Borussia Dortmund v Hamburger SV — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 21 March 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
24 – 4
On target
8 – 4
Shots in box
20 – 3
xG per shot
0.25 – 0.31
Set-piece xG
3.20 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-3.10 – +0.77
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Borussia Dortmund win
70.7%
Draw
19.2%
Hamburger SV win
10.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Borussia Dortmund are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWWWWWDDW last 10
scored 17
from 20.7 xG
conceded 7
from 11.1 xG
Hamburger SV have scored 12 from 11.8 expected and conceded 20 from 18.8 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWDLLLWWWL last 10
scored 12
from 11.8 xG
conceded 20
from 18.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.24–0.74 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.28–0.95 | 2-0 10% | 63% | 55% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Borussia Dortmund 6.10 xGHamburger SV 1.23 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Borussia Dortmund attacking right
Hamburger SV attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 7' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Waldemar Anton | 0.53 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Julian Ryerson |
| 18' |
 Hamburger SV |
Philip Otele | 0.63 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | William Mikelbrencis |
| 23' |
Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Philip Otele |
| 27' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Karim Adeyemi | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Julian Ryerson |
| 31' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marcel Sabitzer |
| 32' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 35' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.30 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 35' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Nico Schlotterbeck | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Julian Ryerson |
| 36' |
Hamburger SV |
Fábio Vieira | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Philip Otele |
| 37' |
Hamburger SV |
Albert Sambi Lokonga | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Fábio Vieira |
| 42' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Julian Ryerson | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 44' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Felix Nmecha | 0.76 | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — | |
| 48' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Felix Nmecha | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Maximilian Beier |
| 51' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Felix Nmecha | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 54' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Felix Nmecha | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 57' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Daniel Svensson |
| 60' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Felix Nmecha |
| 65' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Fabio Silva | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 68' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ramy Bensebaini |
| 72' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Ramy Bensebaini | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 77' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.45 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Julian Ryerson |
| 77' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.60 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 79' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Fabio Silva | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 80' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Carney Chukwuemeka | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 81' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Jobe Bellingham | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 83' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Ramy Bensebaini | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 92' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Fabio Silva |
Players
Borussia Dortmund
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Nmecha MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1.23 | 0.02 | 1.20 |
| Maximilian Beier FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.79 | 0.38 | 0.97 |
| Waldemar Anton DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 1.52 |
| Nico Schlotterbeck DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Jobe Bellingham MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Julian Ryerson DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.01 | 1.12 | 0.59 |
| Gregor Kobel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Svensson DML | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| Marcel Sabitzer MC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.56 |
| Karim Adeyemi FW | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Luca Reggiani DC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Serhou Guirassy Sub | 41 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1.64 | 0.00 | 1.64 |
| Ramy Bensebaini Sub | 41 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1.52 | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| Fabio Silva Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.49 | 0.63 |
| Carney Chukwuemeka Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Julian Brandt Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Hamburger SV
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Sambi Lokonga MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| William Mikelbrencis DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| Warmed Omari DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolai Remberg MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Miro Muheim DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luka Vuskovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jordan Torunarigha DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Heuer Fernandes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ransford Königsdörffer FW | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| Philip Otele FWL | 71 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.63 | 0.17 | 0.81 |
| Fábio Vieira FWR | 70 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.42 | 0.60 |
| Damion Downs Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fabio Baldé Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Otto Stange Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jean-Luc Dompe Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rayan Philippe Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |