Borussia M.Gladbach v RasenBallsport Leipzig — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 28 November 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 20
On target
0 – 4
Shots in box
5 – 10
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.13 – 0.25
Goals − xG
-0.39 – -1.09
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Borussia M.Gladbach win
34.3%
Draw
24.5%
RasenBallsport Leipzig win
41.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Borussia M.Gladbach are conceding fewer than expected — 3.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLDDWLWLL last 10
scored 15
from 14.1 xG
conceded 17
from 20.6 xG
RasenBallsport Leipzig are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWWWWLWLWL last 10
scored 22
from 24.3 xG
conceded 15
from 15.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.51–1.68 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.68–1.53 | 1-1 10% | 62% | 64% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Borussia M.Gladbach 0.39 xGRasenBallsport Leipzig 1.09 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Borussia M.Gladbach attacking right
RasenBallsport Leipzig attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9' |
 RasenBallsport Leipzig |
David Raum | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 12' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Antonio Nusa | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | David Raum |
| 17' |
 Borussia M.Gladbach |
Florian Neuhaus | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 17' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Jens Castrop | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Florian Neuhaus |
| 21' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Antonio Nusa | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yan Diomande |
| 26' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Conrad Harder | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 35' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Conrad Harder | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Castello Lukeba |
| 41' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Antonio Nusa |
| 45' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Florian Neuhaus | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nico Elvedi |
| 45' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Rocco Reitz | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jens Castrop |
| 46' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Antonio Nusa |
| 49' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | David Raum |
| 56' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Kevin Diks | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Rocco Reitz |
| 57' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Conrad Harder | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bote Baku |
| 62' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Conrad Harder | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Antonio Nusa |
| 66' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Bote Baku | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Johan Bakayoko |
| 69' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Willi Orban | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | David Raum |
| 70' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Conrad Harder | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Castello Lukeba |
| 71' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Franck Honorat | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 77' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Franck Honorat | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 79' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
David Raum | 0.23 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Yan Diomande |
| 80' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Johan Bakayoko | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Willi Orban |
| 87' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Castello Lukeba | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolas Seiwald |
| 90' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Willi Orban | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | David Raum |
| 93' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | David Raum |
| 94' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Ezechiel Banzuzi | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Yan Diomande |
| 95' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Lukas Klostermann | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Borussia M.Gladbach
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Diks DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Franck Honorat FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Rocco Reitz MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| Nico Elvedi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| Joe Scally DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Moritz Nicolas GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Luca Netz DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yannick Engelhardt MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Jens Castrop MR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.23 |
| Florian Neuhaus ML | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| Haris Tabakovic FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giovanni Reyna Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Shuto Machino Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Marvin Friedrich Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tim Kleindienst Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
RasenBallsport Leipzig
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Raum DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0.30 | 0.20 | 0.57 |
| Yan Diomande FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.36 | 0.50 |
| Christoph Baumgartner MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Willi Orban DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.36 |
| Bote Baku DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.24 |
| Castello Lukeba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.42 |
| Péter Gulácsi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolas Seiwald MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.53 |
| Conrad Harder FW | 82 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Antonio Nusa FWL | 66 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.08 | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| Xaver Schlager MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Ezechiel Banzuzi Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Johan Bakayoko Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.27 |
| Tidiam Gomis Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Lukas Klostermann Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |