Borussia M.Gladbach v FC Cologne — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 8 November 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 19
On target
4 – 5
Shots in box
8 – 12
xG per shot
0.27 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
1.70 – 1.66
Goals − xG
+0.53 – -1.17
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Borussia M.Gladbach win
29.5%
Draw
24.0%
FC Cologne win
46.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Borussia M.Gladbach are conceding fewer than expected — 3.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLDDWLWLL last 10
scored 15
from 14.1 xG
conceded 17
from 20.6 xG
FC Cologne are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DDWDLDLLWL last 10
scored 18
from 22.3 xG
conceded 25
from 19.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.39–1.79 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.75–1.36 | 1-1 11% | 60% | 61% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Borussia M.Gladbach 2.47 xGFC Cologne 2.17 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Borussia M.Gladbach attacking right
FC Cologne attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Borussia M.Gladbach |
Franck Honorat | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Joe Scally |
| 9' |
 FC Cologne |
Marius Bülter | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson |
| 17' |
FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jakub Kaminski |
| 21' |
FC Cologne |
Joël Schmied | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 23' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Lukas Ullrich | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Haris Tabakovic |
| 46' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.76 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 46' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Philipp Sander | 0.12 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Haris Tabakovic |
| 46' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Rocco Reitz | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Yannick Engelhardt |
| 47' |
FC Cologne |
Marius Bülter | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kristoffer Lund |
| 47' |
FC Cologne |
Ragnar Ache | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 50' |
FC Cologne |
Marius Bülter | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson |
| 54' |
FC Cologne |
Cenk Özkacar | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson |
| 60' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Kevin Diks | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 63' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.55 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Franck Honorat |
| 64' |
FC Cologne |
Jakub Kaminski | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Eric Martel |
| 67' |
FC Cologne |
Gian-Luca Waldschmidt | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson |
| 67' |
FC Cologne |
Ragnar Ache | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson |
| 76' |
FC Cologne |
Sebastian Sebulonsen | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 80' |
FC Cologne |
Denis Huseinbasic | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Linton Maina |
| 83' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Shuto Machino | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lukas Ullrich |
| 85' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Rocco Reitz | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Haris Tabakovic |
| 91' |
FC Cologne |
Gian-Luca Waldschmidt | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 97' |
FC Cologne |
Gian-Luca Waldschmidt | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Eric Martel |
| 97' |
FC Cologne |
Marius Bülter | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Sebastian Sebulonsen |
| 100' |
FC Cologne |
Gian-Luca Waldschmidt | 0.11 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 100' |
FC Cologne |
Joël Schmied | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 100' |
FC Cologne |
Sebastian Sebulonsen | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 101' |
FC Cologne |
Ragnar Ache | 0.42 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Marius Bülter |
Players
Borussia M.Gladbach
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haris Tabakovic FW | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1.31 | 0.25 | 0.68 |
| Kevin Diks DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Rocco Reitz MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Lukas Ullrich DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.19 |
| Nico Elvedi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Moritz Nicolas GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yannick Engelhardt MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| Joe Scally DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| Franck Honorat FW | 79 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.55 | 0.59 |
| Florian Neuhaus MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Philipp Sander DC | 66 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Marvin Friedrich Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giovanni Reyna Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Shuto Machino Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Oscar Fraulo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
FC Cologne
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marius Bülter FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| Joël Schmied DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Jakub Kaminski DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| Denis Huseinbasic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Marvin Schwäbe GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Eric Martel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.22 |
| Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| Cenk Özkacar DC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Kristoffer Lund DML | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| Said El Mala FW | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Florian Kainz MC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Ragnar Ache Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Sebastian Sebulonsen Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Gian-Luca Waldschmidt Sub | 20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.95 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Linton Maina Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.06 |
| Alessio Castro-Montes Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |