Borussia Dortmund v Union Berlin — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 22 February 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
24 – 7
On target
8 – 1
Shots in box
20 – 6
xG per shot
0.23 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.14 – 0.24
Goals − xG
+0.52 – -0.37
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Borussia Dortmund win
42.8%
Draw
31.0%
Union Berlin win
26.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Borussia Dortmund are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLLWLWWWW last 10
scored 20
from 22.3 xG
conceded 10
from 12.7 xG
Union Berlin have scored 16 from 14.7 expected and conceded 23 from 23.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LDLLLDWWDL last 10
scored 16
from 14.7 xG
conceded 23
from 23.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.46–1.11 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Borussia Dortmund 5.48 xGUnion Berlin 0.37 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Borussia Dortmund attacking right
Union Berlin attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Union Berlin |
Danilho Doekhi | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Josip Juranovic |
| 6' |
 Borussia Dortmund |
Karim Adeyemi | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Julian Ryerson |
| 6' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Pascal Groß | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Julian Ryerson |
| 24' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Julian Ryerson | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Karim Adeyemi |
| 24' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Karim Adeyemi | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 24' |
Union Berlin |
Diogo Leite | 0.00 | Open Play | Left Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 26' |
Union Berlin |
Benedict Hollerbach | 0.08 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 27' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 28' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 28' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Pascal Groß | 0.63 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Karim Adeyemi |
| 30' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Karim Adeyemi | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 31' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 34' |
Union Berlin |
Benedict Hollerbach | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Andras Schafer |
| 35' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Karim Adeyemi | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nico Schlotterbeck |
| 39' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.83 | Open Play | — | Goal | Pascal Groß |
| 41' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 41' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Karim Adeyemi |
| 51' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Karim Adeyemi |
| 53' |
Union Berlin |
Danilho Doekhi | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Josip Juranovic |
| 56' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Julian Ryerson |
| 60' |
Union Berlin |
Benedict Hollerbach | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Tom Rothe |
| 61' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 70' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Pascal Groß | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 71' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marcel Sabitzer |
| 73' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Karim Adeyemi | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Carney Chukwuemeka |
| 74' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 74' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Pascal Groß |
| 79' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.97 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Maximilian Beier |
| 82' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.66 | Open Play | — | Goal | Pascal Groß |
| 87' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Salih Özcan | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 88' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.32 | Open Play | — | Goal | Pascal Groß |
Players
Borussia Dortmund
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maximilian Beier AML | 90 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1.05 | 0.97 | 2.02 |
| Pascal Groß DMC | 90 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0.80 | 2.30 | 3.87 |
| Karim Adeyemi AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0.45 | 0.85 | 2.09 |
| Nico Schlotterbeck DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.94 |
| Gregor Kobel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Emre Can DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Serhou Guirassy FW | 86 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 3.12 | 0.00 | 3.07 |
| Julian Ryerson DR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.17 | 0.58 |
| Marcel Sabitzer DMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 1.78 |
| Giovanni Reyna AMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Ramy Bensebaini DL | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.94 |
| Carney Chukwuemeka Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1.45 |
| Daniel Svensson Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Salih Özcan Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jamie Bynoe-Gittens Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yan Couto Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
Union Berlin
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danilho Doekhi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrej Ilic FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Josip Juranovic DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.00 |
| Tom Rothe DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Diogo Leite DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Frederik Rönnow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andras Schafer AMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Benedict Hollerbach AML | 73 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Woo-Yeong Jeong AMR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Tousart DMC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rani Khedira DMC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| László Bénes Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Janik Haberer Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tim Skarke Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marin Ljubicic Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leopold Querfeld Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |