Borussia Dortmund v Paderborn — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 September 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated 9 Sep 2026, 09:54 UTC

Borussia Dortmund

13:30 UTC

Paderborn

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 9 Sep, 11:32 · 74h before kick-off

Borussia Dortmund win

68.7%

Draw

19.2%

Paderborn win

12.1%

691912

Raw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.

Top 5 scorelines

2-0 12.8%
1-0 12.2%
2-1 9.6%
1-1 9.1%
3-0 9.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	54.1%	Under 2.5	45.9%
BTTS yes	46.1%	BTTS no	53.9%
Borussia Dortmund 1+	87.7%	Borussia Dortmund 2+	62.0%
Paderborn 1+	52.6%	Paderborn 2+	17.2%

Expected goals 2.10 – 0.75. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

77/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

★ Most likely to land

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger rating, 1734 Elo against 1485.
Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

Paderborn have only 2 matches on record.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Borussia Dortmund have an estimated 68.7% win probability, against 19.2% for the draw and 12.1% for Paderborn. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.10 for Borussia Dortmund and 0.75 for Paderborn.

Why Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger rating, 1734 Elo against 1485. Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 19.2%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Paderborn can win

Away from home Paderborn average 0.69 xG a match. They have had 7 days' rest to Borussia Dortmund's 4. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Borussia Dortmund were missing 0.96 expected goal involvements a match against 0.16.

Key players

Borussia Dortmund's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Serhou Guirassy (0.59), Maximilian Beier (0.39), Julian Ryerson (0.36). Paderborn's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Marvin Pieringer (0.36), Laurin Curda (0.22), Rayan Philippe (0.20).

Availability

Nothing reported for either side.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Borussia Dortmund: 51% possession, 15.8 shots a match, 11.4 faced, 0.54 xG a match from set pieces. Paderborn: 54% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 19.0 faced, 0.11 xG a match from set pieces. Borussia Dortmund's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·

Borussia Dortmund are the model's most likely outcome at 68.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 12.8%. Confidence 77/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

333 sports channels, playing now →

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Borussia Dortmund are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWLLWLWWWW last 10 scored 20 from 22.3 xG conceded 10 from 12.7 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	691912	2.10–0.75	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	642214	1.84–0.71	1-0 14%	47%	43%
deep	652113	1.87–0.70	1-0 14%	48%	43%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund to win	65.2%	65.0%	41.8%	1.55×	1.54
Draw	21.5%	24.4%	24.8%	0.99×	4.09
Paderborn to win	13.4%	13.3%	33.5%	0.40×	7.50

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund & not both score	41.8%	40.1%	19.7%	2.03×	2.50
Borussia Dortmund & both teams score	23.3%	21.9%	22.3%	0.98×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	13.9%	13.3%	19.2%	0.69×	7.55
Draw & not both score	7.6%	8.4%	5.7%	1.46×	11.95
Paderborn & not both score	7.8%	8.4%	15.4%	0.54×	11.94
Paderborn & both teams score	5.6%	8.4%	18.3%	0.46×	11.95

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund & over 1.5	50.9%	48.7%	35.6%	1.37×	2.05
Borussia Dortmund & under 3.5	45.3%	45.2%	21.6%	2.09×	2.21
Borussia Dortmund & over 2.5	37.6%	34.9%	29.6%	1.18×	2.86
Borussia Dortmund & under 2.5	27.6%	26.0%	12.4%	2.10×	3.84
Borussia Dortmund & over 3.5	19.9%	18.0%	20.4%	0.88×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	17.7%	18.0%	15.4%	1.17×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	17.7%	18.0%	15.4%	1.17×	5.56
Borussia Dortmund & under 1.5	14.2%	12.9%	6.4%	2.02×	7.77
Draw & over 1.5	13.9%	12.9%	19.2%	0.67×	7.77
Paderborn & under 3.5	11.2%	12.9%	19.9%	0.65×	7.78
Draw & under 1.5	7.6%	7.9%	5.7%	1.38×	12.69
Paderborn & over 1.5	8.0%	7.9%	27.7%	0.28×	12.69
Paderborn & under 2.5	7.3%	7.9%	10.3%	0.76×	12.69
Paderborn & over 2.5	6.1%	7.9%	23.4%	0.34×	12.69
Paderborn & under 1.5	5.4%	7.9%	6.0%	1.30×	12.69
Draw & over 2.5	3.8%	4.8%	9.5%	0.50×	20.93
Draw & over 3.5	3.8%	4.8%	9.5%	0.50×	20.93
Paderborn & over 3.5	2.1%	4.8%	13.8%	0.35×	20.94

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund (1UP)	74.7%	75.9%	59.7%	1.27×	1.32
Paderborn (1UP)	28.1%	27.0%	52.9%	0.51×	3.71

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund (2UP)	65.2%	68.5%	45.2%	1.52×	1.46
Paderborn (2UP)	13.4%	13.6%	36.5%	0.37×	7.37

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund to win 2nd half	51.5%	51.7%	37.3%	1.39×	1.94
2nd half drawn	34.4%	34.5%	33.4%	1.03×	2.90
Paderborn to win 2nd half	14.1%	12.2%	29.5%	0.41×	8.19

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund (+0.5)	86.6%	88.5%	66.5%	1.33×	1.13
Paderborn (+2.5)	81.0%	82.4%	88.2%	0.93×	1.21
Borussia Dortmund (-0.5)	65.2%	68.7%	41.8%	1.64×	1.46
Paderborn (+1.5)	60.8%	62.9%	75.2%	0.84×	1.59
Borussia Dortmund (-1.5)	39.2%	37.1%	24.8%	1.50×	2.69
Paderborn (+0.5)	34.8%	31.3%	58.2%	0.54×	3.19
Borussia Dortmund (-2.5)	19.0%	17.6%	11.8%	1.50×	5.68
Paderborn (-0.5)	13.4%	11.5%	33.5%	0.34×	8.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn to concede	84.6%	81.3%	79.0%	1.03×	1.23
Paderborn clean sheet	15.4%	18.7%	21.0%	0.89×	5.35

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn to concede in 1st half	56.1%	57.6%	51.9%	1.11×	1.74
Paderborn clean sheet in 1st half	43.9%	42.4%	48.1%	0.88×	2.36

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn under 3.5 goals	99.4%	97.6%	92.8%	1.05×	1.03
Paderborn under 2.5 goals	96.5%	97.6%	79.2%	1.23×	1.03
Paderborn under 1.5 goals	84.3%	81.5%	57.2%	1.42×	1.23
Paderborn over 0.5 goals	50.6%	53.7%	74.7%	0.72×	1.86
Paderborn under 0.5 goals	49.4%	46.3%	25.3%	1.83×	2.16
Paderborn over 1.5 goals	15.7%	18.5%	42.8%	0.43×	5.40
Paderborn over 2.5 goals	3.5%	2.4%	20.8%	0.12×	41.01
Paderborn over 3.5 goals	0.6%	2.4%	7.2%	0.34×	41.17

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn under 1.5 in 1st half	96.3%	95.7%	85.8%	1.11×	1.05
Paderborn under 0.5 in 1st half	74.0%	69.6%	54.5%	1.28×	1.44
Paderborn over 0.5 in 1st half	26.0%	30.4%	45.5%	0.67×	3.29
Paderborn over 1.5 in 1st half	3.7%	4.3%	14.2%	0.30×	23.14

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund (away no bet)	75.2%	73.6%	62.8%	1.17×	1.36
Draw (away no bet)	24.8%	26.4%	37.2%	0.71×	3.78

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn even goals	62.2%	59.1%	53.1%	1.11×	1.69
Paderborn odd goals	37.8%	40.9%	46.9%	0.87×	2.44

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	86.8%	87.9%	76.0%	1.16×	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	13.2%	12.1%	24.0%	0.50×	8.25

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	60.3%	57.6%	72.3%	0.80×	1.74
Both halves under 1.5 goals	39.7%	42.4%	27.7%	1.53×	2.36

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	57.0%	55.4%	66.9%	0.83×	1.81
Borussia Dortmund to score 2+ in a row	50.1%	51.0%	42.5%	1.20×	1.96
Either team to score 3+ in a row	24.3%	19.4%	29.3%	0.66×	5.16
Borussia Dortmund to score 3+ in a row	22.8%	19.3%	17.7%	1.09×	5.17
Paderborn to score 2+ in a row	10.4%	11.9%	34.6%	0.35×	8.38
Paderborn to score 3+ in a row	1.6%	2.6%	12.6%	0.20×	39.11

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	14.2%	11.5%	6.4%	1.80×	8.73
2-0	13.3%	11.5%	6.2%	1.85×	8.73
1-1	10.0%	11.4%	9.9%	1.16×	8.74
2-1	9.4%	7.4%	6.8%	1.09×	13.46
0-0	7.6%	7.4%	5.7%	1.30×	13.46
3-0	8.3%	7.4%	2.7%	2.75×	13.46
0-1	5.4%	7.4%	6.0%	1.23×	13.46
3-1	5.9%	7.4%	6.2%	1.20×	13.46
0-2	1.9%	1.7%	4.5%	0.38×	58.58
0-3	0.4%	1.7%	3.0%	0.57×	58.59
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.6%	1.07×	58.59
1-2	3.5%	1.7%	6.8%	0.25×	58.57
1-3	0.8%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.59
1-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.6%	1.07×	58.59
2-2	3.3%	1.7%	6.4%	0.27×	58.57
2-3	0.8%	1.7%	2.7%	0.63×	58.59
2-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.59
3-2	2.1%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.58
3-3	0.5%	1.7%	3.0%	0.57×	58.59
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.4%	1.19×	58.59
4-0	3.9%	1.7%	3.7%	0.47×	58.57
4-1	2.7%	1.7%	2.2%	0.77×	58.58
4-2	1.0%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.59
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	1.0%	1.79×	58.59
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.5%	3.58×	58.59
Any other score	4.2%	1.7%	5.2%	0.33×	58.57

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund leading at HT (DNB)	78.2%	78.1%	55.7%	1.40×	1.28
Paderborn leading at HT (DNB)	21.8%	21.9%	44.3%	0.49×	4.56

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund or draw (1X)	86.6%	86.7%	66.5%	1.30×	1.15
Borussia Dortmund or Paderborn (12)	78.5%	75.6%	75.2%	1.00×	1.32
Paderborn or draw (X2)	34.8%	35.0%	58.2%	0.60×	2.85

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund or draw at HT	87.2%	88.2%	70.7%	1.25×	1.13
Borussia Dortmund or Paderborn at HT	59.0%	56.8%	65.9%	0.86×	1.76
Paderborn or draw at HT	53.9%	47.6%	63.2%	0.75×	2.10

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund or draw (1UP)	86.6%	91.6%	73.6%	1.25×	1.09
Paderborn or draw (1UP)	34.8%	39.0%	65.0%	0.60×	2.57

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund or draw in 2nd half	85.9%	87.8%	70.5%	1.24×	1.14
Borussia Dortmund or Paderborn in 2nd half	65.6%	65.5%	66.6%	0.98×	1.53
Paderborn or draw in 2nd half	48.5%	48.3%	62.7%	0.77×	2.07

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.4%	61.5%	53.7%	1.15×	1.63
Neither half drawn	38.6%	38.5%	46.3%	0.83×	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund (DNB)	83.0%	80.4%	55.5%	1.45×	1.24
Paderborn (DNB)	17.0%	19.6%	44.5%	0.44×	5.11

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund to score first	67.1%	69.5%	50.8%	1.37×	1.44
Paderborn to score first	25.3%	28.0%	43.6%	0.64×	3.57
No goal scored	7.6%	7.4%	5.7%	1.29×	13.52

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	57.2%	54.8%	40.5%	1.35×	1.83
Both teams to score	42.8%	45.2%	59.5%	0.76×	2.21

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	42.4%	41.5%	28.1%	1.48×	2.41
Both score & over 2.5	32.7%	34.4%	49.8%	0.69×	2.91
Not both score & over 2.5	14.8%	12.3%	12.6%	0.98×	8.11
Both score & under 2.5	10.0%	12.3%	9.9%	1.25×	8.12

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	91.2%	89.1%	79.7%	1.12×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	8.8%	10.9%	20.4%	0.54×	9.17

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	78.5%	75.2%	65.4%	1.15×	1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half	21.5%	24.8%	34.6%	0.72×	4.03

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	67.0%	62.7%	51.6%	1.21×	1.60
Both score 2nd half only	18.4%	15.7%	27.9%	0.56×	6.37
Both score 1st half only	11.5%	10.5%	14.0%	0.75×	9.55
Both score in both halves	3.1%	4.9%	6.8%	0.72×	20.30

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	85.4%	85.2%	79.3%	1.07×	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	14.6%	14.8%	20.7%	0.71×	6.76

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	51.7%	53.3%	66.9%	0.80×	1.88
A half without a goal	48.3%	46.7%	33.1%	1.41×	2.14

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.9%	47.4%	39.0%	1.22×	2.11
0-1 goals	27.2%	26.4%	17.8%	1.48×	3.79
4-6 goals	24.2%	22.8%	39.7%	0.57×	4.38
7+ goals	1.6%	1.8%	3.8%	0.47×	55.27

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn to score exactly 0	49.4%	43.0%	25.3%	1.70×	2.32
Paderborn to score exactly 1	34.8%	33.9%	32.1%	1.06×	2.95
Paderborn to score exactly 2	12.3%	12.8%	22.1%	0.58×	7.80
Paderborn to score 3+	3.5%	4.5%	20.8%	0.22×	22.24

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund to score exactly 1	28.8%	26.5%	29.1%	0.91×	3.77
Borussia Dortmund to score 3+	28.8%	26.5%	27.5%	0.96×	3.77
Borussia Dortmund to score exactly 2	27.0%	26.5%	22.7%	1.17×	3.77
Borussia Dortmund to score exactly 0	15.4%	18.9%	21.0%	0.90×	5.30

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund leading at HT	46.1%	52.4%	36.8%	1.42×	1.91
Draw at HT	41.0%	43.2%	34.1%	1.27×	2.32
Paderborn leading at HT	12.8%	11.8%	29.3%	0.40×	8.47

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund -1: 1	39.2%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
Borussia Dortmund -1: 2	34.8%	30.0%	—	—	3.33
Borussia Dortmund -1: X	25.9%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund (0:1)	39.2%	37.3%	24.8%	1.51×	2.68
Paderborn (0:1)	34.8%	30.0%	58.2%	0.52×	3.33
Draw (0:1)	25.9%	27.0%	17.2%	1.57×	3.70

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn (0:2)	60.8%	67.1%	75.2%	0.89×	1.49
Draw (0:2)	20.2%	20.3%	13.2%	1.54×	4.93
Borussia Dortmund (0:2)	19.0%	15.3%	11.8%	1.30×	6.53

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn (0:3)	81.0%	85.0%	88.2%	0.96×	1.18
Draw (0:3)	11.4%	10.0%	5.1%	1.97×	9.99
Borussia Dortmund (0:3)	7.6%	5.8%	6.8%	0.85×	17.23

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn (0:4)	92.4%	94.7%	93.2%	1.02×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	5.0%	4.6%	5.2%	0.87×	21.82
Borussia Dortmund (0:4)	2.5%	1.2%	1.7%	0.69×	83.18

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund (1:0)	86.6%	86.3%	66.5%	1.30×	1.16
Draw (1:0)	9.8%	6.9%	16.5%	0.42×	14.45
Paderborn (1:0)	3.6%	3.2%	17.2%	0.18×	31.51

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund (2:0)	96.4%	96.9%	82.8%	1.17×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	2.9%	2.3%	10.0%	0.23×	44.23
Paderborn (2:0)	0.7%	2.3%	7.3%	0.31×	44.37

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	44.6%	46.7%	46.8%	1.00×	2.14
1st half highest scoring	29.3%	26.6%	26.4%	1.00×	3.77
Halves equal	26.1%	26.5%	26.9%	0.99×	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund to concede	50.6%	53.1%	74.7%	0.71×	1.88
Borussia Dortmund clean sheet	49.4%	46.9%	25.3%	1.86×	2.13

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund clean sheet in 1st half	74.0%	68.9%	54.5%	1.26×	1.45
Borussia Dortmund to concede in 1st half	26.0%	31.1%	45.5%	0.68×	3.21

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund under 3.5 goals	88.0%	87.2%	88.6%	0.99×	1.15
Borussia Dortmund over 0.5 goals	84.6%	82.2%	79.0%	1.04×	1.22
Borussia Dortmund under 2.5 goals	71.2%	74.2%	72.5%	1.02×	1.35
Borussia Dortmund over 1.5 goals	55.8%	58.8%	50.1%	1.17×	1.70
Borussia Dortmund under 1.5 goals	44.2%	41.2%	49.9%	0.83×	2.43
Borussia Dortmund over 2.5 goals	28.8%	25.8%	27.5%	0.94×	3.88
Borussia Dortmund under 0.5 goals	15.4%	17.8%	21.0%	0.85×	5.61
Borussia Dortmund over 3.5 goals	12.0%	12.8%	11.4%	1.12×	7.84

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund under 1.5 in 1st half	80.0%	84.5%	80.7%	1.05×	1.18
Borussia Dortmund over 0.5 in 1st half	56.1%	57.2%	51.9%	1.10×	1.75
Borussia Dortmund under 0.5 in 1st half	43.9%	42.8%	48.1%	0.89×	2.34
Borussia Dortmund over 1.5 in 1st half	20.0%	15.5%	19.3%	0.80×	6.45

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	61.7%	60.1%	42.5%	1.41×	1.66
Paderborn (home no bet)	38.3%	39.9%	57.5%	0.69×	2.51

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund even goals	51.2%	50.6%	52.5%	0.97×	1.98
Borussia Dortmund odd goals	48.8%	49.4%	47.5%	1.04×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	32.5%	32.5%	23.2%	1.40×	3.08
HT 1-0	26.7%	28.6%	19.4%	1.47×	3.49
HT 2-0	11.0%	11.0%	9.6%	1.16×	9.06
HT 0-1	9.8%	7.1%	16.6%	0.43×	14.06
HT 1-1	8.1%	7.1%	9.7%	0.73×	14.09
Any other HT score	5.4%	7.1%	6.7%	1.06×	14.13
HT 2-1	3.3%	2.2%	4.3%	0.52×	44.68
HT 0-2	1.5%	2.2%	7.0%	0.32×	44.82
HT 1-2	1.2%	2.2%	3.5%	0.64×	44.84
HT 2-2	0.5%	2.2%	1.3%	1.75×	44.90

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund at HT / Borussia Dortmund at FT	41.6%	43.1%	28.2%	1.53×	2.32
Draw at HT / Borussia Dortmund at FT	21.1%	22.1%	10.7%	2.07×	4.53
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	14.1%	12.7%	13.9%	0.92×	7.88
Paderborn at HT / Paderborn at FT	6.8%	6.0%	20.2%	0.30×	16.59
Draw at HT / Paderborn at FT	5.8%	6.0%	9.9%	0.61×	16.62
Borussia Dortmund at HT / Draw at FT	3.8%	3.4%	5.1%	0.67×	29.13
Paderborn at HT / Draw at FT	3.6%	3.4%	6.1%	0.57×	29.14
Paderborn at HT / Borussia Dortmund at FT	2.5%	3.4%	3.3%	1.02×	29.19
Borussia Dortmund at HT / Paderborn at FT	0.8%	3.4%	3.8%	0.89×	29.25

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund to score last	67.1%	69.7%	50.0%	1.39×	1.43
Paderborn to score last	25.3%	27.1%	44.4%	0.61×	3.70
No goal scored	7.6%	7.4%	5.7%	1.29×	13.52

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.4%	92.7%	94.3%	0.98×	1.08
Borussia Dortmund to lead by 1 at any time	74.7%	74.3%	59.7%	1.24×	1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	50.5%	50.5%	55.9%	0.90×	1.98
Borussia Dortmund to lead by 2 at any time	44.3%	39.1%	33.3%	1.17×	2.56
Paderborn to lead by 1 at any time	28.1%	25.2%	52.9%	0.48×	3.97
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	22.3%	19.6%	25.5%	0.77×	5.10
Borussia Dortmund to lead by 3 at any time	21.2%	19.6%	15.6%	1.25×	5.11
Paderborn to lead by 2 at any time	6.3%	6.5%	23.4%	0.28×	15.38
Paderborn to lead by 3 at any time	1.1%	1.5%	10.0%	0.15×	64.86

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.7%	87.4%	83.3%	1.05×	1.14
1-4 goals	80.5%	83.5%	72.7%	1.15×	1.20
2-6 goals	71.1%	72.4%	78.5%	0.92×	1.38
2-5 goals	68.1%	69.0%	71.2%	0.97×	1.45
1-3 goals	66.5%	69.0%	51.0%	1.35×	1.45
2-4 goals	60.9%	63.5%	60.6%	1.05×	1.58
2-3 goals	46.9%	48.7%	39.0%	1.25×	2.06
3-6 goals	45.9%	48.7%	58.5%	0.83×	2.06
1-2 goals	44.9%	43.6%	32.3%	1.35×	2.29
3-5 goals	42.8%	43.6%	51.2%	0.85×	2.29
3-4 goals	35.6%	39.2%	40.5%	0.97×	2.55
4-6 goals	24.2%	24.5%	39.7%	0.62×	4.09
4-5 goals	21.1%	24.4%	32.4%	0.75×	4.09
5-6 goals	10.3%	14.8%	18.1%	0.82×	6.74
7+ goals	1.6%	2.5%	3.8%	0.66×	39.51

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund never behind	64.3%	67.9%	47.1%	1.44×	1.47
Paderborn never behind	17.7%	18.5%	40.3%	0.46×	5.40

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.7%	50.8%	44.7%	1.14×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.3%	49.2%	55.3%	0.89×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.3%	57.8%	52.4%	1.10×	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	44.7%	42.2%	47.6%	0.89×	2.37

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.8%	52.0%	53.0%	0.98×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.2%	48.0%	47.0%	1.02×	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	95.3%	95.5%	88.9%	1.07×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	92.4%	92.3%	94.3%	0.98×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	88.1%	87.7%	78.2%	1.12×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	74.2%	72.5%	56.6%	1.28×	1.38
Over 1.5 goals	72.8%	72.5%	82.2%	0.88×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	52.5%	52.4%	37.8%	1.39×	1.91
Over 2.5 goals	47.5%	47.6%	62.2%	0.77×	2.10
Under 1.5 goals	27.2%	27.5%	17.8%	1.54×	3.64
Over 3.5 goals	25.8%	27.5%	43.4%	0.63×	3.64
Over 4.5 goals	11.9%	12.3%	21.8%	0.57×	8.11
Under 0.5 goals	7.6%	7.7%	5.7%	1.35×	12.95
Over 5.5 goals	4.7%	4.5%	11.1%	0.41×	22.17

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.3%	97.3%	95.9%	1.01×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	94.9%	92.5%	87.5%	1.06×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	86.2%	86.7%	72.2%	1.20×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	67.0%	67.3%	46.6%	1.45×	1.49
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	63.6%	62.1%	77.7%	0.80×	1.61
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	36.4%	37.9%	22.3%	1.70×	2.64
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	33.0%	32.7%	53.4%	0.61×	3.06
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	13.8%	13.3%	27.8%	0.48×	7.53
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	5.1%	7.5%	12.5%	0.60×	13.28
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.7%	2.7%	4.1%	0.67×	36.40

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.5%	89.4%	84.7%	1.06×	1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half	69.0%	69.1%	58.9%	1.17×	1.45
Over 0.5 in 1st half	67.5%	69.0%	76.8%	0.90×	1.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half	32.5%	31.0%	23.2%	1.33×	3.23
Over 1.5 in 1st half	31.0%	30.9%	41.1%	0.75×	3.23
Over 2.5 in 1st half	10.5%	10.6%	15.3%	0.70×	9.41

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	82.1%	82.9%	73.6%	1.13×	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	76.5%	79.9%	84.4%	0.95×	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	57.5%	54.9%	44.7%	1.23×	1.82
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	42.5%	45.1%	55.3%	0.82×	2.22
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	23.5%	20.1%	15.6%	1.29×	4.98
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	17.9%	17.1%	26.4%	0.65×	5.85

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn not to score in both halves	91.4%	90.0%	72.6%	1.24×	1.11
Borussia Dortmund not to score in both halves	63.6%	63.5%	64.7%	0.98×	1.57
Borussia Dortmund to score in both halves	36.4%	36.5%	35.4%	1.03×	2.74
Paderborn to score in both halves	8.6%	10.0%	27.4%	0.36×	10.03

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	42.8%	46.6%	59.5%	0.78×	2.15
Only Borussia Dortmund scores	41.8%	46.6%	19.7%	2.36×	2.15
Only Paderborn scores	7.8%	7.2%	15.4%	0.47×	13.94
Neither team scores	7.6%	7.2%	5.7%	1.25×	13.94

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.3%	25.0%	20.2%	1.24×	4.01
Exactly 3 goals	21.7%	22.6%	18.9%	1.20×	4.42
Exactly 1 goals	19.6%	17.5%	12.2%	1.43×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	14.0%	12.1%	21.8%	0.55×	8.29
Exactly 0 goals	7.6%	7.6%	5.7%	1.33×	13.13
Exactly 5 goals	7.2%	7.6%	10.8%	0.70×	13.14
6 or more goals	4.7%	4.4%	11.1%	0.40×	22.60

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	42.5%	44.4%	55.3%	0.80×	2.26
1 goal in 2nd half	34.0%	33.9%	29.3%	1.16×	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	23.5%	23.5%	15.6%	1.51×	4.25

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn not to win both halves	98.2%	97.2%	90.6%	1.07×	1.03
Borussia Dortmund not to win both halves	76.3%	75.1%	84.1%	0.89×	1.33
Borussia Dortmund to win both halves	23.7%	24.9%	15.9%	1.56×	4.02
Paderborn to win both halves	1.8%	2.8%	9.4%	0.30×	36.00

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn to win neither half	74.9%	73.2%	50.6%	1.44×	1.37
Borussia Dortmund to win either half	73.9%	73.1%	58.1%	1.26×	1.37
Borussia Dortmund to win neither half	26.1%	26.9%	41.9%	0.64×	3.72
Paderborn to win either half	25.1%	26.8%	49.4%	0.54×	3.73

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn not to win to nil	92.2%	92.0%	84.6%	1.09×	1.09
Borussia Dortmund not to win to nil	58.2%	58.9%	80.3%	0.73×	1.70
Borussia Dortmund to win to nil	41.8%	41.1%	19.7%	2.09×	2.43
Paderborn to win to nil	7.8%	8.0%	15.4%	0.52×	12.56

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund by 1	25.9%	27.8%	17.2%	1.62×	3.59
Draw	21.5%	24.1%	24.8%	0.97×	4.14
Borussia Dortmund by 2	20.2%	24.1%	13.2%	1.83×	4.14
Borussia Dortmund by 3+	19.0%	16.9%	11.8%	1.44×	5.90
Paderborn by 1	9.8%	7.3%	16.5%	0.44×	13.79
Paderborn by 2	2.9%	2.7%	10.0%	0.27×	36.98
Paderborn by 3+	0.7%	2.7%	7.3%	0.37×	37.05