Borussia Dortmund v St. Pauli — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 17 January 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 9
On target
5 – 5
Shots in box
7 – 7
xG per shot
0.25 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
1.27 – 0.15
Goals − xG
+0.45 – +1.47
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Borussia Dortmund win
66.6%
Draw
23.0%
St. Pauli win
10.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Borussia Dortmund are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLLWLWWWW last 10
scored 20
from 22.3 xG
conceded 10
from 12.7 xG
St. Pauli are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLDLDLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 10.7 xG
conceded 20
from 22.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.91–0.64 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.14–0.85 | 2-0 12% | 57% | 51% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Borussia Dortmund 2.55 xGSt. Pauli 0.53 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Borussia Dortmund attacking right
St. Pauli attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12' |
 Borussia Dortmund |
Julian Brandt | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 17' |
 St. Pauli |
Martijn Kaars | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Eric Smith |
| 21' |
St. Pauli |
Lars Ritzka | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 25' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Julian Brandt | 0.15 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 26' |
St. Pauli |
Pereira Lage | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Martijn Kaars |
| 38' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Nico Schlotterbeck | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Julian Ryerson |
| 45' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Julian Brandt | 0.49 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Karim Adeyemi |
| 53' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Karim Adeyemi | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Fabio Silva |
| 61' |
St. Pauli |
James Sands | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Goal | Eric Smith |
| 65' |
St. Pauli |
Ricky-Jade Jones | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | James Sands |
| 71' |
St. Pauli |
Ricky-Jade Jones | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | Eric Smith |
| 77' |
St. Pauli |
Ricky-Jade Jones | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Joel Chima Fujita |
| 79' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Yan Couto |
| 80' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Nico Schlotterbeck | 0.12 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 80' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Waldemar Anton | 0.14 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Daniel Svensson |
| 81' |
St. Pauli |
Joel Chima Fujita | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Eric Smith |
| 83' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yan Couto |
| 94' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Emre Can | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 96' |
St. Pauli |
Ricky-Jade Jones | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Borussia Dortmund
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emre Can DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Nico Schlotterbeck DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Waldemar Anton DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| Daniel Svensson DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.02 |
| Gregor Kobel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jobe Bellingham MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Julian Brandt AMC | 86 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.04 | 0.00 | 1.24 |
| Felix Nmecha MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| Karim Adeyemi AMC | 74 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.35 | 0.49 | 0.84 |
| Julian Ryerson DMR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.49 |
| Fabio Silva FW | 74 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| Serhou Guirassy Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Maximilian Beier Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yan Couto Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Carney Chukwuemeka Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Salih Özcan Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
St. Pauli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pereira Lage AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| James Sands MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| Joel Chima Fujita AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.30 |
| Nikola Vasilj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Karol Mets DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hauke Wahl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Eric Smith MC | 90 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| Arkadiusz Pyrka DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Martijn Kaars FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Lars Ritzka DML | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Adam Dzwigala DC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Ricky-Jade Jones Sub | 23 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Louis Oppie Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Tomoya Ando Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |