Borussia Dortmund v Union Berlin — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 31 August 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 12
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
9 – 8
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.13 – 0.37
Goals − xG
+1.17 – -0.97
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Borussia Dortmund win
63.6%
Draw
20.6%
Union Berlin win
15.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Borussia Dortmund are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLLWLWWWW last 10
scored 20
from 22.3 xG
conceded 10
from 12.7 xG
Union Berlin have scored 16 from 14.7 expected and conceded 23 from 23.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LDLLLDWWDL last 10
scored 16
from 14.7 xG
conceded 23
from 23.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.29–1.08 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.32–0.99 | 2-0 10% | 64% | 57% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Borussia Dortmund 1.83 xGUnion Berlin 0.97 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Borussia Dortmund attacking right
Union Berlin attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Christopher Trimmel |
| 5' |
Union Berlin |
Christopher Trimmel | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ilyas Ansah |
| 15' |
 Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yan Couto |
| 22' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 32' |
Union Berlin |
Janik Haberer | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ilyas Ansah |
| 33' |
Union Berlin |
Danilho Doekhi | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Christopher Trimmel |
| 35' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Yan Couto | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 36' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Julian Brandt |
| 38' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Julian Brandt |
| 38' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 41' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 43' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.58 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Yan Couto |
| 46' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Christopher Trimmel |
| 47' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Christopher Trimmel |
| 47' |
Union Berlin |
Tom Rothe | 0.10 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Andrej Ilic |
| 55' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ramy Bensebaini |
| 57' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Maximilian Beier |
| 62' |
Union Berlin |
Janik Haberer | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 78' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Marcel Sabitzer | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Julian Ryerson |
| 80' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Felix Nmecha | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 83' |
Union Berlin |
Leopold Querfeld | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Aljoscha Kemlein |
| 91' |
Union Berlin |
Leopold Querfeld | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 92' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Woo-Yeong Jeong |
Players
Borussia Dortmund
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serhou Guirassy FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1.65 | 0.00 | 1.59 |
| Marcel Sabitzer MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Yan Couto DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.63 | 0.89 |
| Daniel Svensson DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Waldemar Anton DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Gregor Kobel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Julian Brandt AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| Ramy Bensebaini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1.32 |
| Maximilian Beier AMC | 81 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 0.51 |
| Aaron Anselmino DC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Jobe Bellingham MC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Felix Nmecha Sub | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Julian Ryerson Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Carney Chukwuemeka Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Karim Adeyemi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pascal Groß Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Union Berlin
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrej Ilic FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.69 | 0.10 | 0.61 |
| Tom Rothe DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Leopold Querfeld DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Danilho Doekhi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Rani Khedira MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Frederik Rönnow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Janik Haberer MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Robert Skov DL | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ilyas Ansah FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| Christopher Trimmel DR | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.01 | 0.25 | 0.11 |
| Alex Kral MC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Tim Skarke Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Woo-Yeong Jeong Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Oliver Burke Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Derrick Köhn Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aljoscha Kemlein Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |