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Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 25 January 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425

Bundesliga xG

Shots
8 – 14
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
5 – 8
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.20 – 0.14
Goals − xG
+0.50 – +0.87
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.40.81.31.70'15'30'45'60'75'90'Serhou Guirassy 27' — goalLeonardo Bittencourt 64' — goalMarvin Ducksch 71' — goal
Borussia Dortmund 1.50 xGWerder Bremen 1.13 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Nico Schlotterbeck 3' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Marvin Ducksch 22' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Direct Freekick)Serhou Guirassy 27' — Goal (0.93 xG, Open Play)Julian Brandt 38' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Senne Lynen 47' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Marco Friedl 50' — Own Goal (0.00 xG, Set Piece)Julian Brandt 58' — Saved Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Leonardo Bittencourt 64' — Goal (0.03 xG, Open Play)Leonardo Bittencourt 67' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Leonardo Bittencourt 69' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Marvin Ducksch 71' — Goal (0.47 xG, Open Play)Justin Njinmah 78' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Jens Stage 82' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Leonardo Bittencourt 83' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Maximilian Beier 85' — Blocked Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Maximilian Beier 89' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Set Piece)Pascal Groß 89' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Direct Freekick)Waldemar Anton 89' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Set Piece)Jens Stage 91' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Leonardo Bittencourt 91' — Saved Shot (0.16 xG, Open Play)Jens Stage 93' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, From Corner)Issa Kabore 94' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)
Borussia Dortmund attacking right Werder Bremen attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
3' Borussia Dortmund Nico Schlotterbeck 0.04 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot Jamie Bynoe-Gittens
22' Werder Bremen Marvin Ducksch 0.04 Direct Freekick Right Foot Missed Shot
27' Borussia Dortmund Serhou Guirassy 0.93 Open Play Goal Julian Brandt
38' Borussia Dortmund Julian Brandt 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
47' Werder Bremen Senne Lynen 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Romano Schmid
50' Werder Bremen Marco Friedl 0.00 Set Piece Left Foot Own Goal
58' Borussia Dortmund Julian Brandt 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Karim Adeyemi
64' Werder Bremen Leonardo Bittencourt 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Goal Milos Veljkovic
67' Werder Bremen Leonardo Bittencourt 0.02 Set Piece Left Foot Missed Shot
69' Werder Bremen Leonardo Bittencourt 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Mitchell Weiser
71' Werder Bremen Marvin Ducksch 0.47 Open Play Right Foot Goal Jens Stage
78' Werder Bremen Justin Njinmah 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Romano Schmid
82' Werder Bremen Jens Stage 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Issa Kabore
83' Werder Bremen Leonardo Bittencourt 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Romano Schmid
85' Borussia Dortmund Maximilian Beier 0.14 Open Play Blocked Shot
89' Borussia Dortmund Maximilian Beier 0.05 Set Piece Left Foot Saved Shot
89' Borussia Dortmund Pascal Groß 0.05 Direct Freekick Right Foot Saved Shot
89' Borussia Dortmund Waldemar Anton 0.06 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot
91' Werder Bremen Jens Stage 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
91' Werder Bremen Leonardo Bittencourt 0.16 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Issa Kabore
93' Werder Bremen Jens Stage 0.08 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
94' Werder Bremen Issa Kabore 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Mitchell Weiser

Players

Werder Bremen

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Marvin Ducksch FW 90 1 0 2 0 0.51 0.00 0.49
Jens Stage MC 90 0 1 3 1 0.20 0.47 0.88
Anthony Jung DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.21
Romano Schmid MC 90 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.12 0.32
Mitchell Weiser DMR 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.09 0.25
Milos Veljkovic DC 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.24
Michael Zetterer GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Marco Friedl DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.37
Senne Lynen MC 64 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.01
Derrick Köhn DML 64 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Marco Grüll FW 64 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Leonardo Bittencourt Sub 26 1 0 5 0 0.34 0.00 0.37
Justin Njinmah Sub 26 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.12
Issa Kabore Sub 26 0 0 1 2 0.02 0.18 0.32
Oliver Burke Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Borussia Dortmund

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Serhou Guirassy FW 90 1 0 1 0 0.93 0.00 0.93
Pascal Groß MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 1.04
Gregor Kobel GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Julian Ryerson DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.93
Emre Can DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.93
Ramy Bensebaini DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.93
Julian Brandt MC 81 0 1 2 1 0.23 0.93 1.16
Marcel Sabitzer Sub 79 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Karim Adeyemi FWR 65 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.11 0.11
Jamie Bynoe-Gittens FWL 65 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.93
Maximilian Beier Sub 25 0 0 2 0 0.20 0.00 0.14
Julien Duranville Sub 25 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nico Schlotterbeck DC 20 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.00
Felix Nmecha MC 11 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Waldemar Anton Sub 9 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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