Borussia M.Gladbach v FC Heidenheim — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 4 April 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 15
On target
7 – 6
Shots in box
6 – 10
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.02 – 0.35
Goals − xG
+0.91 – +1.12
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Borussia M.Gladbach win
54.2%
Draw
26.5%
FC Heidenheim win
19.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Borussia M.Gladbach have scored 17 from 16.5 expected and conceded 25 from 23.1 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWLLLLLLW last 10
scored 17
from 16.5 xG
conceded 25
from 23.1 xG
FC Heidenheim have scored 19 from 17.3 expected and conceded 19 from 18.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLDDWLWDWL last 10
scored 19
from 17.3 xG
conceded 19
from 18.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.66–0.90 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.08–1.17 | 2-1 10% | 63% | 60% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Borussia M.Gladbach 1.09 xGFC Heidenheim 0.88 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Borussia M.Gladbach attacking right
FC Heidenheim attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 FC Heidenheim |
Eren Sami Dinkci | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Niklas Dorsch |
| 10' |
 Borussia M.Gladbach |
Wael Mohya | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jens Castrop |
| 15' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Wael Mohya | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jens Castrop |
| 19' |
FC Heidenheim |
Hennes Behrens | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marvin Pieringer |
| 20' |
FC Heidenheim |
Jonas Föhrenbach | 0.07 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 20' |
FC Heidenheim |
Patrick Mainka | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Marvin Pieringer |
| 25' |
FC Heidenheim |
Patrick Mainka | 0.10 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Niklas Dorsch |
| 31' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Kevin Diks | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jens Castrop |
| 36' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Franck Honorat | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rocco Reitz |
| 36' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Rocco Reitz | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jens Castrop |
| 39' |
FC Heidenheim |
Budu Zivzivadze | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Patrick Mainka |
| 43' |
FC Heidenheim |
Mathias Honsak | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Eren Sami Dinkci |
| 46' |
FC Heidenheim |
Eren Sami Dinkci | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Julian Niehues |
| 46' |
FC Heidenheim |
Patrick Mainka | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mathias Honsak |
| 54' |
FC Heidenheim |
Julian Niehues | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mathias Honsak |
| 61' |
FC Heidenheim |
Eren Sami Dinkci | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 62' |
FC Heidenheim |
Marvin Pieringer | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Julian Niehues |
| 63' |
FC Heidenheim |
Marnon Busch | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 65' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Rocco Reitz | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Florian Neuhaus |
| 65' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Shuto Machino | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Philipp Sander |
| 68' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Kevin Stöger | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Franck Honorat |
| 73' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Franck Honorat | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Shuto Machino |
| 73' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Jens Castrop | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kevin Stöger |
| 77' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Hugo Bolin | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Florian Neuhaus |
| 82' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 84' |
FC Heidenheim |
Marnon Busch | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Julian Niehues |
| 87' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jens Castrop |
| 89' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Jens Castrop | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nico Elvedi |
| 90' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Hugo Bolin | 0.53 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Giovanni Reyna |
| 93' |
FC Heidenheim |
Marvin Pieringer | 0.08 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Arijon Ibrahimovic |
Players
Borussia M.Gladbach
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franck Honorat AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.30 |
| Jens Castrop DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0.05 | 0.23 | 0.88 |
| Kevin Diks DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Philipp Sander DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| Nico Elvedi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| Moritz Nicolas GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Shuto Machino FW | 88 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| Rocco Reitz MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| Joe Scally DMR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Wael Mohya AMC | 66 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Yannick Engelhardt MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Kevin Stöger Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.75 |
| Florian Neuhaus Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| Hugo Bolin Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.59 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Haris Tabakovic Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Giovanni Reyna Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 0.57 |
FC Heidenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mainka DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| Eren Sami Dinkci MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.14 | 0.30 |
| Marvin Pieringer FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.21 |
| Marnon Busch DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Jonas Föhrenbach DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Julian Niehues MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| Diant Ramaj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Niklas Dorsch MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| Mathias Honsak ML | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| Budu Zivzivadze FW | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Hennes Behrens DL | 52 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Leonidas Stergiou Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arijon Ibrahimovic Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.00 |
| Benedikt Gimber Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mikkel Kaufmann Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |