Borussia M.Gladbach v Mainz 05 — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 September 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Borussia M.Gladbach

3–4

3.09 – 3.47 xG

Mainz 05

Shots

21 – 17

On target

7 – 8

Shots in box

15 – 15

xG per shot

0.15 – 0.21

Set-piece xG

1.93 – 1.63

Goals − xG

-0.10 – +0.51

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 19 Sep, 11:09 · 2h before kick-off

Borussia M.Gladbach win

29.3%

model 31.0%

Draw

22.6%

model 23.2%

Mainz 05 win

48.2%

model 45.8%

292348

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.5%
1-2 9.2%
0-1 7.5%
2-1 7.4%
0-2 6.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	61.1%	Under 2.5	38.9%
BTTS yes	62.4%	BTTS no	37.6%
Borussia M.Gladbach 1+	75.5%	Borussia M.Gladbach 2+	41.0%
Mainz 05 1+	82.6%	Mainz 05 2+	52.2%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.75. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

96/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Borussia M.Gladbach to win neither half

Win either half · usually 42%

53.7% fair odds 1.86

strong signal · 1079 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 85%

83.0% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 383 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Mainz 05 carry the stronger rating, 1523 Elo against 1450.
Mainz 05 have created 2.43 xG a match over their last five while Borussia M.Gladbach have allowed 2.15.
Away from home Mainz 05 average 2.94 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Mainz 05 have an estimated 48.2% win probability, against 29.3% for Borussia M.Gladbach and 22.6% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.41 for Borussia M.Gladbach and 1.75 for Mainz 05.

Why Borussia M.Gladbach

Borussia M.Gladbach have created 1.33 xG a match over their last five while Mainz 05 have allowed 1.57. At home Borussia M.Gladbach average 1.72 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.6%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Mainz 05 can win

Mainz 05 carry the stronger rating, 1523 Elo against 1450. Mainz 05 have created 2.43 xG a match over their last five while Borussia M.Gladbach have allowed 2.15. Away from home Mainz 05 average 2.94 xG a match.

Key players

Borussia M.Gladbach's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Haris Tabakovic (0.45), Tim Kleindienst (0.38), Franck Honorat (0.27). Mainz 05's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Phillip Tietz (0.62), Nadiem Amiri (0.57), Sheraldo Becker (0.53).

Availability

1 of Borussia M.Gladbach's top three contributors did not start their last match. Borussia M.Gladbach had a player sent off last time out, worth about 0.38 expected goal involvements a match. Reported unavailable for Borussia M.Gladbach: Tim Kleindienst (suspended). Mainz 05 changed goalkeeper for their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Borussia M.Gladbach: 48% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 19.3 faced, 0.41 xG a match from set pieces. Mainz 05: 51% possession, 17.2 shots a match, 9.7 faced, 0.62 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-19 13:53 · team_stats 2026-09-19 06:04 · availability 2026-09-19 15:09 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Mainz 05 are the model's most likely outcome at 48.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.5%. Confidence 96/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Borussia M.Gladbach have scored 17 from 16.5 expected and conceded 25 from 23.1 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

WLWLLLLLLW last 10 scored 17 from 16.5 xG conceded 25 from 23.1 xG

Mainz 05 are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

LWLWDWLWLW last 10 scored 22 from 26.3 xG conceded 18 from 18.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	312346	1.41–1.75	0%	0%	0%	Away ✓
dc-xg	352442	1.50–1.66	1-1 11%	61%	63%	Away ✓
dc-xg-oos	352442	1.50–1.66	1-1 11%	61%	63%	Away ✓
deep	352442	1.50–1.66	1-1 11%	61%	63%	Away ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 to win	41.7%	43.0%	33.7%	1.28×	2.33
Borussia M.Gladbach to win	34.7%	30.5%	41.7%	0.73×	3.28
Draw	23.5%	24.5%	24.8%	0.99×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 & both teams score	23.6%	21.8%	18.6%	1.18×	4.58
Borussia M.Gladbach & both teams score	20.0%	18.0%	22.0%	0.82×	5.57
Draw & both teams score	19.3%	18.0%	19.2%	0.94×	5.57
Mainz 05 & not both score	18.1%	18.0%	15.3%	1.17×	5.57
Borussia M.Gladbach & not both score	14.8%	13.3%	19.8%	0.67×	7.52
Draw & not both score	4.3%	4.9%	5.8%	0.85×	20.44

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 & over 1.5	34.7%	30.8%	27.9%	1.10×	3.25
Mainz 05 & over 2.5	28.8%	26.1%	23.7%	1.10×	3.84
Borussia M.Gladbach & over 1.5	28.4%	26.1%	35.6%	0.73×	3.84
Mainz 05 & under 3.5	25.0%	21.6%	19.7%	1.10×	4.63
Borussia M.Gladbach & over 2.5	23.6%	21.6%	29.6%	0.73×	4.63
Borussia M.Gladbach & under 3.5	21.4%	21.6%	21.5%	1.00×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.3%	18.0%	19.2%	0.94×	5.56
Mainz 05 & over 3.5	16.8%	18.0%	14.2%	1.27×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	14.8%	12.9%	15.4%	0.83×	7.77
Draw & under 3.5	14.8%	12.9%	15.4%	0.83×	7.77
Borussia M.Gladbach & over 3.5	13.3%	12.9%	20.3%	0.63×	7.77
Mainz 05 & under 2.5	12.9%	12.9%	10.1%	1.27×	7.77
Borussia M.Gladbach & under 2.5	11.1%	12.9%	12.2%	1.06×	7.77
Draw & over 2.5	8.7%	7.9%	9.5%	0.83×	12.62
Draw & over 3.5	8.7%	7.9%	9.5%	0.83×	12.62
Borussia M.Gladbach & under 1.5	6.4%	7.9%	6.2%	1.27×	12.62
Mainz 05 & under 1.5	7.1%	7.9%	5.9%	1.34×	12.62
Draw & under 1.5	4.3%	4.8%	5.8%	0.83×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 (1UP)	59.9%	58.4%	52.8%	1.11×	1.71
Borussia M.Gladbach (1UP)	54.0%	52.7%	59.7%	0.88×	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 (2UP)	41.7%	47.5%	36.6%	1.30×	2.10
Borussia M.Gladbach (2UP)	34.7%	31.0%	45.0%	0.69×	3.23

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 to win 2nd half	36.5%	36.4%	29.4%	1.24×	2.75
2nd half drawn	32.9%	34.3%	33.6%	1.02×	2.92
Borussia M.Gladbach to win 2nd half	30.6%	34.2%	37.2%	0.92×	2.92

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 under 1.5 in 2nd half	75.5%	79.1%	79.5%	0.99×	1.26
Mainz 05 over 0.5 in 2nd half	61.3%	59.8%	56.7%	1.05×	1.67
Mainz 05 under 0.5 in 2nd half	38.7%	40.2%	43.3%	0.93×	2.49
Mainz 05 over 1.5 in 2nd half	24.5%	20.9%	20.5%	1.02×	4.79

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia M.Gladbach under 1.5 in 2nd half	79.4%	76.3%	74.5%	1.02×	1.31
Borussia M.Gladbach over 0.5 in 2nd half	56.8%	58.2%	62.5%	0.93×	1.72
Borussia M.Gladbach under 0.5 in 2nd half	43.2%	41.8%	37.5%	1.11×	2.39
Borussia M.Gladbach over 1.5 in 2nd half	20.6%	23.7%	25.5%	0.93×	4.22

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 (+2.5)	93.8%	92.1%	88.0%	1.05×	1.09
Mainz 05 (+1.5)	83.6%	82.5%	75.2%	1.10×	1.21
Mainz 05 (+0.5)	65.3%	68.6%	58.3%	1.18×	1.46
Borussia M.Gladbach (+0.5)	58.3%	57.0%	66.3%	0.86×	1.75
Mainz 05 (-0.5)	41.7%	43.0%	33.7%	1.28×	2.33
Borussia M.Gladbach (-0.5)	34.7%	31.4%	41.7%	0.75×	3.19
Borussia M.Gladbach (-1.5)	16.4%	17.5%	24.8%	0.71×	5.71
Borussia M.Gladbach (-2.5)	6.2%	7.9%	12.0%	0.66×	12.70

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 to concede	77.6%	78.8%	79.1%	1.00×	1.27
Mainz 05 clean sheet	22.4%	21.2%	20.9%	1.01×	4.71

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 clean sheet in 1st half	51.9%	50.2%	48.1%	1.04×	1.99
Mainz 05 to concede in 1st half	48.1%	49.8%	51.9%	0.96×	2.01

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 to concede in 2nd half	56.8%	57.8%	62.5%	0.93×	1.73
Mainz 05 clean sheet in 2nd half	43.2%	42.2%	37.5%	1.12×	2.37

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 under 3.5 goals	91.3%	92.3%	92.7%	1.00×	1.08
Mainz 05 over 0.5 goals	81.0%	81.4%	74.6%	1.09×	1.23
Mainz 05 under 2.5 goals	76.8%	76.3%	78.9%	0.97×	1.31
Mainz 05 under 1.5 goals	50.6%	53.5%	57.1%	0.94×	1.87
Mainz 05 over 1.5 goals	49.4%	46.5%	42.9%	1.08×	2.15
Mainz 05 over 2.5 goals	23.2%	23.7%	21.1%	1.13×	4.22
Mainz 05 under 0.5 goals	19.0%	18.6%	25.4%	0.73×	5.37
Mainz 05 over 3.5 goals	8.7%	7.7%	7.3%	1.05×	12.98

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 under 1.5 in 1st half	84.0%	83.1%	85.6%	0.97×	1.20
Mainz 05 over 0.5 in 1st half	50.9%	55.2%	45.6%	1.21×	1.81
Mainz 05 under 0.5 in 1st half	49.1%	44.8%	54.4%	0.82×	2.23
Mainz 05 over 1.5 in 1st half	16.0%	16.9%	14.4%	1.17×	5.93

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 scores more in 2nd half	39.6%	36.5%	36.7%	0.99×	2.74
Mainz 05 scores equally in both	34.2%	34.0%	39.1%	0.87×	2.94
Mainz 05 scores more in 1st half	26.2%	26.3%	24.4%	1.08×	3.81

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia M.Gladbach (away no bet)	59.6%	57.4%	62.7%	0.92×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	40.4%	42.6%	37.3%	1.14×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 even goals	51.8%	52.6%	53.2%	0.99×	1.90
Mainz 05 odd goals	48.2%	47.4%	46.8%	1.01×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	78.8%	81.8%	75.5%	1.08×	1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals	21.2%	18.2%	24.5%	0.74×	5.50

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	71.9%	67.2%	72.5%	0.93×	1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals	28.1%	32.8%	27.5%	1.19×	3.05

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	63.1%	60.0%	66.9%	0.90×	1.67
Mainz 05 to score 2+ in a row	39.0%	36.5%	34.5%	1.06×	2.74
Borussia M.Gladbach to score 2+ in a row	33.4%	29.1%	42.3%	0.69×	3.44
Either team to score 3+ in a row	24.3%	19.6%	29.7%	0.66×	5.10
Mainz 05 to score 3+ in a row	14.1%	12.2%	12.8%	0.96×	8.17
Borussia M.Gladbach to score 3+ in a row	10.7%	12.2%	17.8%	0.68×	8.23

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.6%	11.5%	9.8%	1.17×	8.73
1-2	8.8%	7.4%	6.9%	1.08×	13.50
0-1	7.1%	7.4%	5.9%	1.25×	13.50
2-1	7.9%	7.4%	6.9%	1.08×	13.50
2-2	6.6%	7.4%	6.4%	1.16×	13.50
0-2	5.9%	7.4%	4.4%	1.70×	13.50
1-0	6.4%	7.4%	6.2%	1.19×	13.50
1-3	4.9%	1.7%	4.8%	0.35×	58.33
2-0	4.8%	1.7%	6.1%	0.28×	58.33
0-0	4.3%	1.7%	5.8%	0.30×	58.33
0-3	3.2%	1.7%	3.0%	0.58×	58.33
0-4	1.3%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	58.35
1-4	2.0%	1.7%	1.7%	1.00×	58.34
2-3	3.6%	1.7%	2.7%	0.65×	58.33
2-4	1.5%	1.7%	1.1%	1.57×	58.34
3-0	2.4%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.34
3-1	3.9%	1.7%	6.1%	0.28×	58.33
3-2	3.3%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.33
3-3	1.8%	1.7%	3.0%	0.58×	58.34
3-4	0.8%	1.7%	1.4%	1.22×	58.35
4-0	0.9%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.35
4-1	1.5%	1.7%	2.2%	0.78×	58.34
4-2	1.2%	1.7%	1.1%	1.57×	58.35
4-3	0.7%	1.7%	0.9%	1.83×	58.35
4-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.5%	3.66×	58.35
Any other score	4.5%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.33

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 (2nd half DNB)	54.4%	54.4%	44.1%	1.23×	1.84
Borussia M.Gladbach (2nd half DNB)	45.6%	45.6%	55.9%	0.82×	2.19

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 leading at HT (DNB)	52.7%	54.3%	44.5%	1.22×	1.84
Borussia M.Gladbach leading at HT (DNB)	47.3%	45.7%	55.5%	0.82×	2.19

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia M.Gladbach or Mainz 05 (12)	76.5%	75.5%	75.2%	1.00×	1.32
Mainz 05 or draw (X2)	65.3%	69.5%	58.3%	1.19×	1.44
Borussia M.Gladbach or draw (1X)	58.3%	57.0%	66.3%	0.86×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 or draw at HT	71.1%	74.6%	63.1%	1.18×	1.34
Borussia M.Gladbach or draw at HT	67.7%	66.3%	70.5%	0.94×	1.51
Borussia M.Gladbach or Mainz 05 at HT	61.2%	62.0%	66.3%	0.94×	1.61

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 or draw (1UP)	65.3%	75.8%	65.0%	1.17×	1.32
Borussia M.Gladbach or draw (1UP)	58.3%	62.7%	73.4%	0.85×	1.60

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 or draw in 2nd half	69.4%	65.8%	62.8%	1.05×	1.52
Borussia M.Gladbach or Mainz 05 in 2nd half	67.1%	65.7%	66.4%	0.99×	1.52
Borussia M.Gladbach or draw in 2nd half	63.5%	63.6%	70.6%	0.90×	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	59.0%	58.2%	53.6%	1.09×	1.72
Neither half drawn	41.0%	41.8%	46.4%	0.90×	2.39

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 (DNB)	54.6%	51.0%	44.7%	1.14×	1.96
Borussia M.Gladbach (DNB)	45.4%	49.0%	55.3%	0.89×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 to score first	50.4%	53.6%	43.6%	1.23×	1.87
Borussia M.Gladbach to score first	45.4%	45.5%	50.8%	0.90×	2.20
No goal scored	4.3%	4.4%	5.8%	0.76×	22.84

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	62.9%	56.5%	59.4%	0.95×	1.77
Not both teams to score	37.1%	43.5%	40.6%	1.07×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	52.3%	47.2%	49.8%	0.95×	2.12
Not both score & under 2.5	28.3%	33.4%	27.8%	1.20×	2.99
Both score & under 2.5	10.6%	12.3%	9.8%	1.26×	8.10
Not both score & over 2.5	8.8%	8.3%	12.9%	0.64×	12.03

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	78.2%	79.6%	79.9%	1.00×	1.26
Both teams to score 2+	21.8%	20.4%	20.1%	1.01×	4.91

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	65.2%	67.6%	65.3%	1.03×	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	34.8%	32.5%	34.7%	0.94×	3.08

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	49.2%	53.9%	51.6%	1.04×	1.86
Both score 2nd half only	26.3%	26.6%	28.1%	0.95×	3.76
Both score 1st half only	16.0%	15.5%	13.9%	1.11×	6.45
Both score in both halves	8.5%	7.0%	6.7%	1.04×	14.35

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	75.5%	81.0%	79.5%	1.02×	1.24
Both teams to score by HT	24.5%	19.0%	20.5%	0.93×	5.26

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	62.1%	58.9%	67.3%	0.87×	1.70
A half without a goal	37.9%	41.1%	32.7%	1.26×	2.43

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	43.5%	42.0%	38.8%	1.08×	2.38
4-6 goals	34.6%	30.8%	40.1%	0.77×	3.25
0-1 goals	17.7%	20.3%	17.6%	1.15×	4.93
7+ goals	4.2%	1.8%	3.7%	0.49×	54.76

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 to score exactly 1	31.6%	33.8%	31.8%	1.06×	2.96
Mainz 05 to score exactly 2	26.2%	27.4%	22.0%	1.25×	3.65
Mainz 05 to score 3+	23.2%	22.3%	21.1%	1.06×	4.48
Mainz 05 to score exactly 0	19.0%	19.6%	25.4%	0.77×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia M.Gladbach to score exactly 1	33.5%	32.6%	29.3%	1.11×	3.07
Borussia M.Gladbach to score exactly 2	25.1%	26.5%	22.6%	1.17×	3.77
Borussia M.Gladbach to score exactly 0	22.4%	23.3%	20.9%	1.11×	4.29
Borussia M.Gladbach to score 3+	19.0%	18.8%	27.5%	0.69×	5.31

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	38.8%	38.0%	33.8%	1.12×	2.64
Mainz 05 leading at HT	32.3%	33.7%	29.5%	1.14×	2.97
Borussia M.Gladbach leading at HT	28.9%	25.4%	36.9%	0.69×	3.94

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 -1: 1	58.3%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Mainz 05 -1: 2	21.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Mainz 05 -1: X	20.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 (0:1)	65.3%	65.1%	58.3%	1.12×	1.54
Draw (0:1)	18.3%	17.8%	17.0%	1.05×	5.61
Borussia M.Gladbach (0:1)	16.4%	17.8%	24.8%	0.72×	5.61

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 (0:2)	83.6%	82.9%	75.2%	1.10×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	10.2%	11.0%	12.9%	0.85×	9.13
Borussia M.Gladbach (0:2)	6.2%	7.7%	12.0%	0.64×	13.05

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 (0:3)	93.8%	92.7%	88.0%	1.05×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.3%	2.4%	5.1%	0.46×	42.16
Borussia M.Gladbach (0:3)	1.9%	2.4%	7.0%	0.34×	42.27

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 (0:4)	98.1%	98.1%	93.0%	1.06×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.4%	1.2%	5.1%	0.23×	82.76
Borussia M.Gladbach (0:4)	0.5%	1.2%	2.0%	0.60×	82.86

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia M.Gladbach (1:0)	58.3%	58.3%	66.3%	0.88×	1.72
Mainz 05 (1:0)	21.4%	21.8%	17.5%	1.25×	4.60
Draw (1:0)	20.3%	21.8%	16.4%	1.33×	4.60

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia M.Gladbach (2:0)	78.6%	80.4%	82.5%	0.97×	1.24
Draw (2:0)	12.5%	10.3%	10.1%	1.02×	9.67
Mainz 05 (2:0)	8.9%	6.4%	7.5%	0.86×	15.60

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.5%	48.2%	47.2%	1.02×	2.07
1st half highest scoring	29.5%	26.4%	25.9%	1.02×	3.79
Halves equal	23.1%	24.3%	27.0%	0.90×	4.11

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia M.Gladbach to concede	81.0%	80.7%	74.6%	1.08×	1.24
Borussia M.Gladbach clean sheet	19.0%	19.3%	25.4%	0.76×	5.19

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia M.Gladbach to concede in 1st half	50.9%	55.2%	45.6%	1.21×	1.81
Borussia M.Gladbach clean sheet in 1st half	49.1%	44.8%	54.4%	0.82×	2.23

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia M.Gladbach to concede in 2nd half	61.3%	59.5%	56.7%	1.05×	1.68
Borussia M.Gladbach clean sheet in 2nd half	38.7%	40.5%	43.3%	0.94×	2.47

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia M.Gladbach under 3.5 goals	93.5%	92.2%	88.5%	1.04×	1.08
Borussia M.Gladbach under 2.5 goals	81.0%	82.2%	72.5%	1.13×	1.22
Borussia M.Gladbach over 0.5 goals	77.6%	77.7%	79.1%	0.98×	1.29
Borussia M.Gladbach under 1.5 goals	55.9%	58.7%	50.1%	1.17×	1.71
Borussia M.Gladbach over 1.5 goals	44.1%	41.3%	49.9%	0.83×	2.42
Borussia M.Gladbach under 0.5 goals	22.4%	22.3%	20.9%	1.07×	4.49
Borussia M.Gladbach over 2.5 goals	19.0%	17.8%	27.5%	0.65×	5.61
Borussia M.Gladbach over 3.5 goals	6.5%	7.8%	11.5%	0.67×	12.87

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia M.Gladbach under 1.5 in 1st half	85.9%	89.9%	80.8%	1.11×	1.11
Borussia M.Gladbach under 0.5 in 1st half	51.9%	50.1%	48.1%	1.04×	2.00
Borussia M.Gladbach over 0.5 in 1st half	48.1%	49.9%	51.9%	0.96×	2.01
Borussia M.Gladbach over 1.5 in 1st half	14.1%	10.1%	19.2%	0.53×	9.90

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia M.Gladbach scores more in 2nd half	37.1%	37.5%	38.3%	0.98×	2.67
Borussia M.Gladbach scores equally in both	36.5%	37.5%	36.4%	1.03×	2.67
Borussia M.Gladbach scores more in 1st half	26.3%	27.8%	25.5%	1.09×	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 (home no bet)	64.0%	60.1%	57.6%	1.04×	1.66
Draw (home no bet)	36.0%	39.9%	42.4%	0.94×	2.51

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia M.Gladbach even goals	52.5%	50.7%	52.1%	0.97×	1.97
Borussia M.Gladbach odd goals	47.5%	49.3%	47.9%	1.03×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	25.5%	28.8%	23.0%	1.26×	3.47
HT 0-1	18.1%	18.8%	16.6%	1.14×	5.32
HT 1-0	16.7%	18.8%	19.5%	0.96×	5.32
HT 1-1	11.9%	10.8%	9.7%	1.11×	9.28
HT 0-2	6.4%	7.1%	7.3%	0.97×	14.09
Any other HT score	6.4%	7.1%	6.6%	1.08×	14.10
HT 2-0	5.5%	7.1%	9.7%	0.73×	14.11
HT 1-2	4.2%	2.3%	3.4%	0.68×	42.62
HT 2-1	3.9%	2.3%	4.2%	0.56×	42.64
HT 2-2	1.4%	2.3%	1.3%	1.87×	42.82

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 at HT / Mainz 05 at FT	24.5%	21.9%	20.5%	1.07×	4.57
Borussia M.Gladbach at HT / Borussia M.Gladbach at FT	20.4%	21.7%	28.3%	0.77×	4.60
Draw at HT / Mainz 05 at FT	14.2%	12.7%	9.8%	1.29×	7.89
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.8%	12.7%	13.8%	0.92×	7.90
Draw at HT / Borussia M.Gladbach at FT	11.9%	12.7%	10.5%	1.21×	7.90
Borussia M.Gladbach at HT / Draw at FT	5.5%	6.1%	5.2%	1.18×	16.44
Mainz 05 at HT / Draw at FT	5.2%	6.1%	6.1%	1.00×	16.44
Borussia M.Gladbach at HT / Mainz 05 at FT	3.1%	3.4%	3.8%	0.92×	29.09
Mainz 05 at HT / Borussia M.Gladbach at FT	2.5%	3.4%	3.3%	1.05×	29.11

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 to score last	50.4%	51.8%	44.5%	1.16×	1.93
Borussia M.Gladbach to score last	45.4%	46.4%	49.8%	0.93×	2.15
No goal scored	4.3%	4.4%	5.8%	0.76×	22.84

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.7%	95.6%	94.2%	1.01×	1.05
Mainz 05 to lead by 1 at any time	59.9%	55.1%	52.8%	1.04×	1.82
Borussia M.Gladbach to lead by 1 at any time	54.0%	50.7%	59.7%	0.85×	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	52.3%	50.7%	55.9%	0.91×	1.97
Mainz 05 to lead by 2 at any time	29.1%	25.5%	23.6%	1.08×	3.93
Borussia M.Gladbach to lead by 2 at any time	23.6%	19.6%	33.1%	0.59×	5.09
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	20.0%	19.6%	25.9%	0.75×	5.11
Mainz 05 to lead by 3 at any time	11.6%	10.5%	10.3%	1.01×	9.56
Borussia M.Gladbach to lead by 3 at any time	8.5%	6.8%	15.8%	0.43×	14.79

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.7%	87.4%	83.5%	1.05×	1.14
2-6 goals	78.1%	78.7%	78.8%	1.00×	1.27
1-4 goals	74.6%	72.4%	72.4%	1.00×	1.38
2-5 goals	72.3%	72.4%	71.6%	1.01×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.1%	63.4%	60.5%	1.05×	1.58
1-3 goals	57.0%	59.1%	50.7%	1.16×	1.69
3-6 goals	56.9%	59.1%	59.0%	1.00×	1.69
3-5 goals	51.1%	53.1%	51.8%	1.03×	1.88
2-3 goals	43.5%	43.5%	38.8%	1.12×	2.30
3-4 goals	39.9%	39.2%	40.7%	0.96×	2.55
4-6 goals	34.6%	35.2%	40.1%	0.88×	2.84
1-2 goals	34.6%	35.2%	31.8%	1.11×	2.84
4-5 goals	28.7%	30.3%	32.9%	0.92×	3.30
5-6 goals	17.0%	18.8%	18.4%	1.02×	5.32
7+ goals	4.2%	2.6%	3.7%	0.68×	39.17

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 never behind	41.7%	48.5%	40.3%	1.20×	2.06
Borussia M.Gladbach never behind	35.8%	44.1%	47.2%	0.93×	2.27

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	44.9%	1.13×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	55.1%	0.89×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.2%	51.9%	52.5%	0.99×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	46.8%	48.1%	47.5%	1.01×	2.08

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.4%	52.0%	53.0%	0.98×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.6%	48.0%	47.0%	1.02×	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.7%	95.4%	94.2%	1.01×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	90.0%	87.6%	89.1%	0.98×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	82.3%	82.3%	82.4%	1.00×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	78.8%	77.4%	78.0%	0.99×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	61.2%	61.7%	56.3%	1.10×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	61.1%	61.7%	62.6%	0.99×	1.62
Under 2.5 goals	38.9%	38.3%	37.4%	1.02×	2.61
Over 3.5 goals	38.8%	38.3%	43.7%	0.88×	2.61
Over 4.5 goals	21.2%	22.6%	22.0%	1.03×	4.42
Under 1.5 goals	17.7%	17.7%	17.6%	1.00×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	10.0%	12.4%	10.9%	1.13×	8.08
Under 0.5 goals	4.3%	4.6%	5.8%	0.79×	21.86

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	95.5%	97.2%	96.0%	1.01×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	88.7%	86.7%	87.7%	0.99×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	77.5%	75.9%	78.0%	0.97×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	74.3%	72.4%	71.9%	1.01×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	50.1%	51.8%	46.2%	1.12×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	49.9%	48.2%	53.8%	0.89×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	25.7%	27.6%	28.1%	0.98×	3.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	22.5%	24.1%	22.0%	1.10×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	11.3%	13.3%	12.3%	1.08×	7.55
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	4.5%	2.8%	4.0%	0.69×	35.74

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	84.1%	86.1%	85.0%	1.01×	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	74.5%	71.3%	77.0%	0.93×	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	60.3%	63.6%	58.8%	1.08×	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	39.7%	36.4%	41.3%	0.88×	2.75
Under 0.5 in 1st half	25.5%	28.7%	23.0%	1.25×	3.48
Over 2.5 in 1st half	15.9%	13.9%	15.0%	0.92×	7.21

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	83.3%	82.8%	84.5%	0.98×	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	73.4%	77.8%	73.3%	1.06×	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	53.4%	53.1%	55.8%	0.95×	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	46.6%	46.9%	44.2%	1.06×	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	26.6%	22.2%	26.7%	0.83×	4.50
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	16.7%	17.2%	15.5%	1.11×	5.83

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia M.Gladbach not to score in both halves	72.6%	74.2%	64.7%	1.15×	1.35
Mainz 05 not to score in both halves	68.8%	69.9%	72.2%	0.97×	1.43
Mainz 05 to score in both halves	31.2%	30.1%	27.8%	1.08×	3.33
Borussia M.Gladbach to score in both halves	27.4%	25.8%	35.3%	0.73×	3.88

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	62.9%	60.1%	59.4%	1.01×	1.66
Only Mainz 05 scores	18.1%	16.0%	15.3%	1.05×	6.24
Only Borussia M.Gladbach scores	14.8%	11.0%	19.8%	0.56×	9.06
Neither team scores	4.3%	4.6%	5.8%	0.81×	21.51

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.6%	19.0%	1.19×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	21.2%	22.6%	20.0%	1.13×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	17.6%	17.5%	21.8%	0.80×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	13.4%	12.1%	12.0%	1.01×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	11.1%	12.1%	11.2%	1.08×	8.25
6 or more goals	10.0%	12.1%	10.9%	1.11×	8.26
Exactly 0 goals	4.3%	4.5%	5.8%	0.78×	22.35

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	34.8%	36.1%	35.9%	1.01×	2.77
No goals in 1st half	25.5%	28.6%	23.0%	1.24×	3.50
2 goals in 1st half	23.8%	21.7%	26.4%	0.82×	4.62
3+ goals in 1st half	15.9%	15.2%	15.0%	1.02×	6.56

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	53.4%	51.5%	55.8%	0.92×	1.94
1 goal in 2nd half	29.9%	30.0%	28.9%	1.04×	3.34
No goals in 2nd half	16.7%	17.1%	15.5%	1.11×	5.83

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia M.Gladbach not to win both halves	91.2%	94.0%	83.9%	1.12×	1.06
Mainz 05 not to win both halves	88.2%	88.0%	90.6%	0.97×	1.14
Mainz 05 to win both halves	11.8%	12.0%	9.4%	1.28×	8.37
Borussia M.Gladbach to win both halves	8.8%	6.0%	16.1%	0.37×	16.57

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 to win either half	57.0%	59.5%	49.5%	1.20×	1.68
Borussia M.Gladbach to win either half	50.6%	54.5%	58.0%	0.94×	1.83
Borussia M.Gladbach to win neither half	49.4%	45.5%	42.0%	1.08×	2.20
Mainz 05 to win neither half	43.0%	40.5%	50.5%	0.80×	2.47

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia M.Gladbach not to win to nil	85.2%	88.1%	80.2%	1.10×	1.14
Mainz 05 not to win to nil	81.9%	83.1%	84.7%	0.98×	1.20
Mainz 05 to win to nil	18.1%	16.9%	15.3%	1.11×	5.92
Borussia M.Gladbach to win to nil	14.8%	11.9%	19.8%	0.60×	8.41

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	23.5%	24.1%	24.8%	0.97×	4.15
Mainz 05 by 1	20.3%	24.1%	16.4%	1.47×	4.15
Borussia M.Gladbach by 1	18.3%	17.0%	17.0%	1.00×	5.88
Mainz 05 by 2	12.5%	11.8%	10.1%	1.16×	8.49
Borussia M.Gladbach by 2	10.2%	11.8%	12.9%	0.91×	8.49
Mainz 05 by 3+	8.9%	7.2%	7.5%	0.96×	13.87
Borussia M.Gladbach by 3+	6.2%	7.2%	12.0%	0.60×	13.88

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Borussia M.Gladbach 3.10 xGMainz 05 3.49 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Borussia M.Gladbach attacking right Mainz 05 attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
6'	Mainz 05	Anthony Caci	0.48	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Jae-Sung Lee
9'	Mainz 05	Kaishu Sano	0.01	Set Piece	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
10'	Borussia M.Gladbach	Florian Neuhaus	0.37	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Lukas Ullrich
10'	Borussia M.Gladbach	Lukas Ullrich	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Florian Neuhaus
14'	Borussia M.Gladbach	Jan Leszczynski	0.08	From Corner	—	Saved Shot	Franck Honorat
17'	Mainz 05	Phillip Tietz	0.90	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	Sheraldo Becker
17'	Mainz 05	Sheraldo Becker	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
22'	Mainz 05	Sheraldo Becker	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Fabio Gruber
23'	Mainz 05	Kacper Potulski	0.43	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Anthony Caci
24'	Borussia M.Gladbach	Hugo Bolin	0.05	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Florian Neuhaus
27'	Mainz 05	Anthony Caci	0.07	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	—
33'	Borussia M.Gladbach	Hugo Bolin	0.05	Set Piece	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Jan Leszczynski
33'	Borussia M.Gladbach	Philipp Sander	0.05	Set Piece	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Florian Neuhaus
34'	Mainz 05	Philipp Mwene	0.03	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Sheraldo Becker
36'	Borussia M.Gladbach	Isac Lidberg	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Florian Neuhaus
37'	Borussia M.Gladbach	Ko Itakura	0.07	Set Piece	—	Saved Shot	Franck Honorat
45'	Mainz 05	Sheraldo Becker	0.07	Open Play	—	Goal	Anthony Caci
49'	Mainz 05	Sheraldo Becker	0.11	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Kaishu Sano
50'	Borussia M.Gladbach	Isac Lidberg	0.05	Open Play	—	Saved Shot	Jan Leszczynski
51'	Borussia M.Gladbach	Joe Scally	0.01	From Corner	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
56'	Borussia M.Gladbach	Kevin Diks	0.76		Right Foot	Shot On Post	—
57'	Borussia M.Gladbach	Florian Neuhaus	0.03	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Hugo Bolin
58'	Borussia M.Gladbach	Isac Lidberg	0.37	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Lukas Ullrich
58'	Borussia M.Gladbach	Lukas Ullrich	0.14	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Joe Scally
67'	Mainz 05	Phillip Tietz	0.08	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Danny da Costa
68'	Mainz 05	Phillip Tietz	0.02	Open Play	—	Saved Shot	Philipp Mwene
73'	Mainz 05	Sheraldo Becker	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Danny da Costa
77'	Mainz 05	Eric Martel	0.51	From Corner	—	Goal	Kaishu Sano
80'	Mainz 05	Kacper Potulski	0.06	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Nadiem Amiri
83'	Borussia M.Gladbach	Shuto Machino	0.11	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Kevin Stöger
87'	Mainz 05	Stefan Posch	0.02	From Corner	—	Saved Shot	Nadiem Amiri
88'	Mainz 05	Danny da Costa	0.60	From Corner	Left Foot	Goal	—
90'	Borussia M.Gladbach	Shuto Machino	0.01	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Isac Lidberg
92'	Borussia M.Gladbach	Shuto Machino	0.02	Set Piece	—	Blocked Shot	Kevin Diks
94'	Borussia M.Gladbach	Shuto Machino	0.76		Right Foot	Goal	—
96'	Borussia M.Gladbach	Jan Leszczynski	0.01	Set Piece	—	Missed Shot	Kevin Stöger
97'	Borussia M.Gladbach	Philipp Sander	0.01	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Wael Mohya
97'	Borussia M.Gladbach	Wael Mohya	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Robin Hack

Players