Borussia M.Gladbach v Mainz 05 — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 19 April 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 17
On target
4 – 7
Shots in box
7 – 10
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.02 – 0.94
Goals − xG
-0.11 – -1.46
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Borussia M.Gladbach win
37.1%
Draw
26.4%
Mainz 05 win
36.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Borussia M.Gladbach are conceding fewer than expected — 3.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLDDWLWLL last 10
scored 15
from 14.1 xG
conceded 17
from 20.6 xG
Mainz 05 are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLDLWLWDW last 10
scored 18
from 23.4 xG
conceded 12
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.30–1.28 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.60–1.53 | 1-1 11% | 61% | 63% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Borussia M.Gladbach 1.11 xGMainz 05 2.46 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Borussia M.Gladbach attacking right
Mainz 05 attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Mainz 05 |
Sheraldo Becker | 0.43 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Anthony Caci |
| 5' |
Mainz 05 |
Phillip Tietz | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nikolas Veratschnig |
| 6' |
 Borussia M.Gladbach |
Joe Scally | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Hugo Bolin |
| 12' |
Mainz 05 |
Kaishu Sano | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nadiem Amiri |
| 14' |
Mainz 05 |
Sheraldo Becker | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dominik Kohr |
| 16' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Hugo Bolin | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kevin Diks |
| 22' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Kevin Diks | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kevin Stöger |
| 27' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Philipp Sander | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 30' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Kevin Stöger |
| 30' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Jens Castrop | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nico Elvedi |
| 33' |
Mainz 05 |
Sheraldo Becker | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kaishu Sano |
| 35' |
Mainz 05 |
Sheraldo Becker | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 37' |
Mainz 05 |
Dominik Kohr | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Paul Nebel |
| 41' |
Mainz 05 |
Dominik Kohr | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Nadiem Amiri |
| 41' |
Mainz 05 |
Nadiem Amiri | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 45' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Jens Castrop | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' |
Mainz 05 |
Paul Nebel | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Anthony Caci |
| 52' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Jens Castrop | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Haris Tabakovic |
| 62' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Rocco Reitz | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 66' |
Mainz 05 |
Paul Nebel | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Armindo Sieb |
| 69' |
Mainz 05 |
Phillip Tietz | 0.43 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Anthony Caci |
| 72' |
Mainz 05 |
Phillip Tietz | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dominik Kohr |
| 80' |
Mainz 05 |
Phillip Tietz | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Danny da Costa |
| 93' |
Mainz 05 |
Armindo Sieb | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 93' |
Mainz 05 |
Dominik Kohr | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | William Bøving |
| 97' |
Mainz 05 |
Nadiem Amiri | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Borussia M.Gladbach
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rocco Reitz MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Joe Scally DMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Philipp Sander DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Nico Elvedi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.48 |
| Yannick Engelhardt MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Moritz Nicolas GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Haris Tabakovic FW | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.36 | 0.50 |
| Jens Castrop DML | 73 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.81 | 0.00 | 0.83 |
| Kevin Stöger MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.29 |
| Kevin Diks DC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Hugo Bolin AMC | 67 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.30 |
| Franck Honorat Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fabio Chiarodia Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lukas Ullrich Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giovanni Reyna Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kota Takai Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Mainz 05
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Tietz FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.79 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| Nadiem Amiri MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.78 | 0.15 | 0.94 |
| Dominik Kohr DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 1.29 |
| Kaishu Sano DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.51 |
| Daniel Batz GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stefan Posch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Danny da Costa DC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.93 |
| Paul Nebel MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 0.97 |
| Anthony Caci MR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.93 | 1.37 |
| Sheraldo Becker FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Nikolas Veratschnig ML | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| Armindo Sieb Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Philipp Mwene Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Silvan Widmer Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| William Bøving Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Nelson Weiper Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |