Borussia M.Gladbach v St. Pauli — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 13 March 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 8
On target
4 – 1
Shots in box
7 – 4
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.16 – 0.02
Goals − xG
+0.92 – -0.63
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Borussia M.Gladbach win
49.6%
Draw
28.2%
St. Pauli win
22.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Borussia M.Gladbach have scored 17 from 16.5 expected and conceded 25 from 23.1 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWLLLLLLW last 10
scored 17
from 16.5 xG
conceded 25
from 23.1 xG
St. Pauli are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLDLDLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 10.7 xG
conceded 20
from 22.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.51–0.93 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.75–0.94 | 1-0 12% | 50% | 50% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Borussia M.Gladbach 1.08 xGSt. Pauli 0.63 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Borussia M.Gladbach attacking right
St. Pauli attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Borussia M.Gladbach |
Hugo Bolin | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kevin Stöger |
| 12' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Yannick Engelhardt | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Philipp Sander |
| 15' |
 St. Pauli |
Arkadiusz Pyrka | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Danel Sinani |
| 19' |
St. Pauli |
Adam Dzwigala | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Danel Sinani |
| 20' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Kevin Stöger | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Haris Tabakovic |
| 26' |
St. Pauli |
Joel Chima Fujita | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lars Ritzka |
| 31' |
St. Pauli |
Jackson Irvine | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lars Ritzka |
| 36' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Kevin Stöger | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 41' |
St. Pauli |
Danel Sinani | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Adam Dzwigala |
| 46' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Kevin Stöger | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 59' |
St. Pauli |
Eric Smith | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Danel Sinani |
| 61' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Franck Honorat | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Joe Scally |
| 70' |
St. Pauli |
Danel Sinani | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 88' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Kevin Diks | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Philipp Sander |
| 91' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Shuto Machino | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Yannick Engelhardt |
| 91' |
St. Pauli |
Jackson Irvine | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Louis Oppie |
| 92' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Florian Neuhaus | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 95' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Lukas Ullrich | 0.26 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Franck Honorat |
Players
Borussia M.Gladbach
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Stöger MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| Kevin Diks DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Yannick Engelhardt MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| Philipp Sander DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| Joe Scally DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Moritz Nicolas GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nico Elvedi DC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Hugo Bolin AMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Haris Tabakovic FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| Wael Mohya AMC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jens Castrop DML | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Lukas Ullrich Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Franck Honorat Sub | 32 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| Florian Neuhaus Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Shuto Machino Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Fabio Chiarodia Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
St. Pauli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Chima Fujita AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Jackson Irvine MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Danel Sinani FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.58 |
| Eric Smith MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Nikola Vasilj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Tomoya Ando DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Hauke Wahl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Arkadiusz Pyrka DMR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Adam Dzwigala DC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.36 |
| Lars Ritzka DML | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| Pereira Lage AMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Louis Oppie Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Martijn Kaars Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andréas Hountondji Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Connor Metcalfe Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |