Borussia Dortmund v Hamburger SV — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 29 August 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
20 – 9
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
12 – 4
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.09 – 0.02
Goals − xG
+0.67 – -1.11
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Borussia Dortmund win
72.6%
Draw
17.0%
Hamburger SV win
10.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Borussia Dortmund are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWWWWWDDW last 10
scored 17
from 20.7 xG
conceded 7
from 11.1 xG
Hamburger SV have scored 12 from 11.8 expected and conceded 20 from 18.8 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWDLLLWWWL last 10
scored 12
from 11.8 xG
conceded 20
from 18.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.42–0.81 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.70–0.85 | 2-0 11% | 69% | 53% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Borussia Dortmund 1.33 xGHamburger SV 1.11 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Borussia Dortmund attacking right
Hamburger SV attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Borussia Dortmund |
Felix Nmecha | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Giannis Konstantelias |
| 8' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Konstantinos Karetsas |
| 9' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Konstantinos Karetsas | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jobe Bellingham |
| 12' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Felix Nmecha | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 14' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Julian Ryerson |
| 22' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Konstantinos Karetsas | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 32' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Konstantinos Karetsas | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Giannis Konstantelias |
| 32' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Konstantinos Karetsas |
| 34' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Felix Nmecha |
| 40' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Konstantinos Karetsas | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 40' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Konstantinos Karetsas | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Maximilian Beier |
| 40' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 43' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Konstantinos Karetsas |
| 45' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Giannis Konstantelias | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Maximilian Beier |
| 45' |
 Hamburger SV |
Sebastiaan Bornauw | 0.00 | Open Play | Left Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 47' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Jobe Bellingham | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Hamburger SV |
Albert Grønbæk | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 48' |
Hamburger SV |
Patson Daka | 0.28 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Albert Sambi Lokonga |
| 49' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Giannis Konstantelias | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 49' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Konstantinos Karetsas | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Serhou Guirassy |
| 58' |
Hamburger SV |
Patson Daka | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolás Capaldo |
| 66' |
Hamburger SV |
Patson Daka | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Louis Lemke |
| 70' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jobe Bellingham |
| 78' |
Hamburger SV |
Albert Grønbæk | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Albert Sambi Lokonga |
| 79' |
Hamburger SV |
Albert Sambi Lokonga | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolás Capaldo |
| 89' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Joey Veerman | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Serhou Guirassy |
| 90' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Kauã Prates | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jobe Bellingham |
| 93' |
Hamburger SV |
Rayan Philippe | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolai Remberg |
| 93' |
Hamburger SV |
Terem Igobor Moffi | 0.30 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Rayan Philippe |
Players
Borussia Dortmund
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serhou Guirassy FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.19 | 0.61 |
| Jobe Bellingham MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.16 | 0.44 |
| Daniel Svensson DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Kouakou Gadou DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Waldemar Anton DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Gregor Kobel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Maximilian Beier DML | 86 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.34 | 0.18 | 0.54 |
| Konstantinos Karetsas FWR | 76 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0.41 | 0.17 | 0.70 |
| Felix Nmecha MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.34 |
| Julian Ryerson DMR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.27 |
| Giannis Konstantelias FWL | 56 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.18 | 0.67 |
| Marcel Sabitzer Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joey Veerman Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Filippo Mané Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kauã Prates Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Samuele Inácio Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Hamburger SV
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Grønbæk AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Albert Sambi Lokonga MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| Sebastiaan Bornauw DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Nicolás Capaldo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 0.63 |
| Nicolai Remberg MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| Louis Lemke DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Daniel Heuer Fernandes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Jordan Torunarigha DC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bakery Jatta DMR | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Patson Daka FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.72 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| Martin Adeline AMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Terem Igobor Moffi Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Otto Stange Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bilal Nadir Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yussuf Poulsen Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rayan Philippe Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.30 | 0.33 |