Botafogo v Palmeiras — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 6 September 2026 · BRA-Serie A · 2627

Brasileirão results-only Prediction generated 9 Sep 2026, 09:54 UTC

Botafogo

21:30 UTC

Palmeiras

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 6 Sep, 07:53 · 14h before kick-off

Botafogo win

26.5%

model 25.4%

Draw

26.5%

model 27.2%

Palmeiras win

47.0%

model 47.5%

262747

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (413 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 13.0%
1-2 9.5%
0-1 9.3%
0-2 8.4%
0-0 7.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	51.4%	Under 2.5	48.6%
BTTS yes	55.2%	BTTS no	44.8%
Botafogo 1+	67.5%	Botafogo 2+	30.9%
Palmeiras 1+	80.0%	Palmeiras 2+	47.8%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.61. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

85/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Palmeiras (DNB)

Draw no bet · usually 33%

61.8% fair odds 1.62

strong signal · 301 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Botafogo to concede

Home clean sheet · usually 65%

84.2% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 270 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Palmeiras carry the stronger rating, 1725 Elo against 1537.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Palmeiras have an estimated 47.0% win probability, against 26.5% for the draw and 26.5% for Botafogo. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.12 for Botafogo and 1.61 for Palmeiras.

Why Botafogo

Nothing in the data singles out Botafogo.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.5%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Palmeiras can win

Palmeiras carry the stronger rating, 1725 Elo against 1537.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Botafogo, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Palmeiras, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Botafogo: 45% possession, 18.4 shots a match, 15.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Palmeiras: 51% possession, 15.4 shots a match, 11.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Palmeiras are the model's most likely outcome at 47.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.0%. Confidence 85/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	282745	1.25–1.63	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	282746	1.22–1.63	1-1 13%	54%	58%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to win	45.2%	49.0%	24.0%	2.04×	2.04
Botafogo to win	28.3%	27.6%	49.0%	0.56×	3.63
Draw	26.5%	27.5%	27.2%	1.01×	3.63

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras & both teams score	23.2%	22.7%	10.3%	2.20×	4.41
Palmeiras & not both score	22.0%	22.7%	13.8%	1.64×	4.41
Draw & both teams score	19.8%	17.8%	20.7%	0.86×	5.61
Botafogo & both teams score	15.4%	17.8%	21.0%	0.85×	5.62
Botafogo & not both score	12.9%	12.1%	28.1%	0.43×	8.25
Draw & not both score	6.7%	7.3%	6.7%	1.09×	13.72

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras & over 1.5	37.1%	37.6%	17.2%	2.19×	2.66
Palmeiras & over 2.5	29.6%	25.6%	13.2%	1.94×	3.91
Palmeiras & under 3.5	28.9%	25.6%	18.6%	1.37×	3.91
Botafogo & over 1.5	22.4%	21.5%	36.7%	0.58×	4.66
Draw & over 1.5	19.8%	17.6%	20.7%	0.85×	5.68
Botafogo & under 3.5	19.3%	17.6%	36.9%	0.48×	5.68
Draw & under 2.5	19.2%	17.6%	20.2%	0.87×	5.68
Draw & under 3.5	19.2%	17.6%	20.2%	0.87×	5.68
Botafogo & over 2.5	18.0%	17.6%	27.5%	0.64×	5.68
Palmeiras & over 3.5	16.3%	17.6%	5.6%	3.16×	5.68
Palmeiras & under 2.5	15.5%	17.6%	11.0%	1.60×	5.68
Botafogo & under 2.5	10.4%	12.7%	21.6%	0.59×	7.88
Botafogo & over 3.5	9.0%	7.5%	12.2%	0.61×	13.33
Palmeiras & under 1.5	8.1%	7.5%	7.0%	1.07×	13.34
Draw & over 2.5	7.3%	7.5%	7.2%	1.05×	13.34
Draw & over 3.5	7.3%	7.5%	7.2%	1.05×	13.34
Draw & under 1.5	6.7%	7.5%	6.7%	1.12×	13.34
Botafogo & under 1.5	6.0%	7.5%	12.4%	0.60×	13.35

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (1UP)	61.7%	63.9%	—	—	1.56
Botafogo (1UP)	47.3%	44.5%	—	—	2.25

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (2UP)	45.2%	49.2%	—	—	2.03
Botafogo (2UP)	28.3%	31.0%	—	—	3.23

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to win 2nd half	40.2%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
2nd half drawn	34.5%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
Botafogo to win 2nd half	25.4%	27.4%	—	—	3.65

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras under 1.5 in 2nd half	74.4%	78.2%	—	—	1.28
Palmeiras over 0.5 in 2nd half	62.4%	61.0%	—	—	1.64
Palmeiras under 0.5 in 2nd half	37.6%	39.0%	—	—	2.57
Palmeiras over 1.5 in 2nd half	25.6%	21.8%	—	—	4.59

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo under 1.5 in 2nd half	84.0%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Botafogo over 0.5 in 2nd half	51.0%	54.5%	—	—	1.83
Botafogo under 0.5 in 2nd half	49.0%	45.5%	—	—	2.20
Botafogo over 1.5 in 2nd half	16.0%	19.2%	—	—	5.21

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (+2.5)	95.9%	97.1%	90.8%	1.07×	1.03
Palmeiras (+1.5)	87.7%	89.0%	76.8%	1.16×	1.12
Palmeiras (+0.5)	71.7%	73.1%	51.0%	1.43×	1.37
Botafogo (+0.5)	54.8%	51.9%	76.0%	0.68×	1.93
Palmeiras (-0.5)	45.2%	48.1%	24.0%	2.00×	2.08
Botafogo (-0.5)	28.3%	26.9%	49.0%	0.55×	3.72
Botafogo (-1.5)	12.3%	11.0%	23.2%	0.47×	9.12
Botafogo (-2.5)	4.1%	2.9%	9.2%	0.31×	34.80

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to concede	71.4%	77.2%	79.7%	0.97×	1.30
Palmeiras clean sheet	28.6%	22.8%	20.4%	1.12×	4.39

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras clean sheet in 1st half	58.4%	60.4%	—	—	1.66
Palmeiras to concede in 1st half	41.6%	39.6%	—	—	2.53

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to concede in 2nd half	51.0%	54.6%	—	—	1.83
Palmeiras clean sheet in 2nd half	49.0%	45.4%	—	—	2.20

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras over 2.5 corners	80.0%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Palmeiras under 6.5 corners	71.7%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Palmeiras over 3.5 corners	66.5%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Palmeiras under 5.5 corners	60.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Palmeiras over 4.5 corners	52.3%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Palmeiras under 4.5 corners	47.7%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Palmeiras over 5.5 corners	39.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Palmeiras under 3.5 corners	33.5%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Palmeiras over 6.5 corners	28.3%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
Palmeiras under 2.5 corners	20.0%	18.6%	—	—	5.39

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras under 3.5 goals	91.7%	92.7%	97.9%	0.95×	1.08
Palmeiras over 0.5 goals	80.4%	81.7%	65.3%	1.25×	1.22
Palmeiras under 2.5 goals	77.6%	75.4%	90.9%	0.83×	1.33
Palmeiras under 1.5 goals	51.6%	51.9%	72.0%	0.72×	1.93
Palmeiras over 1.5 goals	48.4%	48.1%	28.0%	1.72×	2.08
Palmeiras over 2.5 goals	22.4%	24.6%	9.1%	2.71×	4.07
Palmeiras under 0.5 goals	19.6%	18.3%	34.7%	0.53×	5.46
Palmeiras over 3.5 goals	8.3%	7.3%	2.1%	3.51×	13.79

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras under 1.5 in 1st half	86.1%	87.4%	—	—	1.15
Palmeiras under 0.5 in 1st half	52.1%	50.9%	—	—	1.97
Palmeiras over 0.5 in 1st half	47.9%	49.1%	—	—	2.04
Palmeiras over 1.5 in 1st half	13.9%	12.6%	—	—	7.92

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras scores more in 2nd half	42.1%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Palmeiras scores equally in both	34.2%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
Palmeiras scores more in 1st half	23.7%	21.6%	—	—	4.63

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo (away no bet)	51.7%	51.3%	64.3%	0.80×	1.95
Draw (away no bet)	48.3%	48.7%	35.7%	1.36×	2.05

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras even goals	51.9%	52.2%	55.0%	0.95×	1.92
Palmeiras odd goals	48.1%	47.8%	45.0%	1.06×	2.09

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	83.2%	81.7%	—	—	1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals	16.8%	18.3%	—	—	5.48

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	67.5%	65.2%	—	—	1.53
Both halves under 1.5 goals	32.5%	34.8%	—	—	2.88

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	58.6%	59.4%	—	—	1.68
Palmeiras to score 2+ in a row	39.5%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
Botafogo to score 2+ in a row	26.3%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Either team to score 3+ in a row	21.5%	21.8%	—	—	4.60
Palmeiras to score 3+ in a row	14.6%	12.3%	—	—	8.16
Botafogo to score 3+ in a row	7.3%	7.3%	—	—	13.64

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo corners (+3.5)	82.3%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Palmeiras corners (+3.5)	77.2%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
Botafogo corners (+2.5)	75.6%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
Palmeiras corners (+2.5)	69.6%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Botafogo corners (+1.5)	67.5%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Palmeiras corners (+1.5)	60.8%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Botafogo corners (-1.5)	39.2%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Palmeiras corners (-1.5)	32.5%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Botafogo corners (-2.5)	30.4%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Palmeiras corners (-2.5)	24.4%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Botafogo corners (-3.5)	22.8%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Palmeiras corners (-3.5)	17.7%	20.3%	—	—	4.93

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	38.3%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
0-8 corners	34.5%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	27.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	74.5%	72.7%	—	—	1.38
Under 12.5 corners	69.5%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	65.5%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 11.5 corners	61.7%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Over 9.5 corners	56.2%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Under 10.5 corners	53.1%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 10.5 corners	46.9%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Under 9.5 corners	43.8%	42.3%	—	—	2.37
Over 11.5 corners	38.3%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Under 8.5 corners	34.5%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Over 12.5 corners	30.5%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Under 7.5 corners	25.5%	27.3%	—	—	3.66

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.5%	11.6%	13.7%	0.85×	8.61
1-2	9.3%	7.3%	6.2%	1.17×	13.76
0-1	8.1%	7.3%	7.0%	1.04×	13.76
0-2	7.5%	7.3%	4.1%	1.76×	13.76
2-1	7.2%	7.3%	10.8%	0.67×	13.77
0-0	6.7%	7.3%	6.7%	1.09×	13.77
1-0	6.0%	7.3%	12.4%	0.59×	13.77
2-2	5.8%	7.3%	5.6%	1.31×	13.77
1-3	5.1%	7.3%	2.1%	3.51×	13.77
0-3	4.0%	1.8%	1.7%	1.03×	55.41
2-0	4.4%	1.8%	9.4%	0.19×	55.40
2-3	3.2%	1.8%	1.7%	1.03×	55.43
3-1	3.0%	1.8%	4.0%	0.45×	55.43
3-2	2.4%	1.8%	2.9%	0.63×	55.45
Any other score	3.4%	1.8%	2.5%	0.71×	55.42
0-4	1.6%	1.8%	1.1%	1.62×	55.47
1-4	2.1%	1.8%	0.3%	5.67×	55.46
2-4	1.3%	1.8%	0.3%	5.67×	55.48
3-0	1.8%	1.8%	4.8%	0.38×	55.46
3-3	1.3%	1.8%	1.7%	1.03×	55.48
3-4	0.5%	1.8%	0.2%	11.33×	55.49
4-0	0.6%	1.8%	1.1%	1.62×	55.49
4-1	0.9%	1.8%	2.1%	0.87×	55.49
4-2	0.8%	1.8%	1.0%	1.89×	55.49
4-3	0.4%	1.8%	0.3%	5.67×	55.50
4-4	0.2%	1.8%	0.2%	11.33×	55.50

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (2nd half DNB)	61.3%	66.6%	—	—	1.50
Botafogo (2nd half DNB)	38.7%	33.4%	—	—	3.00

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras leading at HT (DNB)	56.3%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Botafogo leading at HT (DNB)	43.7%	43.2%	—	—	2.32

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo or Palmeiras (12)	73.5%	72.5%	72.8%	1.00×	1.38
Palmeiras or draw (X2)	71.7%	72.4%	51.0%	1.42×	1.38
Botafogo or draw (1X)	54.8%	51.0%	76.0%	0.67×	1.96

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras or draw at HT	74.8%	71.4%	—	—	1.40
Botafogo or draw at HT	67.6%	66.2%	—	—	1.51
Botafogo or Palmeiras at HT	57.6%	58.1%	—	—	1.72

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras or draw (1UP)	71.7%	77.2%	—	—	1.30
Botafogo or draw (1UP)	54.8%	59.0%	—	—	1.69

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras or draw in 2nd half	74.6%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Botafogo or Palmeiras in 2nd half	65.6%	66.2%	—	—	1.51
Botafogo or draw in 2nd half	59.8%	60.7%	—	—	1.65

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.1%	59.4%	—	—	1.69
Neither half drawn	38.9%	40.7%	—	—	2.46

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (DNB)	61.5%	61.8%	32.9%	1.88×	1.62
Botafogo (DNB)	38.5%	38.2%	67.1%	0.57×	2.62

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to score first	52.8%	53.5%	—	—	1.87
Botafogo to score first	40.5%	41.3%	—	—	2.42
No goal scored	6.7%	6.2%	—	—	16.03

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	58.4%	56.6%	51.7%	1.09×	1.77
Not both teams to score	41.6%	43.4%	48.3%	0.90×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	45.9%	45.5%	38.2%	1.19×	2.20
Not both score & under 2.5	32.6%	34.2%	39.0%	0.88×	2.92
Both score & under 2.5	12.5%	11.7%	13.7%	0.86×	8.54
Not both score & over 2.5	9.0%	8.7%	9.5%	0.91×	11.53

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	82.8%	81.0%	87.3%	0.93×	1.24
Both teams to score 2+	17.2%	19.0%	12.7%	1.49×	5.26

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	67.8%	69.4%	—	—	1.44
Both teams to score in 2nd half	32.2%	30.6%	—	—	3.27

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	54.1%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Both score 2nd half only	25.8%	24.6%	—	—	4.06
Both score 1st half only	13.8%	11.6%	—	—	8.63
Both score in both halves	6.3%	6.4%	—	—	15.65

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	79.9%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Both teams to score by HT	20.1%	20.0%	—	—	4.99

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	57.2%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
A half without a goal	42.8%	44.3%	—	—	2.26

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.7%	45.9%	49.8%	0.92×	2.18
4-6 goals	29.8%	27.8%	24.2%	1.15×	3.60
0-1 goals	20.7%	22.7%	25.8%	0.88×	4.41
7+ goals	2.8%	1.9%	0.6%	3.04×	51.67

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to score exactly 1	32.0%	33.0%	37.5%	0.88×	3.03
Palmeiras to score exactly 2	26.0%	27.0%	19.1%	1.42×	3.70
Palmeiras to score 3+	22.4%	24.1%	9.1%	2.66×	4.16
Palmeiras to score exactly 0	19.6%	18.5%	34.7%	0.53×	5.40

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo to score exactly 1	35.8%	36.1%	34.3%	1.05×	2.77
Botafogo to score exactly 0	28.6%	27.1%	20.4%	1.33×	3.69
Botafogo to score exactly 2	22.4%	23.0%	27.2%	0.84×	4.36
Botafogo to score 3+	13.2%	13.5%	18.4%	0.73×	7.41

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	42.4%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
Palmeiras leading at HT	32.4%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
Botafogo leading at HT	25.2%	28.6%	—	—	3.49

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras -1: 1	54.8%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Palmeiras -1: 2	24.0%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Palmeiras -1: X	21.2%	24.0%	—	—	4.17

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (0:1)	71.7%	68.5%	51.0%	1.34×	1.46
Draw (0:1)	16.0%	18.2%	25.9%	0.70×	5.49
Botafogo (0:1)	12.3%	10.6%	23.2%	0.46×	9.45

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (0:2)	87.7%	89.7%	76.8%	1.17×	1.11
Draw (0:2)	8.2%	7.2%	14.1%	0.51×	13.95
Botafogo (0:2)	4.1%	3.0%	9.2%	0.33×	32.95

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (0:3)	95.9%	97.1%	90.8%	1.07×	1.03
Draw (0:3)	3.0%	2.3%	6.7%	0.35×	43.18
Botafogo (0:3)	1.1%	2.3%	2.7%	0.85×	43.60

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (0:4)	98.9%	98.1%	97.3%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.8%	1.2%	1.7%	0.70×	81.70
Botafogo (0:4)	0.2%	1.2%	1.1%	1.10×	82.01

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo (1:0)	54.8%	48.7%	76.0%	0.64×	2.06
Palmeiras (1:0)	24.0%	22.9%	9.5%	2.40×	4.36
Draw (1:0)	21.2%	22.8%	14.6%	1.56×	4.38

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo (2:0)	76.0%	77.7%	90.5%	0.86×	1.29
Draw (2:0)	14.0%	12.0%	6.2%	1.94×	8.30
Palmeiras (2:0)	10.0%	11.9%	3.5%	3.40×	8.41

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.2%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	26.2%	26.1%	—	—	3.83
Halves equal	25.6%	26.1%	—	—	3.83

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo to concede	80.4%	84.2%	65.3%	1.29×	1.19
Botafogo clean sheet	19.6%	15.8%	34.7%	0.45×	6.35

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo clean sheet in 1st half	52.1%	50.9%	—	—	1.97
Botafogo to concede in 1st half	47.9%	49.1%	—	—	2.04

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo to concede in 2nd half	62.4%	60.9%	—	—	1.64
Botafogo clean sheet in 2nd half	37.6%	39.1%	—	—	2.56

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo over 2.5 corners	83.0%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Botafogo over 3.5 corners	70.6%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Botafogo under 6.5 corners	67.0%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Botafogo over 4.5 corners	57.2%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Botafogo under 5.5 corners	55.7%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Botafogo over 5.5 corners	44.3%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Botafogo under 4.5 corners	42.8%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Botafogo over 6.5 corners	33.0%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Botafogo under 3.5 corners	29.4%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Botafogo under 2.5 corners	17.0%	19.1%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo under 3.5 goals	96.2%	97.7%	94.3%	1.04×	1.02
Botafogo under 2.5 goals	86.8%	87.8%	81.6%	1.08×	1.14
Botafogo over 0.5 goals	71.4%	72.7%	79.7%	0.91×	1.38
Botafogo under 1.5 goals	64.4%	62.9%	54.5%	1.15×	1.59
Botafogo over 1.5 goals	35.6%	37.1%	45.5%	0.82×	2.69
Botafogo under 0.5 goals	28.6%	27.3%	20.4%	1.34×	3.67
Botafogo over 2.5 goals	13.2%	12.2%	18.4%	0.66×	8.17
Botafogo over 3.5 goals	3.8%	2.3%	5.7%	0.40×	43.96

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo under 1.5 in 1st half	89.8%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Botafogo under 0.5 in 1st half	58.4%	60.2%	—	—	1.66
Botafogo over 0.5 in 1st half	41.6%	39.8%	—	—	2.51
Botafogo over 1.5 in 1st half	10.2%	12.1%	—	—	8.28

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo scores equally in both	40.7%	40.3%	—	—	2.48
Botafogo scores more in 2nd half	35.1%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Botafogo scores more in 1st half	24.2%	22.5%	—	—	4.45

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (home no bet)	63.0%	61.2%	46.9%	1.31×	1.63
Draw (home no bet)	37.0%	38.8%	53.1%	0.73×	2.58

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo even goals	54.1%	50.3%	51.7%	0.97×	1.99
Botafogo odd goals	45.9%	49.7%	48.3%	1.03×	2.01

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	30.6%	30.4%	—	—	3.29
HT 0-1	19.7%	18.9%	—	—	5.28
HT 1-0	16.2%	18.9%	—	—	5.30
HT 1-1	10.8%	11.2%	—	—	8.96
HT 0-2	6.5%	7.7%	—	—	13.01
HT 2-0	4.4%	2.5%	—	—	39.75
Any other HT score	4.5%	2.5%	—	—	39.74
HT 1-2	3.5%	2.5%	—	—	39.80
HT 2-1	2.9%	2.5%	—	—	39.84
HT 2-2	0.9%	2.5%	—	—	39.95

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras at HT / Palmeiras at FT	25.5%	27.1%	—	—	3.68
Draw at HT / Palmeiras at FT	16.4%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Botafogo at HT / Botafogo at FT	16.2%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.8%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Botafogo at FT	10.2%	11.9%	—	—	8.40
Botafogo at HT / Draw at FT	5.7%	6.6%	—	—	15.26
Palmeiras at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	3.4%	—	—	29.29
Botafogo at HT / Palmeiras at FT	3.2%	3.4%	—	—	29.37
Palmeiras at HT / Botafogo at FT	1.9%	3.4%	—	—	29.42

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to score last	52.9%	53.5%	—	—	1.87
Botafogo to score last	40.5%	40.2%	—	—	2.49
No goal scored	6.7%	6.2%	—	—	16.03

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.3%	93.7%	—	—	1.07
Palmeiras to lead by 1 at any time	61.7%	64.3%	—	—	1.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	48.9%	46.2%	—	—	2.17
Botafogo to lead by 1 at any time	47.3%	46.1%	—	—	2.17
Palmeiras to lead by 2 at any time	30.9%	31.8%	—	—	3.14
Botafogo to lead by 2 at any time	18.2%	17.6%	—	—	5.67
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	18.1%	17.6%	—	—	5.67
Palmeiras to lead by 3 at any time	12.4%	11.4%	—	—	8.81
Botafogo to lead by 3 at any time	5.6%	7.0%	—	—	14.27

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo most corners	48.7%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Palmeiras most corners	41.6%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	9.7%	8.5%	—	—	11.79

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.1%	87.9%	88.9%	0.99×	1.14
1-4 goals	76.8%	78.9%	81.9%	0.96×	1.27
2-6 goals	76.5%	78.9%	73.8%	1.07×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.1%	73.6%	69.8%	1.05×	1.36
2-4 goals	62.8%	62.2%	62.8%	0.99×	1.61
1-3 goals	60.8%	62.2%	68.8%	0.90×	1.61
3-6 goals	52.1%	52.4%	47.1%	1.11×	1.91
3-5 goals	47.7%	48.0%	43.1%	1.11×	2.08
2-3 goals	46.7%	48.0%	49.8%	0.96×	2.08
1-2 goals	38.4%	38.9%	45.9%	0.85×	2.57
3-4 goals	38.4%	38.9%	36.1%	1.08×	2.57
4-6 goals	29.8%	30.6%	24.2%	1.27×	3.27
4-5 goals	25.4%	30.5%	20.2%	1.51×	3.28
5-6 goals	13.7%	13.5%	11.1%	1.22×	7.39
7+ goals	2.8%	2.0%	0.6%	3.17×	49.68

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras never behind	46.0%	53.6%	—	—	1.87
Botafogo never behind	31.6%	36.2%	—	—	2.76

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.7%	50.2%	49.3%	1.02×	1.99
Even number of goals	52.3%	49.8%	50.7%	0.98×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.0%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 1st half	45.0%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.4%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.6%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	93.3%	93.0%	93.3%	1.00×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	92.8%	93.0%	95.4%	0.97×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	83.5%	81.0%	88.4%	0.92×	1.23
Over 1.5 goals	79.3%	78.1%	74.2%	1.05×	1.28
Under 3.5 goals	67.4%	65.3%	75.4%	0.87×	1.53
Over 2.5 goals	54.9%	53.6%	47.5%	1.13×	1.87
Under 2.5 goals	45.1%	46.4%	52.5%	0.88×	2.16
Over 3.5 goals	32.6%	34.7%	24.6%	1.41×	2.88
Under 1.5 goals	20.7%	21.9%	25.8%	0.85×	4.58
Over 4.5 goals	16.5%	19.0%	11.6%	1.63×	5.27
Over 5.5 goals	7.2%	7.0%	4.6%	1.52×	14.26
Under 0.5 goals	6.7%	7.0%	6.7%	1.05×	14.27

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.1%	97.2%	99.3%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	92.0%	92.8%	95.0%	0.98×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	80.4%	80.5%	86.7%	0.93×	1.24
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	72.6%	72.2%	64.9%	1.11×	1.39
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	58.1%	55.6%	68.0%	0.82×	1.80
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	41.9%	44.4%	32.0%	1.39×	2.25
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	27.4%	27.8%	35.1%	0.79×	3.60
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	19.6%	19.5%	13.3%	1.46×	5.12
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	8.0%	7.2%	5.0%	1.45×	13.91
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.9%	2.8%	0.7%	4.16×	36.31

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	88.2%	88.1%	—	—	1.14
Over 0.5 in 1st half	69.4%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half	66.5%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	33.5%	31.5%	—	—	3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half	30.6%	31.4%	—	—	3.19
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.8%	11.9%	—	—	8.41

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	81.2%	82.0%	—	—	1.22
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	76.0%	80.3%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	49.3%	51.8%	—	—	1.93
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	50.7%	48.2%	—	—	2.08
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	24.0%	19.7%	—	—	5.08
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	18.8%	18.0%	—	—	5.55

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo not to score in both halves	78.8%	78.0%	—	—	1.28
Palmeiras not to score in both halves	70.1%	70.3%	—	—	1.42
Palmeiras to score in both halves	29.9%	29.7%	—	—	3.36
Botafogo to score in both halves	21.2%	22.0%	—	—	4.55

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	58.4%	57.8%	51.7%	1.12×	1.73
Only Palmeiras scores	22.0%	22.8%	13.8%	1.65×	4.39
Only Botafogo scores	12.9%	10.9%	28.1%	0.39×	9.20
Neither team scores	6.7%	6.6%	6.7%	0.99×	15.13

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.3%	21.6%	26.9%	0.80×	4.63
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	21.6%	23.1%	0.94×	4.63
Exactly 4 goals	16.1%	18.5%	13.2%	1.41×	5.39
Exactly 1 goals	14.1%	12.4%	19.2%	0.64×	8.09
Exactly 5 goals	9.3%	7.6%	7.2%	1.07×	13.10
6 or more goals	7.2%	7.6%	4.6%	1.65×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	6.7%	7.6%	6.7%	1.14×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.8%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	30.6%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
2 goals in 1st half	21.7%	21.6%	—	—	4.63
3+ goals in 1st half	11.8%	11.9%	—	—	8.42

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	50.7%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
1 goal in 2nd half	30.5%	33.1%	—	—	3.02
No goals in 2nd half	18.8%	18.4%	—	—	5.43

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo not to win both halves	93.5%	93.5%	—	—	1.07
Palmeiras not to win both halves	86.8%	87.5%	—	—	1.14
Palmeiras to win both halves	13.2%	12.5%	—	—	8.02
Botafogo to win both halves	6.5%	6.5%	—	—	15.29

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to win either half	59.4%	59.6%	—	—	1.68
Botafogo to win neither half	56.0%	59.4%	—	—	1.68
Botafogo to win either half	44.0%	40.6%	—	—	2.47
Palmeiras to win neither half	40.6%	40.4%	—	—	2.47

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo not to win to nil	87.1%	88.2%	71.9%	1.23×	1.13
Palmeiras not to win to nil	78.0%	77.2%	86.2%	0.90×	1.30
Palmeiras to win to nil	22.0%	22.8%	13.8%	1.65×	4.39
Botafogo to win to nil	12.9%	11.8%	28.1%	0.42×	8.45

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	26.5%	27.9%	27.2%	1.03×	3.59
Palmeiras by 1	21.2%	23.9%	14.6%	1.63×	4.19
Botafogo by 1	16.0%	17.0%	25.9%	0.66×	5.87
Palmeiras by 2	14.0%	11.7%	6.2%	1.89×	8.52
Palmeiras by 3+	10.0%	11.7%	3.5%	3.34×	8.56
Botafogo by 2	8.2%	7.0%	14.1%	0.50×	14.21
Botafogo by 3+	4.1%	2.8%	9.2%	0.31×	35.13