Borussia M.Gladbach v RasenBallsport Leipzig — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 29 March 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 19
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
13 – 11
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.81 – 0.41
Goals − xG
-0.80 – -0.93
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Borussia M.Gladbach win
40.7%
Draw
27.7%
RasenBallsport Leipzig win
31.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Borussia M.Gladbach have scored 17 from 16.5 expected and conceded 25 from 23.1 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWLLLLLLW last 10
scored 17
from 16.5 xG
conceded 25
from 23.1 xG
RasenBallsport Leipzig have scored 24 from 22.6 expected and conceded 20 from 21.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWLWLWLWLW last 10
scored 24
from 22.6 xG
conceded 20
from 21.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.68–1.46 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Borussia M.Gladbach 1.80 xGRasenBallsport Leipzig 0.93 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Borussia M.Gladbach attacking right
RasenBallsport Leipzig attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Xavi Simons | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Christoph Baumgartner |
| 11' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Amadou Haidara | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 12' |
 Borussia M.Gladbach |
Tomás Cvancara | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Franck Honorat |
| 13' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Tomás Cvancara | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Robin Hack |
| 20' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Robin Hack | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alassane Pléa |
| 23' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Xavi Simons | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolas Seiwald |
| 28' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Alassane Pléa | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 31' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Loïs Openda | 0.08 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Christoph Baumgartner |
| 32' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | El Chadaille Bitshiabu |
| 37' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Loïs Openda | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bote Baku |
| 41' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Tomás Cvancara | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Loïs Openda |
| 46' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Alassane Pléa | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Franck Honorat |
| 46' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Tomás Cvancara | 0.11 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Rocco Reitz |
| 46' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Bote Baku | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | David Raum |
| 51' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Amadou Haidara | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Loïs Openda |
| 52' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Franck Honorat | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Robin Hack |
| 53' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Nico Elvedi | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Franck Honorat |
| 54' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Alassane Pléa | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Franck Honorat |
| 55' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Alassane Pléa | 0.42 | From Corner | — | Goal | — |
| 55' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Ko Itakura | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Robin Hack |
| 60' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | David Raum |
| 60' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Lukas Klostermann |
| 61' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Alassane Pléa | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Franck Honorat |
| 62' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Loïs Openda |
| 65' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Loïs Openda | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Benjamin Sesko |
| 66' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Willi Orban | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Xavi Simons |
| 70' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Loïs Openda | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 71' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Rocco Reitz | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Robin Hack |
| 72' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Nico Elvedi | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Robin Hack |
| 74' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Loïs Openda | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Christoph Baumgartner |
| 79' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Alassane Pléa | 0.48 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 84' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Willi Orban | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 93' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Xavi Simons | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Borussia M.Gladbach
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomás Cvancara FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Nico Elvedi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ko Itakura DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Rocco Reitz DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Julian Weigl DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Tiago Pereira Cardoso GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alassane Pléa AMC | 83 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1.09 | 0.08 | 0.67 |
| Robin Hack AML | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.08 | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| Joe Scally DR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Franck Honorat AMR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.06 | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| Lukas Ullrich DL | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Luca Netz Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fabio Chiarodia Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stefan Lainer Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nathan N'Goumou Minpol Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Florian Neuhaus Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
RasenBallsport Leipzig
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christoph Baumgartner FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0.23 | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| Willi Orban DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Xavi Simons MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 0.36 |
| Nicolas Seiwald MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.29 |
| David Raum DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| Maarten Vandevoordt GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Loïs Openda FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0.35 | 0.10 | 0.37 |
| Lukas Klostermann DC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.22 |
| El Chadaille Bitshiabu DC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.29 |
| Bote Baku DMR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| Amadou Haidara MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Benjamin Sesko Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Kosta Nedeljkovic Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Castello Lukeba Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tidiam Gomis Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yussuf Poulsen Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |