Borussia M.Gladbach v Augsburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 11 January 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 17
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
9 – 7
xG per shot
0.33 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
1.45 – 0.50
Goals − xG
+0.06 – -1.58
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Borussia M.Gladbach win
44.0%
Draw
30.4%
Augsburg win
25.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Borussia M.Gladbach have scored 17 from 16.5 expected and conceded 25 from 23.1 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWLLLLLLW last 10
scored 17
from 16.5 xG
conceded 25
from 23.1 xG
Augsburg are conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLWWDLDLD last 10
scored 23
from 22.8 xG
conceded 19
from 22.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.38–1.00 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.52–1.34 | 1-1 12% | 55% | 58% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Borussia M.Gladbach 3.94 xGAugsburg 1.58 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Borussia M.Gladbach attacking right
Augsburg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Augsburg |
Fabian Rieder | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Keven Schlotterbeck |
| 7' |
 Borussia M.Gladbach |
Joe Scally | 0.57 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Luca Netz |
| 7' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Joe Scally | 0.64 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 9' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Florian Neuhaus | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Franck Honorat |
| 15' |
Augsburg |
Anton Kade | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 17' |
Augsburg |
Mert Kömür | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Anton Kade |
| 19' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Kevin Diks | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 23' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Anton Kade |
| 25' |
Augsburg |
Anton Kade | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alexis Claude Maurice |
| 28' |
Augsburg |
Anton Kade | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alexis Claude Maurice |
| 29' |
Augsburg |
Cédric Zesiger | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Noahkai Banks |
| 35' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.69 | From Corner | — | Goal | Luca Netz |
| 46' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Keven Schlotterbeck |
| 47' |
Augsburg |
Anton Kade | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Augsburg |
Robin Fellhauer | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 49' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Yannick Engelhardt | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Philipp Sander |
| 52' |
Augsburg |
Han-Noah Massengo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Noahkai Banks |
| 52' |
Augsburg |
Robin Fellhauer | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 56' |
Augsburg |
Cédric Zesiger | 0.36 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mert Kömür |
| 60' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.46 | Open Play | — | Goal | Franck Honorat |
| 64' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Florian Neuhaus | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yannick Engelhardt |
| 64' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Yannick Engelhardt | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Haris Tabakovic |
| 69' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 70' |
Augsburg |
Samuel Essende | 0.53 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 72' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Rocco Reitz | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Joe Scally |
| 79' |
Augsburg |
Marius Wolf | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 81' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Joe Scally | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Shuto Machino |
| 88' |
Augsburg |
Samuel Essende | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Cédric Zesiger |
| 93' |
Augsburg |
Ismaël Gharbi | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Borussia M.Gladbach
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Diks DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 1.04 |
| Yannick Engelhardt MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 1.33 |
| Rocco Reitz MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 1.19 |
| Nico Elvedi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.04 |
| Moritz Nicolas GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.04 |
| Luca Netz DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 1.27 | 1.04 |
| Joe Scally DMR | 88 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.30 | 0.04 | 1.80 |
| Haris Tabakovic FW | 76 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.55 | 0.09 | 0.95 |
| Florian Neuhaus AMC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.76 |
| Philipp Sander DC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1.06 |
| Franck Honorat AMC | 65 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 1.16 |
| Wael Mohya Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jens Castrop Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kota Takai Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Shuto Machino Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Giovanni Reyna Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Augsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cédric Zesiger DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.02 | 0.19 |
| Robin Fellhauer DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Han-Noah Massengo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Finn Dahmen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Keven Schlotterbeck DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.42 |
| Noahkai Banks DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| Alexis Claude Maurice AMC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.19 | 0.35 |
| Mert Kömür MC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.36 | 0.18 |
| Anton Kade FW | 65 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.13 | 0.36 |
| Mads Pedersen DML | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Fabian Rieder AMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Samuel Essende Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Ismaël Gharbi Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marius Wolf Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Kristijan Jakic Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Michael Gregoritsch Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |