Borussia M.Gladbach v Paderborn — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 31 October 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 11.4%
- 1-0 11.0%
- 2-1 9.7%
- 2-0 9.4%
- 0-1 6.7%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 51.6% | Under 2.5 | 48.4% |
| BTTS yes | 52.8% | BTTS no | 47.2% |
| Borussia M.Gladbach 1+ | 81.8% | Borussia M.Gladbach 2+ | 50.8% |
| Paderborn 1+ | 64.5% | Paderborn 2+ | 27.8% |
Expected goals 1.70 – 1.04. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Borussia M.Gladbach have created 1.65 xG a match over their last five while Paderborn have allowed 1.89.
- At home Borussia M.Gladbach average 2.05 xG a match.
Risk factors
- Paderborn have only 7 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Borussia M.Gladbach have an estimated 53.0% win probability, against 24.0% for the draw and 23.0% for Paderborn. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.70 for Borussia M.Gladbach and 1.04 for Paderborn.
Why Borussia M.Gladbach
Borussia M.Gladbach have created 1.65 xG a match over their last five while Paderborn have allowed 1.89. At home Borussia M.Gladbach average 2.05 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 24.0%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why Paderborn can win
Paderborn carry the stronger rating, 1500 Elo against 1433. Paderborn have created 1.13 xG a match over their last five while Borussia M.Gladbach have allowed 2.31. Away from home Paderborn average 0.79 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Borussia M.Gladbach were missing 1.11 expected goal involvements a match against 0.29.
Key players
Borussia M.Gladbach's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Haris Tabakovic (0.45), Tim Kleindienst (0.38), Franck Honorat (0.26). Paderborn's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Laurin Curda (0.28), Steffen Tigges (0.24), Marvin Pieringer (0.23).
Availability
3 of Borussia M.Gladbach's top three contributors did not start their last match. 1 of Paderborn's top three contributors did not start their last match.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Borussia M.Gladbach: 43% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 17.0 faced, 0.27 xG a match from set pieces. Paderborn: 46% possession, 14.6 shots a match, 16.2 faced, 0.24 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Borussia M.Gladbach are the model's most likely outcome at 53.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.4%. Confidence 89/100, data quality 80/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Borussia M.Gladbach have scored 17 from 16.5 expected and conceded 25 from 23.1 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
Paderborn are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.70–1.04 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.81–1.12 | 1-1 11% | 56% | 56% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.