Borussia M.Gladbach v Augsburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 22 February 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 17
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
6 – 7
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.33 – 0.13
Goals − xG
-0.83 – +1.26
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Borussia M.Gladbach win
50.8%
Draw
28.3%
Augsburg win
20.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Borussia M.Gladbach are conceding fewer than expected — 3.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLDDWLWLL last 10
scored 15
from 14.1 xG
conceded 17
from 20.6 xG
Augsburg are finishing below their chances — 2.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDWDWWLWW last 10
scored 21
from 23.8 xG
conceded 17
from 20.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.72–1.05 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Borussia M.Gladbach 0.83 xGAugsburg 1.74 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Borussia M.Gladbach attacking right
Augsburg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Borussia M.Gladbach |
Philipp Sander | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 23' |
 Augsburg |
Phillip Tietz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Frank Onyeka |
| 27' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Tim Kleindienst | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Robin Hack |
| 32' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 32' |
Augsburg |
Phillip Tietz | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Fredrik Jensen |
| 35' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Joe Scally | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 35' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Ko Itakura | 0.19 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Robin Hack |
| 35' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Nico Elvedi | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 41' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Robin Hack | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Tim Kleindienst |
| 46' |
Augsburg |
Fredrik Jensen | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Marius Wolf |
| 48' |
Augsburg |
Phillip Tietz | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Cédric Zesiger |
| 49' |
Augsburg |
Marius Wolf | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alexis Claude Maurice |
| 53' |
Augsburg |
Frank Onyeka | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alexis Claude Maurice |
| 54' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.34 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jeffrey Gouweleeuw |
| 58' |
Augsburg |
Kristijan Jakic | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 60' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Marius Wolf |
| 66' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Lukas Ullrich | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Julian Weigl |
| 67' |
Augsburg |
Steve Mounie | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Keven Schlotterbeck |
| 69' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Dimitris Giannoulis |
| 73' |
Augsburg |
Jeffrey Gouweleeuw | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 76' |
Augsburg |
Steve Mounie | 0.59 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dimitris Giannoulis |
| 81' |
Augsburg |
Marius Wolf | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 85' |
Augsburg |
Mert Kömür | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Keven Schlotterbeck |
| 87' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Florian Neuhaus | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Luca Netz |
| 92' |
Augsburg |
Arne Maier | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Steve Mounie |
Players
Borussia M.Gladbach
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robin Hack AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.29 | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| Ko Itakura DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Nico Elvedi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Joe Scally DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Lukas Ullrich DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Tim Kleindienst FW | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| Julian Weigl DMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.15 |
| Philipp Sander DMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Nathan N'Goumou Minpol AMR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Tobias Sippel Sub | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kevin Stöger AMC | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jonas Omlin GK | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Florian Neuhaus Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Alassane Pléa Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luca Netz Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Marvin Friedrich Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Augsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis Claude Maurice AMC | 90 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.53 | 0.13 | 1.36 |
| Marius Wolf DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.14 | 0.73 |
| Jeffrey Gouweleeuw DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.34 | 0.63 |
| Chrislain Matsima DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Dimitris Giannoulis DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.69 | 1.21 |
| Finn Dahmen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Kristijan Jakic MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Phillip Tietz FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Frank Onyeka MC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 0.62 |
| Fredrik Jensen AMC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| Cédric Zesiger DC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.48 |
| Steve Mounie Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.71 | 0.02 | 0.75 |
| Arne Maier Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Keven Schlotterbeck Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.24 |
| Samuel Essende Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mert Kömür Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.04 |