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Borussia Dortmund v VfB Stuttgart — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 8 February 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425

Bundesliga xG

Shots
16 – 4
On target
5 – 2
Shots in box
10 – 3
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.29 – 0.28
Goals − xG
-0.07 – +1.55
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.30.60.91.20'15'30'45'60'75'90'Julian Chabot 60' — goalJulian Brandt 80' — goal
Borussia Dortmund 1.07 xGVfB Stuttgart 0.45 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Jamie Leweling 5' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Ramy Bensebaini 10' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, From Corner)Ramy Bensebaini 11' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, From Corner)Jamie Bynoe-Gittens 21' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Jamie Bynoe-Gittens 26' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Julian Brandt 29' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Direct Freekick)Karim Adeyemi 36' — Saved Shot (0.34 xG, Open Play)Jamie Bynoe-Gittens 40' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Karim Adeyemi 44' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Serhou Guirassy 45' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Karim Adeyemi 48' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Waldemar Anton 49' — Own Goal (0.00 xG, Open Play)Chris Führich 49' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Julian Chabot 60' — Goal (0.28 xG, From Corner)Deniz Undav 64' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Serhou Guirassy 65' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Jamie Bynoe-Gittens 67' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Jamie Bynoe-Gittens 73' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Jamie Bynoe-Gittens 77' — Blocked Shot (0.15 xG, Open Play)Julian Brandt 80' — Goal (0.03 xG, From Corner)
Borussia Dortmund attacking right VfB Stuttgart attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
5' VfB Stuttgart Jamie Leweling 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Chris Führich
10' Borussia Dortmund Ramy Bensebaini 0.07 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot Serhou Guirassy
11' Borussia Dortmund Ramy Bensebaini 0.07 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot Marcel Sabitzer
21' Borussia Dortmund Jamie Bynoe-Gittens 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Marcel Sabitzer
26' Borussia Dortmund Jamie Bynoe-Gittens 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Gregor Kobel
29' Borussia Dortmund Julian Brandt 0.05 Direct Freekick Right Foot Missed Shot
36' Borussia Dortmund Karim Adeyemi 0.34 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Julian Ryerson
40' Borussia Dortmund Jamie Bynoe-Gittens 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Julian Brandt
44' Borussia Dortmund Karim Adeyemi 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Serhou Guirassy
45' Borussia Dortmund Serhou Guirassy 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
48' Borussia Dortmund Karim Adeyemi 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Julian Brandt
49' Borussia Dortmund Waldemar Anton 0.00 Open Play Left Foot Own Goal
49' VfB Stuttgart Chris Führich 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Jamie Leweling
60' VfB Stuttgart Julian Chabot 0.28 From Corner Left Foot Goal Jamie Leweling
64' VfB Stuttgart Deniz Undav 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
65' Borussia Dortmund Serhou Guirassy 0.05 From Corner Missed Shot Julian Ryerson
67' Borussia Dortmund Jamie Bynoe-Gittens 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
73' Borussia Dortmund Jamie Bynoe-Gittens 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot
77' Borussia Dortmund Jamie Bynoe-Gittens 0.15 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Pascal Groß
80' Borussia Dortmund Julian Brandt 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Goal Pascal Groß

Players

Borussia Dortmund

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Serhou Guirassy FW 90 0 0 2 2 0.08 0.15 0.15
Julian Brandt AMC 90 1 0 2 2 0.08 0.09 0.67
Marcel Sabitzer DMC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.11 0.69
Julian Ryerson DR 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.39 0.58
Gregor Kobel GK 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.02
Waldemar Anton DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.20
Emre Can DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.69
Jamie Bynoe-Gittens AML 86 0 0 6 0 0.30 0.00 0.28
Ramy Bensebaini DL 86 0 0 2 0 0.14 0.00 0.61
Pascal Groß DMC 86 0 1 0 2 0.00 0.18 0.17
Karim Adeyemi AMR 72 0 0 3 0 0.48 0.00 0.50
Maximilian Beier Sub 18 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Daniel Svensson Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Julien Duranville Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Giovanni Reyna Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

VfB Stuttgart

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Julian Chabot DC 90 1 0 1 0 0.28 0.00 0.00
Ramon Hendriks DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Maximilian Mittelstädt DML 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Leonidas Stergiou DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Alexander Nübel GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.12
Angelo Stiller MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.17
Atakan Karazor MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jamie Leweling DMR 87 0 1 1 2 0.06 0.34 0.12
Enzo Millot AMC 78 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Chris Führich AMC 71 0 0 1 1 0.06 0.06 0.12
Deniz Undav FW 71 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.05
Joshua Vagnoman Sub 19 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ermedin Demirovic Sub 19 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Yannik Keitel Sub 12 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nick Woltemade Sub 3 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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