Botafogo v São Paulo — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 21 November 2026 · BRA-Serie A · 2627

Brasileirão results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Botafogo

20:00 UTC

São Paulo

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 26 Oct, 10:59 · 633h before kick-off

Botafogo win

49.3%

model 49.3%

Draw

27.7%

model 26.4%

São Paulo win

23.0%

model 24.3%

492823

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.6%
2-1 9.6%
1-0 9.3%
2-0 8.7%
0-0 7.3%

Goals

Over 2.5	52.5%	Under 2.5	47.5%
BTTS yes	55.4%	BTTS no	44.6%
Botafogo 1+	81.1%	Botafogo 2+	49.6%
São Paulo 1+	67.0%	São Paulo 2+	30.4%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.11. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

79/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

3-6 goals

Multi goal · usually 47%

52.2% fair odds 1.92

moderate signal · 1994 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Botafogo not to win both halves

Win both halves

83.4% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 588 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Botafogo carry the stronger rating, 1539 Elo against 1474.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Botafogo have an estimated 49.3% win probability, against 27.7% for the draw and 23.0% for São Paulo. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.67 for Botafogo and 1.11 for São Paulo.

Why Botafogo

Botafogo carry the stronger rating, 1539 Elo against 1474.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.7%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why São Paulo can win

Nothing in the data singles out São Paulo.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Botafogo, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for São Paulo, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Botafogo: 45% possession, 18.4 shots a match, 15.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. São Paulo: 56% possession, 16.0 shots a match, 11.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Botafogo are the model's most likely outcome at 49.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.6%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	492624	1.67–1.11	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	502723	1.63–1.05	1-1 13%	50%	53%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo to win	49.8%	47.4%	48.9%	0.97×	2.11
Draw	26.8%	27.9%	27.3%	1.02×	3.58
São Paulo to win	23.4%	24.5%	24.0%	1.02×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo & not both score	27.1%	25.2%	28.1%	0.90×	3.97
Botafogo & both teams score	22.7%	21.8%	21.0%	1.04×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	18.9%	18.0%	20.8%	0.86×	5.56
São Paulo & both teams score	11.7%	13.3%	10.3%	1.29×	7.54
São Paulo & not both score	11.7%	13.3%	13.8%	0.96×	7.54
Draw & not both score	7.9%	8.3%	6.7%	1.25×	12.00

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo & over 1.5	39.7%	34.9%	36.7%	0.95×	2.87
Botafogo & under 3.5	33.8%	30.8%	36.8%	0.84×	3.25
Botafogo & over 2.5	30.6%	30.7%	27.5%	1.12×	3.25
Draw & under 2.5	20.7%	21.6%	20.2%	1.07×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	20.7%	21.6%	20.2%	1.07×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	18.9%	18.0%	20.8%	0.87×	5.55
Botafogo & under 2.5	19.2%	18.0%	21.6%	0.83×	5.55
São Paulo & over 1.5	17.2%	18.0%	17.1%	1.05×	5.56
São Paulo & under 3.5	17.4%	18.0%	18.6%	0.97×	5.55
Botafogo & over 3.5	16.1%	18.0%	12.2%	1.47×	5.56
São Paulo & over 2.5	13.4%	12.8%	13.2%	0.97×	7.79
Botafogo & under 1.5	10.1%	12.8%	12.4%	1.04×	7.79
São Paulo & under 2.5	9.9%	7.9%	11.0%	0.72×	12.62
Draw & under 1.5	7.9%	7.9%	6.7%	1.19×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.1%	7.9%	7.3%	1.08×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.1%	7.9%	7.3%	1.08×	12.63
São Paulo & under 1.5	6.1%	7.9%	7.0%	1.13×	12.63
São Paulo & over 3.5	6.0%	7.9%	5.6%	1.43×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo (1UP)	64.4%	63.0%	—	—	1.59
São Paulo (1UP)	41.3%	38.5%	—	—	2.60

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo (2UP)	49.8%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
São Paulo (2UP)	23.4%	23.8%	—	—	4.19

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo to win 2nd half	40.6%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
2nd half drawn	36.0%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
São Paulo to win 2nd half	23.4%	24.4%	—	—	4.11

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo under 1.5 in 2nd half	86.8%	87.1%	—	—	1.15
São Paulo under 0.5 in 2nd half	53.3%	52.5%	—	—	1.90
São Paulo over 0.5 in 2nd half	46.7%	47.5%	—	—	2.11
São Paulo over 1.5 in 2nd half	13.2%	12.9%	—	—	7.74

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo under 1.5 in 2nd half	76.2%	75.1%	—	—	1.33
Botafogo over 0.5 in 2nd half	60.5%	63.0%	—	—	1.59
Botafogo under 0.5 in 2nd half	39.5%	37.0%	—	—	2.70
Botafogo over 1.5 in 2nd half	23.8%	24.9%	—	—	4.02

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo (+2.5)	88.6%	88.5%	90.8%	0.97×	1.13
Botafogo (+0.5)	76.6%	78.5%	76.0%	1.03×	1.27
São Paulo (+1.5)	73.0%	73.7%	76.8%	0.96×	1.36
São Paulo (+0.5)	50.2%	52.4%	51.1%	1.03×	1.91
Botafogo (-0.5)	49.8%	47.6%	48.9%	0.97×	2.10
Botafogo (-1.5)	27.0%	26.3%	23.2%	1.14×	3.80
São Paulo (-0.5)	23.4%	21.5%	24.0%	0.90×	4.65
Botafogo (-2.5)	11.4%	11.5%	9.2%	1.25×	8.68

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo to concede	80.4%	81.4%	79.7%	1.02×	1.23
São Paulo clean sheet	19.6%	18.6%	20.3%	0.91×	5.39

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo to concede in 1st half	50.4%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
São Paulo clean sheet in 1st half	49.6%	49.2%	—	—	2.03

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo to concede in 2nd half	60.5%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
São Paulo clean sheet in 2nd half	39.5%	38.3%	—	—	2.61

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo over 2.5 corners	78.8%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
São Paulo under 6.5 corners	73.6%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
São Paulo over 3.5 corners	64.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
São Paulo under 5.5 corners	62.7%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
São Paulo over 4.5 corners	50.3%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
São Paulo under 4.5 corners	49.7%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
São Paulo over 5.5 corners	37.3%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
São Paulo under 3.5 corners	35.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.61
São Paulo over 6.5 corners	26.4%	28.4%	—	—	3.53
São Paulo under 2.5 corners	21.2%	24.0%	—	—	4.18

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo under 3.5 goals	97.8%	97.5%	97.9%	1.00×	1.03
São Paulo under 2.5 goals	91.0%	92.3%	90.8%	1.02×	1.08
São Paulo under 1.5 goals	71.8%	71.8%	71.9%	1.00×	1.39
São Paulo over 0.5 goals	65.0%	63.2%	65.4%	0.97×	1.58
São Paulo under 0.5 goals	35.0%	36.8%	34.6%	1.06×	2.72
São Paulo over 1.5 goals	28.2%	28.2%	28.1%	1.00×	3.55
São Paulo over 2.5 goals	9.0%	7.7%	9.2%	0.83×	13.06
São Paulo over 3.5 goals	2.2%	2.5%	2.1%	1.22×	39.86

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo under 1.5 in 1st half	93.3%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
São Paulo under 0.5 in 1st half	65.7%	70.1%	—	—	1.43
São Paulo over 0.5 in 1st half	34.3%	29.9%	—	—	3.35
São Paulo over 1.5 in 1st half	6.7%	6.0%	—	—	16.54

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo scores equally in both	44.9%	43.7%	—	—	2.29
São Paulo scores more in 2nd half	34.5%	33.4%	—	—	3.00
São Paulo scores more in 1st half	20.6%	21.8%	—	—	4.60

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo (away no bet)	65.0%	62.0%	64.2%	0.97×	1.61
Draw (away no bet)	35.0%	38.0%	35.8%	1.06×	2.63

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo even goals	56.1%	56.9%	54.9%	1.04×	1.76
São Paulo odd goals	43.9%	43.1%	45.1%	0.96×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	85.8%	87.8%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	14.2%	12.2%	—	—	8.19

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	63.3%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Both halves under 1.5 goals	36.7%	42.4%	—	—	2.36

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	55.5%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Botafogo to score 2+ in a row	40.7%	38.7%	—	—	2.59
São Paulo to score 2+ in a row	20.4%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Either team to score 3+ in a row	20.2%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Botafogo to score 3+ in a row	15.6%	16.1%	—	—	6.21
São Paulo to score 3+ in a row	4.8%	2.6%	—	—	38.06

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo corners (+3.5)	83.6%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Botafogo corners (+2.5)	77.1%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
São Paulo corners (+3.5)	76.2%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Botafogo corners (+1.5)	69.1%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
São Paulo corners (+2.5)	68.4%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
São Paulo corners (+1.5)	59.4%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Botafogo corners (-1.5)	40.6%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Botafogo corners (-2.5)	31.6%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
São Paulo corners (-1.5)	30.9%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Botafogo corners (-3.5)	23.8%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
São Paulo corners (-2.5)	22.9%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
São Paulo corners (-3.5)	16.4%	20.2%	—	—	4.95

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	37.1%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
0-8 corners	35.5%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
9-11 corners	27.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	73.6%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 12.5 corners	70.6%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 8.5 corners	64.5%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Under 11.5 corners	62.9%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 9.5 corners	55.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 10.5 corners	54.2%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 10.5 corners	45.8%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 9.5 corners	45.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 11.5 corners	37.1%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 8.5 corners	35.5%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Over 12.5 corners	29.4%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	26.4%	27.5%	—	—	3.64

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.8%	11.5%	13.7%	0.84×	8.71
1-0	10.1%	11.5%	12.4%	0.93×	8.72
2-0	9.1%	7.4%	9.4%	0.79×	13.51
2-1	9.6%	7.4%	10.8%	0.69×	13.51
0-0	7.9%	7.4%	6.7%	1.11×	13.51
1-2	6.2%	7.4%	6.2%	1.20×	13.51
2-2	5.0%	7.4%	5.6%	1.33×	13.51
3-1	5.2%	7.4%	4.0%	1.87×	13.51
0-1	6.1%	7.4%	7.0%	1.06×	13.51
3-0	5.0%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.29
1-3	2.2%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.31
1-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.3%	5.40×	58.32
2-3	1.8%	1.7%	1.7%	0.98×	58.31
2-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.3%	5.40×	58.32
3-2	2.7%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	58.30
3-3	1.0%	1.7%	1.9%	0.90×	58.31
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	10.80×	58.32
4-0	2.0%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.31
4-1	2.1%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.31
4-2	1.1%	1.7%	1.0%	1.80×	58.31
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	5.40×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	10.80×	58.32
Any other score	3.0%	1.7%	2.5%	0.68×	58.30
0-2	3.8%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	58.30
0-3	1.3%	1.7%	1.7%	0.98×	58.31
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo (2nd half DNB)	63.4%	63.1%	—	—	1.59
São Paulo (2nd half DNB)	36.6%	36.9%	—	—	2.71

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo leading at HT (DNB)	66.0%	73.5%	—	—	1.36
São Paulo leading at HT (DNB)	34.0%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo or draw (1X)	76.6%	75.5%	76.0%	0.99×	1.32
Botafogo or São Paulo (12)	73.2%	72.1%	72.7%	0.99×	1.39
São Paulo or draw (X2)	50.2%	52.6%	51.1%	1.03×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo or draw at HT	80.7%	83.9%	—	—	1.19
São Paulo or draw at HT	62.6%	61.0%	—	—	1.64
Botafogo or São Paulo at HT	56.7%	57.4%	—	—	1.74

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo or draw (1UP)	76.6%	83.6%	—	—	1.20
São Paulo or draw (1UP)	50.2%	58.5%	—	—	1.71

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo or draw in 2nd half	76.6%	75.6%	—	—	1.32
Botafogo or São Paulo in 2nd half	64.0%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
São Paulo or draw in 2nd half	59.4%	58.1%	—	—	1.72

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	62.6%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Neither half drawn	37.4%	38.6%	—	—	2.59

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo (DNB)	68.1%	67.5%	67.1%	1.01×	1.48
São Paulo (DNB)	31.9%	32.5%	32.9%	0.99×	3.07

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo to score first	56.0%	62.3%	—	—	1.60
São Paulo to score first	36.1%	32.6%	—	—	3.06
No goal scored	7.9%	7.6%	—	—	13.18

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	53.3%	51.3%	51.7%	0.99×	1.95
Not both teams to score	46.7%	48.7%	48.3%	1.01×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	40.5%	41.6%	38.3%	1.09×	2.41
Not both score & under 2.5	37.1%	38.4%	38.9%	0.99×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	12.8%	12.4%	13.7%	0.91×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	9.6%	8.3%	9.5%	0.87×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	86.3%	85.6%	87.1%	0.98×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	13.7%	14.4%	12.9%	1.12×	6.95

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	71.4%	73.6%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	28.6%	26.4%	—	—	3.79

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	58.8%	60.2%	—	—	1.66
Both score 2nd half only	23.7%	21.3%	—	—	4.70
Both score 1st half only	12.6%	10.8%	—	—	9.30
Both score in both halves	4.9%	5.0%	—	—	20.16

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	82.6%	83.4%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	17.4%	16.6%	—	—	6.03

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	53.7%	52.7%	—	—	1.90
A half without a goal	46.3%	47.3%	—	—	2.11

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.7%	47.2%	49.7%	0.95×	2.12
4-6 goals	26.1%	26.6%	24.3%	1.09×	3.76
0-1 goals	24.2%	22.9%	25.7%	0.89×	4.36
7+ goals	2.0%	1.8%	0.6%	2.90×	54.36

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo to score exactly 1	36.7%	35.9%	37.5%	0.96×	2.78
São Paulo to score exactly 0	35.0%	35.9%	34.6%	1.04×	2.79
São Paulo to score exactly 2	19.3%	19.5%	19.0%	1.03×	5.12
São Paulo to score 3+	9.0%	8.6%	9.2%	0.93×	11.69

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo to score exactly 1	32.0%	32.6%	34.3%	0.95×	3.07
Botafogo to score exactly 2	26.0%	26.5%	27.1%	0.98×	3.77
Botafogo to score 3+	22.4%	23.3%	18.6%	1.25×	4.29
Botafogo to score exactly 0	19.6%	18.8%	20.3%	0.93×	5.32

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	43.3%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
Botafogo leading at HT	37.4%	39.0%	—	—	2.57
São Paulo leading at HT	19.3%	16.1%	—	—	6.23

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo -1: 2	50.2%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Botafogo -1: 1	27.0%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Botafogo -1: X	22.8%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo (0:1)	50.2%	51.2%	51.1%	1.00×	1.95
Botafogo (0:1)	27.0%	27.0%	23.2%	1.17×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	22.8%	24.2%	25.9%	0.94×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo (0:2)	73.0%	75.7%	76.8%	0.98×	1.32
Draw (0:2)	15.6%	15.2%	14.1%	1.08×	6.57
Botafogo (0:2)	11.4%	11.0%	9.2%	1.19×	9.10

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo (0:3)	88.6%	90.6%	90.8%	1.00×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	7.5%	5.8%	6.7%	0.87×	17.24
Botafogo (0:3)	4.0%	2.4%	2.7%	0.88×	41.97

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo (0:4)	96.0%	98.1%	97.3%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.8%	1.2%	1.7%	0.70×	81.59
Botafogo (0:4)	1.2%	1.2%	1.1%	1.10×	81.77

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo (1:0)	76.6%	78.5%	76.0%	1.03×	1.27
Draw (1:0)	14.3%	12.7%	14.6%	0.87×	7.86
São Paulo (1:0)	9.0%	6.9%	9.5%	0.73×	14.47

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo (2:0)	91.0%	94.0%	90.5%	1.04×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	6.5%	6.4%	6.2%	1.03×	15.67
São Paulo (2:0)	2.6%	2.3%	3.5%	0.65×	43.76

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	46.5%	48.6%	—	—	2.06
Halves equal	26.8%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
1st half highest scoring	26.6%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo to concede	65.0%	63.7%	65.4%	0.97×	1.57
Botafogo clean sheet	35.0%	36.3%	34.6%	1.05×	2.75

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo clean sheet in 1st half	65.7%	70.5%	—	—	1.42
Botafogo to concede in 1st half	34.3%	29.5%	—	—	3.39

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo clean sheet in 2nd half	53.3%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Botafogo to concede in 2nd half	46.7%	47.4%	—	—	2.11

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo over 2.5 corners	83.1%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Botafogo over 3.5 corners	70.9%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Botafogo under 6.5 corners	66.7%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Botafogo over 4.5 corners	57.5%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Botafogo under 5.5 corners	55.3%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Botafogo over 5.5 corners	44.7%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Botafogo under 4.5 corners	42.5%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Botafogo over 6.5 corners	33.3%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Botafogo under 3.5 corners	29.1%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Botafogo under 2.5 corners	16.9%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo under 3.5 goals	91.7%	92.2%	94.3%	0.98×	1.09
Botafogo over 0.5 goals	80.4%	82.2%	79.7%	1.03×	1.22
Botafogo under 2.5 goals	77.6%	77.8%	81.4%	0.95×	1.29
Botafogo under 1.5 goals	51.6%	53.2%	54.4%	0.98×	1.88
Botafogo over 1.5 goals	48.4%	46.8%	45.6%	1.03×	2.14
Botafogo over 2.5 goals	22.4%	22.2%	18.6%	1.20×	4.50
Botafogo under 0.5 goals	19.6%	17.8%	20.3%	0.88×	5.61
Botafogo over 3.5 goals	8.3%	7.8%	5.7%	1.36×	12.83

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo under 1.5 in 1st half	84.4%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Botafogo over 0.5 in 1st half	50.4%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Botafogo under 0.5 in 1st half	49.6%	49.4%	—	—	2.03
Botafogo over 1.5 in 1st half	15.6%	15.8%	—	—	6.33

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo scores more in 2nd half	39.2%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Botafogo scores equally in both	34.6%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Botafogo scores more in 1st half	26.2%	27.8%	—	—	3.60

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	53.4%	51.5%	53.3%	0.97×	1.94
São Paulo (home no bet)	46.6%	48.5%	46.7%	1.04×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo even goals	51.9%	50.7%	51.6%	0.98×	1.97
Botafogo odd goals	48.1%	49.3%	48.4%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	32.8%	33.6%	—	—	2.98
HT 1-0	22.7%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
HT 0-1	13.5%	11.0%	—	—	9.09
HT 1-1	9.8%	6.9%	—	—	14.51
HT 2-0	8.0%	6.9%	—	—	14.53
Any other HT score	4.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.12
HT 2-1	3.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.18
HT 0-2	2.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.22
HT 1-2	2.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.27
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.36

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo at HT / Botafogo at FT	30.3%	32.7%	—	—	3.06
Draw at HT / Botafogo at FT	17.0%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	16.8%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
São Paulo at HT / São Paulo at FT	12.1%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / São Paulo at FT	9.6%	6.1%	—	—	16.42
Botafogo at HT / Draw at FT	5.4%	6.0%	—	—	16.54
São Paulo at HT / Draw at FT	4.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.85
São Paulo at HT / Botafogo at FT	2.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.93
Botafogo at HT / São Paulo at FT	1.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.96

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo to score last	56.1%	56.6%	—	—	1.77
São Paulo to score last	35.9%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
No goal scored	7.9%	7.6%	—	—	13.18

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.1%	92.5%	—	—	1.08
Botafogo to lead by 1 at any time	64.4%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	46.8%	44.3%	—	—	2.26
São Paulo to lead by 1 at any time	41.3%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Botafogo to lead by 2 at any time	33.2%	29.8%	—	—	3.36
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	17.3%	14.8%	—	—	6.75
São Paulo to lead by 2 at any time	13.8%	10.6%	—	—	9.41
Botafogo to lead by 3 at any time	13.7%	10.6%	—	—	9.41
São Paulo to lead by 3 at any time	3.7%	1.6%	—	—	61.69

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo most corners	50.3%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
São Paulo most corners	40.0%	39.4%	—	—	2.54
Corners level	9.7%	8.4%	—	—	11.98

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.6%	87.4%	88.7%	0.99×	1.14
1-4 goals	78.7%	78.7%	81.7%	0.96×	1.27
2-6 goals	73.8%	72.3%	73.8%	0.98×	1.38
2-5 goals	70.3%	72.3%	69.7%	1.04×	1.38
1-3 goals	64.0%	63.3%	68.7%	0.92×	1.58
2-4 goals	62.4%	63.3%	62.7%	1.01×	1.58
3-6 goals	48.1%	48.4%	47.1%	1.03×	2.06
2-3 goals	47.7%	48.4%	49.7%	0.98×	2.06
3-5 goals	44.6%	43.6%	43.0%	1.01×	2.29
1-2 goals	42.0%	43.6%	45.9%	0.95×	2.29
3-4 goals	36.7%	39.2%	36.0%	1.09×	2.55
4-6 goals	26.1%	30.2%	24.3%	1.24×	3.31
4-5 goals	22.6%	24.5%	20.2%	1.21×	4.09
5-6 goals	11.4%	14.8%	11.3%	1.31×	6.76
7+ goals	2.0%	2.6%	0.6%	4.02×	39.18

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo never behind	50.8%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
São Paulo never behind	27.7%	29.9%	—	—	3.35

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.6%	50.9%	49.2%	1.03×	1.97
Even number of goals	52.4%	49.1%	50.8%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.7%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	44.3%	42.2%	—	—	2.37

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.9%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.1%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.5%	92.3%	95.2%	0.97×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	92.1%	92.3%	93.3%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	86.6%	87.6%	88.3%	0.99×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	75.8%	77.3%	74.3%	1.04×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	71.9%	72.5%	75.2%	0.96×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	50.1%	52.5%	47.6%	1.10×	1.91
Under 2.5 goals	49.9%	47.5%	52.4%	0.91×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	28.1%	27.5%	24.8%	1.11×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	24.2%	22.7%	25.7%	0.88×	4.40
Over 4.5 goals	13.4%	12.4%	11.7%	1.06×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	7.9%	7.7%	6.7%	1.16×	12.93
Over 5.5 goals	5.5%	7.7%	4.8%	1.62×	12.94

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.0%	97.2%	99.3%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	94.0%	92.4%	94.9%	0.97×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	84.3%	81.1%	86.5%	0.94×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	67.4%	67.5%	64.9%	1.04×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	64.0%	61.9%	67.9%	0.91×	1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	36.0%	38.1%	32.1%	1.19×	2.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	32.6%	32.5%	35.1%	0.93×	3.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	15.7%	18.9%	13.5%	1.40×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.0%	7.6%	5.1%	1.48×	13.20
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.0%	2.8%	0.7%	4.24×	35.62

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.6%	89.1%	—	—	1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half	69.0%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Over 0.5 in 1st half	67.2%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	32.8%	31.5%	—	—	3.18
Over 1.5 in 1st half	31.0%	31.4%	—	—	3.18
Over 2.5 in 1st half	10.4%	10.9%	—	—	9.16

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	79.4%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	78.6%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	53.5%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	46.5%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	21.4%	20.5%	—	—	4.89
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	20.6%	20.4%	—	—	4.89

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo not to score in both halves	84.0%	84.4%	—	—	1.19
Botafogo not to score in both halves	69.5%	70.2%	—	—	1.43
Botafogo to score in both halves	30.5%	29.8%	—	—	3.35
São Paulo to score in both halves	16.0%	15.6%	—	—	6.40

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	53.3%	53.8%	51.7%	1.04×	1.86
Only Botafogo scores	27.1%	26.1%	28.1%	0.93×	3.84
Only São Paulo scores	11.7%	11.0%	13.8%	0.80×	9.07
Neither team scores	7.9%	7.1%	6.7%	1.07×	14.00

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.7%	24.9%	26.8%	0.93×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	22.0%	22.6%	23.0%	0.98×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	16.3%	17.5%	19.2%	0.91×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	14.7%	12.1%	13.2%	0.92×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	7.9%	7.6%	6.7%	1.14×	13.13
Exactly 5 goals	7.9%	7.6%	7.1%	1.07×	13.13
6 or more goals	5.5%	7.6%	4.8%	1.60×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.2%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
No goals in 1st half	32.8%	35.8%	—	—	2.80
2 goals in 1st half	20.6%	21.4%	—	—	4.68
3+ goals in 1st half	10.4%	10.8%	—	—	9.25

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	46.5%	44.8%	—	—	2.23
1 goal in 2nd half	32.1%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	21.4%	22.9%	—	—	4.37

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo not to win both halves	95.4%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Botafogo not to win both halves	84.6%	83.6%	—	—	1.20
Botafogo to win both halves	15.4%	16.4%	—	—	6.09
São Paulo to win both halves	4.6%	2.8%	—	—	35.32

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo to win either half	62.6%	65.0%	—	—	1.54
São Paulo to win neither half	62.0%	65.0%	—	—	1.54
São Paulo to win either half	38.0%	35.0%	—	—	2.85
Botafogo to win neither half	37.4%	35.0%	—	—	2.86

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo not to win to nil	88.3%	88.1%	86.2%	1.02×	1.14
Botafogo not to win to nil	72.9%	75.3%	71.9%	1.05×	1.33
Botafogo to win to nil	27.1%	24.7%	28.1%	0.88×	4.05
São Paulo to win to nil	11.7%	11.9%	13.8%	0.86×	8.42

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	26.8%	27.9%	27.3%	1.02×	3.59
Botafogo by 1	22.8%	24.1%	25.9%	0.93×	4.15
Botafogo by 2	15.6%	17.0%	14.1%	1.21×	5.87
São Paulo by 1	14.3%	11.8%	14.6%	0.81×	8.50
Botafogo by 3+	11.4%	11.8%	9.2%	1.28×	8.51
São Paulo by 2	6.5%	7.2%	6.2%	1.16×	13.91
São Paulo by 3+	2.6%	2.7%	3.5%	0.78×	36.89