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Borussia M.Gladbach v Bayern Munich — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 11 January 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425

Bundesliga xG

Shots
5 – 23
On target
0 – 10
Shots in box
4 – 14
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.20
Set-piece xG
0.05 – 1.36
Goals − xG
-0.33 – -3.59
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.01.32.63.95.10'15'30'45'60'75'90'Harry Kane 67' — goal
Borussia M.Gladbach 0.33 xGBayern Munich 4.59 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Eric Dier 7' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, From Corner)Michael Olise 9' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Michael Olise 10' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Thomas Müller 14' — Saved Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Leon Goretzka 18' — Missed Shot (0.47 xG, From Corner)Thomas Müller 22' — Saved Shot (0.58 xG, Open Play)Leroy Sané 36' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Harry Kane 43' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Alassane Pléa 48' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Tim Kleindienst 48' — Missed Shot (0.19 xG, Open Play)Leroy Sané 51' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Michael Olise 53' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Alassane Pléa 55' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Leon Goretzka 60' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Michael Olise 63' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Harry Kane 67' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Kingsley Coman 69' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Leroy Sané 70' — Missed Shot (0.36 xG, Open Play)Alphonso Davies 76' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Serge Gnabry 78' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Nico Elvedi 81' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Leon Goretzka 83' — Saved Shot (0.35 xG, Open Play)Kevin Stöger 85' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Alphonso Davies 87' — Saved Shot (0.37 xG, Open Play)Kingsley Coman 87' — Saved Shot (0.30 xG, Open Play)Joshua Kimmich 91' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Direct Freekick)Serge Gnabry 93' — Saved Shot (0.43 xG, Open Play)Kingsley Coman 94' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)
Borussia M.Gladbach attacking right Bayern Munich attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
7' Bayern Munich Eric Dier 0.07 From Corner Missed Shot Michael Olise
9' Bayern Munich Michael Olise 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Konrad Laimer
10' Bayern Munich Michael Olise 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Harry Kane
14' Bayern Munich Thomas Müller 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Konrad Laimer
18' Bayern Munich Leon Goretzka 0.47 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot
22' Bayern Munich Thomas Müller 0.58 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Joshua Kimmich
36' Bayern Munich Leroy Sané 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Thomas Müller
43' Bayern Munich Harry Kane 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
48' Borussia M.Gladbach Alassane Pléa 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
48' Borussia M.Gladbach Tim Kleindienst 0.19 Open Play Missed Shot Rocco Reitz
51' Bayern Munich Leroy Sané 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Michael Olise
53' Bayern Munich Michael Olise 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
55' Borussia M.Gladbach Alassane Pléa 0.04 Open Play Blocked Shot Joe Scally
60' Bayern Munich Leon Goretzka 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
63' Bayern Munich Michael Olise 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Joshua Kimmich
67' Bayern Munich Harry Kane 0.76 Right Foot Goal
69' Bayern Munich Kingsley Coman 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Michael Olise
70' Bayern Munich Leroy Sané 0.36 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Kingsley Coman
76' Bayern Munich Alphonso Davies 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Serge Gnabry
78' Bayern Munich Serge Gnabry 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Kingsley Coman
81' Borussia M.Gladbach Nico Elvedi 0.05 From Corner Missed Shot Kevin Stöger
83' Bayern Munich Leon Goretzka 0.35 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Joshua Kimmich
85' Borussia M.Gladbach Kevin Stöger 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Stefan Lainer
87' Bayern Munich Alphonso Davies 0.37 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Serge Gnabry
87' Bayern Munich Kingsley Coman 0.30 Open Play Saved Shot
91' Bayern Munich Joshua Kimmich 0.07 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot
93' Bayern Munich Serge Gnabry 0.43 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Michael Olise
94' Bayern Munich Kingsley Coman 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Harry Kane

Players

Borussia M.Gladbach

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Tim Kleindienst FW 90 0 0 1 0 0.19 0.00 0.23
Nico Elvedi DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.21
Moritz Nicolas GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Julian Weigl DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.25
Rocco Reitz AMR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.19 0.19
Ko Itakura DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.21
Lukas Ullrich DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Joe Scally DR 82 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.04
Philipp Sander DMC 82 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Alassane Pléa AMC 62 0 0 2 0 0.07 0.00 0.26
Robin Hack AML 62 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Kevin Stöger Sub 28 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.05 0.02
Luca Netz Sub 28 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Stefan Lainer Sub 8 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.02
Tomás Cvancara Sub 8 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shio Fukuda Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Bayern Munich

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Leon Goretzka DMC 90 0 0 3 0 0.83 0.00 1.14
Harry Kane FW 90 1 0 2 2 0.80 0.21 0.25
Alphonso Davies DL 90 0 0 2 0 0.42 0.00 1.04
Michael Olise AMR 90 0 0 4 4 0.24 0.59 1.32
Eric Dier DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 1.84
Joshua Kimmich DMC 90 0 0 1 3 0.07 1.01 1.37
Manuel Neuer GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.41
Konrad Laimer DR 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.15 1.26
Kim Min-Jae DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 1.30
Leroy Sané AML 73 0 0 3 0 0.50 0.00 0.76
Thomas Müller AMC 60 0 0 2 1 0.70 0.09 0.93
Kingsley Coman Sub 30 0 0 3 2 0.45 0.43 0.87
Serge Gnabry Sub 17 0 0 2 2 0.50 0.42 1.28
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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