Borussia M.Gladbach v Werder Bremen — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 14 September 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 13
On target
2 – 7
Shots in box
10 – 10
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
1.11 – 0.80
Goals − xG
-1.59 – +1.75
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Borussia M.Gladbach win
32.9%
Draw
26.1%
Werder Bremen win
41.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Borussia M.Gladbach are conceding fewer than expected — 3.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLDDWLWLL last 10
scored 15
from 14.1 xG
conceded 17
from 20.6 xG
Werder Bremen are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLWDLLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 9.3 xG
conceded 18
from 21.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.43–1.62 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.00–1.68 | 1-1 8% | 71% | 70% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Borussia M.Gladbach 1.59 xGWerder Bremen 2.25 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Borussia M.Gladbach attacking right
Werder Bremen attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Borussia M.Gladbach |
Kevin Diks | 0.07 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 6' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Giovanni Reyna | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Robin Hack |
| 9' |
 Werder Bremen |
Cameron Puertas | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marco Grüll |
| 12' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Shuto Machino | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lukas Ullrich |
| 14' |
Werder Bremen |
Samuel Mbangula | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Yukinari Sugawara |
| 19' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Robin Hack | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kevin Diks |
| 25' |
Werder Bremen |
Jens Stage | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Samuel Mbangula |
| 29' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Nico Elvedi | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Franck Honorat |
| 32' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Rocco Reitz | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 32' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Rocco Reitz | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 34' |
Werder Bremen |
Karim Coulibaly | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 36' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Robin Hack | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Giovanni Reyna |
| 38' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Robin Hack | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Franck Honorat |
| 39' |
Werder Bremen |
Cameron Puertas | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Marco Grüll |
| 41' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Giovanni Reyna | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Shuto Machino |
| 44' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Fabio Chiarodia | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Rocco Reitz | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Robin Hack |
| 46' |
Werder Bremen |
Cameron Puertas | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Samuel Mbangula |
| 53' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Giovanni Reyna | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 55' |
Werder Bremen |
Yukinari Sugawara | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Felix Agu |
| 63' |
Werder Bremen |
Yukinari Sugawara | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Marco Grüll |
| 67' |
Werder Bremen |
Marco Grüll | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 67' |
Werder Bremen |
Yukinari Sugawara | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 68' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Rocco Reitz | 0.36 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Haris Tabakovic |
| 72' |
Werder Bremen |
Marco Grüll | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 73' |
Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 75' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Rocco Reitz | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 78' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.40 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Kevin Stöger |
| 80' |
Werder Bremen |
Justin Njinmah | 0.54 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Victor Boniface |
| 82' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Rocco Reitz | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kevin Stöger |
| 85' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Kevin Diks | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Kevin Stöger |
| 90' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Shuto Machino | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Kevin Diks |
Players
Borussia M.Gladbach
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rocco Reitz DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Kevin Diks DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 0.20 |
| Shuto Machino FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| Nico Elvedi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Moritz Nicolas GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Franck Honorat AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| Giovanni Reyna AMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.09 | 0.25 |
| Fabio Chiarodia DC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Robin Hack AML | 62 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.07 | 0.31 |
| Philipp Sander DMC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Lukas Ullrich DL | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.20 |
| Haris Tabakovic Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.36 | 0.00 |
| Luca Netz Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yannick Engelhardt Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Kevin Stöger Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 0.06 |
| Grant-Leon Ranos Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Werder Bremen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yukinari Sugawara DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.06 | 0.60 |
| Marco Grüll FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.15 | 0.89 |
| Karim Coulibaly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Felix Agu DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| Senne Lynen DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Mio Backhaus GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Cameron Puertas AMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 1.13 |
| Marco Friedl DC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Romano Schmid AMR | 77 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.76 | 0.47 | 0.68 |
| Samuel Mbangula AML | 77 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| Jens Stage DMC | 65 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Leonardo Bittencourt Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Justin Njinmah Sub | 13 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Victor Boniface Sub | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 0.54 |
| Patrice Covic Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Skelly Alvero Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |