Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Tuesday 13 January 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 6
On target
7 – 3
Shots in box
14 – 3
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.59 – 0.07
Goals − xG
+0.64 – -0.40
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Borussia Dortmund win
63.5%
Draw
22.9%
Werder Bremen win
13.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Borussia Dortmund are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLLWLWWWW last 10
scored 20
from 22.3 xG
conceded 10
from 12.7 xG
Werder Bremen are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLWDLLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 9.3 xG
conceded 18
from 21.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.02–0.84 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.05–1.03 | 2-1 10% | 59% | 56% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Borussia Dortmund 2.37 xGWerder Bremen 0.40 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Borussia Dortmund attacking right
Werder Bremen attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Fabio Silva |
| 2' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Fabio Silva | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Felix Nmecha |
| 3' |
 Werder Bremen |
Justin Njinmah | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marco Grüll |
| 4' |
Werder Bremen |
Marco Grüll | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 10' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Nico Schlotterbeck | 0.59 | From Corner | — | Goal | Julian Ryerson |
| 17' |
Werder Bremen |
Justin Njinmah | 0.26 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 31' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Carney Chukwuemeka | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Fabio Silva |
| 36' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Marcel Sabitzer | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Felix Nmecha |
| 46' |
Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Isaac Schmidt |
| 49' |
Werder Bremen |
Marco Grüll | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Carney Chukwuemeka | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Fabio Silva |
| 54' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Fabio Silva | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 54' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Fabio Silva |
| 54' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 65' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Marcel Sabitzer | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Maximilian Beier |
| 74' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Marcel Sabitzer | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Felix Nmecha |
| 76' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Waldemar Anton | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Nico Schlotterbeck |
| 79' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Fabio Silva | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Marcel Sabitzer |
| 82' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 86' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Nico Schlotterbeck | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 86' |
Werder Bremen |
Jovan Milosevic | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Cameron Puertas |
| 89' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Nico Schlotterbeck | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 89' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Yan Couto | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Serhou Guirassy |
| 92' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nico Schlotterbeck |
Players
Werder Bremen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yukinari Sugawara DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Jens Stage MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Karim Coulibaly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Marco Friedl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Mio Backhaus GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Amos Pieper DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Senne Lynen MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Justin Njinmah FW | 82 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Romano Schmid AMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| Isaac Schmidt DML | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.06 |
| Marco Grüll AMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Jovan Milosevic Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cameron Puertas Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Olivier Deman Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Samuel Mbangula Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Borussia Dortmund
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Schlotterbeck DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.72 | 0.13 | 0.64 |
| Marcel Sabitzer MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.05 | 0.33 |
| Yan Couto DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Waldemar Anton DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Felix Nmecha MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.38 |
| Gregor Kobel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fabio Silva FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.14 | 0.28 | 0.42 |
| Maximilian Beier AMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.51 | 0.07 | 0.67 |
| Carney Chukwuemeka AMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Julian Ryerson DML | 68 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.59 | 0.00 |
| Niklas Süle DC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Emre Can Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Serhou Guirassy Sub | 22 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.52 | 0.12 | 0.64 |
| Daniel Svensson Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Jobe Bellingham Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Karim Adeyemi Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |