Botafogo v Vasco da Gama — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 7 October 2026 · BRA-Serie A · 2627

Brasileirão results-only Prediction generated 9 Sep 2026, 09:54 UTC

Botafogo

23:30 UTC

Vasco da Gama

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 9 Sep, 11:32 · 684h before kick-off

Botafogo win

56.7%

model 55.6%

Draw

21.7%

model 23.8%

Vasco da Gama win

21.6%

model 20.7%

572222

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (317 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.1%
2-1 9.9%
2-0 8.8%
1-0 8.1%
3-1 6.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	59.3%	Under 2.5	40.7%
BTTS yes	58.9%	BTTS no	41.1%
Botafogo 1+	85.7%	Botafogo 2+	58.0%
Vasco da Gama 1+	67.6%	Vasco da Gama 2+	31.0%

Expected goals 1.95 – 1.13. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

75/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

95%

★ Best pick

3-6 goals

Multi goal · usually 47%

58.8% fair odds 1.70

strong signal · 1806 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Vasco da Gama (0:3)

Handicap 0:3 · usually 91%

83.9% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 274 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Botafogo carry the stronger rating, 1539 Elo against 1436.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Botafogo have an estimated 56.7% win probability, against 21.7% for the draw and 21.6% for Vasco da Gama. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.95 for Botafogo and 1.13 for Vasco da Gama.

Why Botafogo

Botafogo carry the stronger rating, 1539 Elo against 1436.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.7%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Vasco da Gama can win

Nothing in the data singles out Vasco da Gama.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Botafogo, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Vasco da Gama, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Botafogo: 45% possession, 18.4 shots a match, 15.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Vasco da Gama: 50% possession, 17.2 shots a match, 11.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·

Botafogo are the model's most likely outcome at 56.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.1%. Confidence 75/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	562421	1.95–1.13	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	602218	2.14–1.11	1-1 10%	63%	60%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo to win	55.5%	58.0%	49.0%	1.19×	1.72
Draw	23.8%	22.2%	27.2%	0.82×	4.50
Vasco da Gama to win	20.7%	22.2%	24.0%	0.92×	4.51

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo & both teams score	28.7%	26.2%	21.0%	1.25×	3.82
Botafogo & not both score	26.9%	26.1%	28.1%	0.93×	3.83
Draw & both teams score	18.2%	17.8%	20.7%	0.86×	5.61
Vasco da Gama & both teams score	12.0%	12.1%	10.3%	1.17×	8.26
Vasco da Gama & not both score	8.7%	7.3%	13.8%	0.53×	13.67
Draw & not both score	5.6%	7.3%	6.7%	1.09×	13.74

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo & over 1.5	47.5%	46.8%	36.7%	1.27×	2.14
Botafogo & over 2.5	38.7%	37.7%	27.5%	1.37×	2.66
Botafogo & under 3.5	32.4%	33.1%	36.9%	0.90×	3.03
Botafogo & over 3.5	23.1%	21.5%	12.2%	1.75×	4.66
Draw & over 1.5	18.2%	17.6%	20.7%	0.85×	5.68
Botafogo & under 2.5	16.8%	17.6%	21.6%	0.81×	5.68
Draw & under 2.5	16.6%	17.6%	20.2%	0.87×	5.68
Draw & under 3.5	16.6%	17.6%	20.2%	0.87×	5.68
Vasco da Gama & over 1.5	16.4%	17.6%	17.2%	1.03×	5.68
Vasco da Gama & under 3.5	14.0%	12.7%	18.6%	0.68×	7.87
Vasco da Gama & over 2.5	13.5%	12.7%	13.2%	0.96×	7.87
Botafogo & under 1.5	8.1%	7.5%	12.4%	0.60×	13.34
Draw & over 2.5	7.1%	7.5%	7.2%	1.05×	13.34
Draw & over 3.5	7.1%	7.5%	7.2%	1.05×	13.34
Vasco da Gama & under 2.5	7.2%	7.5%	11.0%	0.68×	13.34
Vasco da Gama & over 3.5	6.7%	7.5%	5.6%	1.35×	13.34
Draw & under 1.5	5.6%	7.5%	6.7%	1.12×	13.35
Vasco da Gama & under 1.5	4.3%	4.5%	7.0%	0.64×	22.31

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo (1UP)	70.2%	76.3%	—	—	1.31
Vasco da Gama (1UP)	40.4%	43.2%	—	—	2.32

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo (2UP)	55.5%	61.0%	—	—	1.64
Vasco da Gama (2UP)	20.7%	20.8%	—	—	4.81

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo to win 2nd half	45.5%	44.5%	—	—	2.25
2nd half drawn	32.6%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
Vasco da Gama to win 2nd half	21.9%	22.2%	—	—	4.50

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama under 1.5 in 2nd half	85.3%	85.3%	—	—	1.17
Vasco da Gama under 0.5 in 2nd half	50.9%	51.4%	—	—	1.94
Vasco da Gama over 0.5 in 2nd half	49.1%	48.6%	—	—	2.06
Vasco da Gama over 1.5 in 2nd half	14.7%	14.7%	—	—	6.79

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo under 1.5 in 2nd half	69.5%	70.0%	—	—	1.43
Botafogo over 0.5 in 2nd half	67.1%	69.8%	—	—	1.43
Botafogo under 0.5 in 2nd half	32.9%	30.2%	—	—	3.31
Botafogo over 1.5 in 2nd half	30.5%	30.0%	—	—	3.33

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama (+2.5)	84.0%	82.6%	90.8%	0.91×	1.21
Botafogo (+0.5)	79.3%	78.8%	76.0%	1.04×	1.27
Vasco da Gama (+1.5)	66.8%	69.1%	76.8%	0.90×	1.45
Botafogo (-0.5)	55.5%	56.8%	49.0%	1.16×	1.76
Vasco da Gama (+0.5)	44.5%	43.2%	51.0%	0.85×	2.32
Botafogo (-1.5)	33.2%	30.9%	23.2%	1.33×	3.24
Vasco da Gama (-0.5)	20.7%	21.2%	24.0%	0.88×	4.72
Botafogo (-2.5)	16.0%	17.4%	9.2%	1.89×	5.74

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama to concede	85.7%	89.5%	79.7%	1.12×	1.12
Vasco da Gama clean sheet	14.3%	10.5%	20.4%	0.52×	9.54

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama to concede in 1st half	56.7%	60.3%	—	—	1.66
Vasco da Gama clean sheet in 1st half	43.3%	39.7%	—	—	2.52

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama to concede in 2nd half	67.1%	67.2%	—	—	1.49
Vasco da Gama clean sheet in 2nd half	32.9%	32.8%	—	—	3.05

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama under 6.5 corners	80.4%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Vasco da Gama over 2.5 corners	73.0%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Vasco da Gama under 5.5 corners	70.7%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Vasco da Gama under 4.5 corners	57.9%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Vasco da Gama over 3.5 corners	57.2%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Vasco da Gama under 3.5 corners	42.8%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Vasco da Gama over 4.5 corners	42.1%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Vasco da Gama over 5.5 corners	29.3%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Vasco da Gama under 2.5 corners	27.0%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Vasco da Gama over 6.5 corners	19.6%	18.6%	—	—	5.36

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama under 3.5 goals	97.2%	97.3%	97.9%	0.99×	1.03
Vasco da Gama under 2.5 goals	89.5%	89.2%	90.9%	0.98×	1.12
Vasco da Gama under 1.5 goals	69.0%	67.4%	72.0%	0.94×	1.49
Vasco da Gama over 0.5 goals	67.6%	67.3%	65.3%	1.03×	1.49
Vasco da Gama under 0.5 goals	32.4%	32.7%	34.7%	0.94×	3.06
Vasco da Gama over 1.5 goals	31.0%	32.6%	28.0%	1.17×	3.06
Vasco da Gama over 2.5 goals	10.5%	10.8%	9.1%	1.19×	9.25
Vasco da Gama over 3.5 goals	2.8%	2.7%	2.1%	1.33×	36.52

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama under 1.5 in 1st half	92.4%	93.3%	—	—	1.07
Vasco da Gama under 0.5 in 1st half	63.7%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Vasco da Gama over 0.5 in 1st half	36.3%	36.4%	—	—	2.74
Vasco da Gama over 1.5 in 1st half	7.6%	6.7%	—	—	14.96

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama scores equally in both	43.1%	42.3%	—	—	2.37
Vasco da Gama scores more in 2nd half	35.7%	38.8%	—	—	2.58
Vasco da Gama scores more in 1st half	21.2%	21.5%	—	—	4.65

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo (away no bet)	70.0%	73.5%	64.3%	1.14×	1.36
Draw (away no bet)	30.0%	26.5%	35.7%	0.74×	3.77

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama even goals	55.3%	58.3%	55.0%	1.06×	1.72
Vasco da Gama odd goals	44.7%	41.7%	45.0%	0.93×	2.40

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	80.3%	81.6%	—	—	1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals	19.7%	18.4%	—	—	5.43

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	71.0%	71.2%	—	—	1.40
Both halves under 1.5 goals	29.0%	28.8%	—	—	3.48

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	63.2%	61.2%	—	—	1.63
Botafogo to score 2+ in a row	49.3%	47.7%	—	—	2.10
Either team to score 3+ in a row	26.3%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Botafogo to score 3+ in a row	21.6%	21.8%	—	—	4.60
Vasco da Gama to score 2+ in a row	21.5%	21.8%	—	—	4.60
Vasco da Gama to score 3+ in a row	5.1%	7.3%	—	—	13.74

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo corners (+3.5)	84.6%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Vasco da Gama corners (+3.5)	80.3%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Botafogo corners (+2.5)	77.6%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Vasco da Gama corners (+2.5)	72.4%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Botafogo corners (+1.5)	68.9%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Vasco da Gama corners (+1.5)	62.8%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Botafogo corners (-1.5)	37.2%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Vasco da Gama corners (-1.5)	31.1%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
Botafogo corners (-2.5)	27.6%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Vasco da Gama corners (-2.5)	22.4%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Botafogo corners (-3.5)	19.7%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Vasco da Gama corners (-3.5)	15.4%	20.2%	—	—	4.95

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	48.6%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	26.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	24.5%	25.6%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	81.9%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	75.5%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	67.7%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	61.9%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	58.6%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	51.4%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	48.6%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	41.4%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 7.5 corners	38.1%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	32.3%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	24.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Over 12.5 corners	18.1%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.1%	11.6%	13.7%	0.85×	8.62
2-1	9.9%	7.3%	10.8%	0.67×	13.75
2-0	8.8%	7.3%	9.4%	0.77×	13.76
1-0	8.1%	7.3%	12.4%	0.59×	13.76
3-1	6.4%	7.3%	4.0%	1.83×	13.77
0-0	5.6%	7.3%	6.7%	1.09×	13.77
1-2	5.7%	7.3%	6.2%	1.17×	13.77
2-2	5.6%	7.3%	5.6%	1.30×	13.77
3-0	5.7%	7.3%	4.8%	1.52×	13.77
Any other score	5.4%	7.3%	2.5%	2.85×	13.77
0-1	4.3%	1.8%	7.0%	0.26×	55.40
0-2	2.9%	1.8%	4.1%	0.44×	55.44
3-2	3.6%	1.8%	2.9%	0.63×	55.42
4-0	2.8%	1.8%	1.1%	1.62×	55.44
4-1	3.1%	1.8%	2.1%	0.87×	55.43
1-3	2.1%	1.8%	2.1%	0.87×	55.46
2-3	2.1%	1.8%	1.7%	1.03×	55.46
3-3	1.4%	1.8%	1.7%	1.03×	55.47
4-2	1.8%	1.8%	1.0%	1.89×	55.46
0-3	1.1%	1.8%	1.7%	1.03×	55.48
0-4	0.3%	1.8%	1.1%	1.62×	55.50
1-4	0.6%	1.8%	0.3%	5.67×	55.49
2-4	0.6%	1.8%	0.3%	5.67×	55.49
3-4	0.4%	1.8%	0.2%	11.33×	55.50
4-3	0.7%	1.8%	0.3%	5.67×	55.49
4-4	0.2%	1.8%	0.2%	11.33×	55.50

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo (2nd half DNB)	67.5%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Vasco da Gama (2nd half DNB)	32.5%	33.3%	—	—	3.00

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo leading at HT (DNB)	69.6%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Vasco da Gama leading at HT (DNB)	30.4%	32.5%	—	—	3.08

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo or draw (1X)	79.3%	77.8%	76.0%	1.02×	1.29
Botafogo or Vasco da Gama (12)	76.2%	77.8%	72.8%	1.07×	1.29
Vasco da Gama or draw (X2)	44.5%	42.0%	51.0%	0.82×	2.38

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo or draw at HT	81.6%	81.7%	—	—	1.23
Botafogo or Vasco da Gama at HT	60.7%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Vasco da Gama or draw at HT	57.8%	58.1%	—	—	1.72

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo or draw (1UP)	79.3%	84.9%	—	—	1.18
Vasco da Gama or draw (1UP)	44.5%	45.9%	—	—	2.18

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo or draw in 2nd half	78.1%	77.8%	—	—	1.29
Botafogo or Vasco da Gama in 2nd half	67.5%	66.2%	—	—	1.51
Vasco da Gama or draw in 2nd half	54.5%	55.5%	—	—	1.80

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	58.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Neither half drawn	42.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.37

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo (DNB)	72.9%	71.4%	67.1%	1.06×	1.40
Vasco da Gama (DNB)	27.1%	28.6%	32.9%	0.87×	3.50

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo to score first	59.9%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Vasco da Gama to score first	34.6%	32.1%	—	—	3.11
No goal scored	5.6%	6.2%	—	—	16.11

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	58.9%	56.6%	51.7%	1.10×	1.77
Not both teams to score	41.1%	43.4%	48.3%	0.90×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	47.8%	45.6%	38.2%	1.20×	2.19
Not both score & under 2.5	29.6%	31.5%	39.0%	0.81×	3.17
Not both score & over 2.5	11.5%	11.7%	9.5%	1.23×	8.55
Both score & under 2.5	11.1%	11.7%	13.7%	0.86×	8.55

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	82.0%	81.0%	87.3%	0.93×	1.24
Both teams to score 2+	18.0%	19.0%	12.7%	1.50×	5.25

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	66.7%	69.4%	—	—	1.44
Both teams to score in 2nd half	33.3%	30.6%	—	—	3.27

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	52.8%	54.8%	—	—	1.83
Both score 2nd half only	26.5%	24.7%	—	—	4.05
Both score 1st half only	14.0%	11.6%	—	—	8.62
Both score in both halves	6.8%	6.4%	—	—	15.61

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	79.3%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Both teams to score by HT	20.7%	20.1%	—	—	4.98

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	60.7%	62.9%	—	—	1.59
A half without a goal	39.3%	37.1%	—	—	2.70

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.2%	45.9%	49.8%	0.92×	2.18
4-6 goals	33.2%	31.9%	24.2%	1.32×	3.13
0-1 goals	17.9%	20.6%	25.8%	0.80×	4.85
7+ goals	3.7%	2.0%	0.6%	3.07×	51.27

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama to score exactly 1	36.5%	34.6%	37.5%	0.92×	2.89
Vasco da Gama to score exactly 0	32.4%	33.1%	34.7%	0.95×	3.03
Vasco da Gama to score exactly 2	20.6%	24.0%	19.1%	1.26×	4.16
Vasco da Gama to score 3+	10.5%	13.3%	9.1%	1.47×	7.53

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo to score 3+	30.9%	30.4%	18.4%	1.65×	3.29
Botafogo to score exactly 1	27.8%	27.1%	34.3%	0.79×	3.69
Botafogo to score exactly 2	27.1%	27.1%	27.2%	1.00×	3.70
Botafogo to score exactly 0	14.3%	13.5%	20.4%	0.67×	7.38

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo leading at HT	42.2%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
Draw at HT	39.3%	36.8%	—	—	2.71
Vasco da Gama leading at HT	18.4%	18.3%	—	—	5.45

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo -1: 2	44.5%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Botafogo -1: 1	33.2%	32.1%	—	—	3.11
Botafogo -1: X	22.3%	24.0%	—	—	4.17

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama (0:1)	44.5%	42.5%	51.0%	0.83×	2.36
Botafogo (0:1)	33.2%	34.5%	23.2%	1.49×	2.90
Draw (0:1)	22.3%	24.5%	25.9%	0.95×	4.08

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama (0:2)	66.8%	66.0%	76.8%	0.86×	1.52
Draw (0:2)	17.2%	16.3%	14.1%	1.15×	6.13
Botafogo (0:2)	16.0%	16.3%	9.2%	1.76×	6.15

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama (0:3)	84.0%	83.9%	90.8%	0.92×	1.19
Draw (0:3)	9.6%	6.9%	6.7%	1.03×	14.54
Botafogo (0:3)	6.4%	6.8%	2.7%	2.51×	14.72

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama (0:4)	93.6%	94.3%	97.3%	0.97×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	4.2%	1.3%	1.7%	0.72×	79.96
Botafogo (0:4)	2.2%	1.2%	1.1%	1.11×	81.01

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo (1:0)	79.3%	78.8%	76.0%	1.04×	1.27
Draw (1:0)	12.5%	11.7%	14.6%	0.80×	8.58
Vasco da Gama (1:0)	8.2%	8.6%	9.5%	0.90×	11.63

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo (2:0)	91.8%	91.6%	90.5%	1.01×	1.09
Draw (2:0)	5.8%	6.5%	6.2%	1.05×	15.43
Vasco da Gama (2:0)	2.4%	2.7%	3.5%	0.77×	37.02

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.4%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	27.1%	26.1%	—	—	3.83
Halves equal	24.6%	23.2%	—	—	4.31

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo to concede	67.6%	67.1%	65.3%	1.03×	1.49
Botafogo clean sheet	32.4%	32.9%	34.7%	0.95×	3.04

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo clean sheet in 1st half	63.7%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Botafogo to concede in 1st half	36.3%	36.6%	—	—	2.73

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo clean sheet in 2nd half	50.9%	51.2%	—	—	1.95
Botafogo to concede in 2nd half	49.1%	48.8%	—	—	2.05

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo under 6.5 corners	76.7%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Botafogo over 2.5 corners	76.4%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Botafogo under 5.5 corners	66.3%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Botafogo over 3.5 corners	61.5%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Botafogo under 4.5 corners	53.3%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Botafogo over 4.5 corners	46.7%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Botafogo under 3.5 corners	38.5%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Botafogo over 5.5 corners	33.7%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Botafogo under 2.5 corners	23.6%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Botafogo over 6.5 corners	23.3%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo under 3.5 goals	86.7%	87.8%	94.3%	0.93×	1.14
Botafogo over 0.5 goals	85.7%	87.7%	79.7%	1.10×	1.14
Botafogo under 2.5 goals	69.1%	69.0%	81.6%	0.85×	1.45
Botafogo over 1.5 goals	58.0%	56.0%	45.5%	1.23×	1.79
Botafogo under 1.5 goals	42.0%	44.0%	54.5%	0.81×	2.27
Botafogo over 2.5 goals	30.9%	31.0%	18.4%	1.68×	3.22
Botafogo under 0.5 goals	14.3%	12.3%	20.4%	0.60×	8.15
Botafogo over 3.5 goals	13.3%	12.2%	5.7%	2.14×	8.16

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo under 1.5 in 1st half	79.5%	79.4%	—	—	1.26
Botafogo over 0.5 in 1st half	56.7%	60.1%	—	—	1.67
Botafogo under 0.5 in 1st half	43.3%	39.9%	—	—	2.50
Botafogo over 1.5 in 1st half	20.5%	20.6%	—	—	4.87

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo scores more in 2nd half	41.7%	40.4%	—	—	2.48
Botafogo scores equally in both	30.9%	31.5%	—	—	3.17
Botafogo scores more in 1st half	27.3%	27.8%	—	—	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama (home no bet)	46.5%	50.7%	46.9%	1.08×	1.97
Draw (home no bet)	53.5%	49.3%	53.1%	0.93×	2.03

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo even goals	51.0%	50.2%	51.7%	0.97×	1.99
Botafogo odd goals	49.0%	49.8%	48.3%	1.03×	2.01

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	27.7%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
HT 1-0	22.9%	22.7%	—	—	4.41
HT 0-1	12.3%	11.2%	—	—	8.94
HT 1-1	10.6%	11.2%	—	—	8.96
HT 2-0	9.7%	7.7%	—	—	12.96
Any other HT score	6.3%	7.7%	—	—	13.01
HT 2-1	4.4%	2.5%	—	—	39.75
HT 0-2	2.8%	2.5%	—	—	39.84
HT 1-2	2.3%	2.5%	—	—	39.87
HT 2-2	1.0%	2.5%	—	—	39.94

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo at HT / Botafogo at FT	35.1%	41.3%	—	—	2.42
Draw at HT / Botafogo at FT	17.4%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.9%	12.0%	—	—	8.37
Vasco da Gama at HT / Vasco da Gama at FT	10.7%	11.9%	—	—	8.39
Draw at HT / Vasco da Gama at FT	8.1%	6.6%	—	—	15.20
Botafogo at HT / Draw at FT	5.3%	6.6%	—	—	15.27
Vasco da Gama at HT / Draw at FT	4.6%	3.4%	—	—	29.31
Vasco da Gama at HT / Botafogo at FT	3.1%	3.4%	—	—	29.37
Botafogo at HT / Vasco da Gama at FT	1.8%	3.4%	—	—	29.43

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo to score last	60.0%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Vasco da Gama to score last	34.5%	35.9%	—	—	2.79
No goal scored	5.6%	6.2%	—	—	16.11

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.4%	93.8%	—	—	1.07
Botafogo to lead by 1 at any time	70.2%	76.7%	—	—	1.30
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	53.8%	51.0%	—	—	1.96
Botafogo to lead by 2 at any time	40.6%	42.0%	—	—	2.38
Vasco da Gama to lead by 1 at any time	40.4%	42.0%	—	—	2.38
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	22.8%	19.8%	—	—	5.04
Botafogo to lead by 3 at any time	19.1%	17.6%	—	—	5.67
Vasco da Gama to lead by 2 at any time	13.6%	11.4%	—	—	8.79
Vasco da Gama to lead by 3 at any time	3.7%	2.6%	—	—	38.00

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo most corners	47.8%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Vasco da Gama most corners	41.3%	43.6%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	10.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.3%	87.9%	88.9%	0.99×	1.14
2-6 goals	78.4%	78.9%	73.8%	1.07×	1.27
1-4 goals	74.7%	73.7%	81.9%	0.90×	1.36
2-5 goals	73.0%	73.6%	69.8%	1.06×	1.36
2-4 goals	62.4%	62.2%	62.8%	0.99×	1.61
1-3 goals	57.5%	58.9%	68.8%	0.86×	1.70
3-6 goals	55.6%	58.8%	47.1%	1.25×	1.70
3-5 goals	50.2%	52.3%	43.1%	1.21×	1.91
2-3 goals	45.2%	48.0%	49.8%	0.96×	2.09
3-4 goals	39.6%	38.9%	36.1%	1.08×	2.57
1-2 goals	35.1%	38.8%	45.9%	0.85×	2.57
4-6 goals	33.2%	34.0%	24.2%	1.41×	2.94
4-5 goals	27.8%	30.6%	20.2%	1.51×	3.27
5-6 goals	16.0%	18.1%	11.1%	1.62×	5.53
7+ goals	3.7%	2.0%	0.6%	3.19×	49.32

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo never behind	54.1%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Vasco da Gama never behind	24.2%	24.1%	—	—	4.14

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	48.0%	50.2%	49.3%	1.02×	1.99
Even number of goals	52.0%	49.8%	50.7%	0.98×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.1%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 1st half	45.9%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.1%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.0%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.4%	93.0%	93.3%	1.00×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	90.9%	93.0%	95.4%	0.97×	1.08
Over 1.5 goals	82.1%	81.0%	74.2%	1.09×	1.24
Under 4.5 goals	80.3%	81.0%	88.4%	0.92×	1.24
Under 3.5 goals	63.1%	61.7%	75.4%	0.82×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	59.3%	57.6%	47.5%	1.21×	1.74
Under 2.5 goals	40.7%	42.4%	52.5%	0.81×	2.36
Over 3.5 goals	36.9%	38.3%	24.6%	1.55×	2.61
Over 4.5 goals	19.7%	19.0%	11.6%	1.64×	5.25
Under 1.5 goals	17.9%	19.0%	25.8%	0.74×	5.26
Over 5.5 goals	9.1%	7.0%	4.6%	1.53×	14.21
Under 0.5 goals	5.6%	7.0%	6.7%	1.05×	14.29

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.1%	97.2%	99.3%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	89.8%	88.3%	95.0%	0.93×	1.13
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	76.8%	76.5%	64.9%	1.18×	1.31
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	76.2%	76.4%	86.7%	0.88×	1.31
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	52.4%	52.9%	68.0%	0.78×	1.89
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	47.6%	47.1%	32.0%	1.47×	2.12
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	23.8%	23.6%	13.3%	1.77×	4.24
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	23.2%	23.5%	35.1%	0.67×	4.25
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	10.2%	11.7%	5.0%	2.36×	8.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.9%	2.8%	0.7%	4.18×	36.15

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	86.0%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Over 0.5 in 1st half	72.3%	72.4%	—	—	1.38
Under 1.5 in 1st half	62.9%	63.0%	—	—	1.59
Over 1.5 in 1st half	37.1%	37.0%	—	—	2.71
Under 0.5 in 1st half	27.7%	27.6%	—	—	3.63
Over 2.5 in 1st half	14.0%	12.0%	—	—	8.35

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	82.9%	82.0%	—	—	1.22
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	73.4%	76.2%	—	—	1.31
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	46.4%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	53.6%	48.3%	—	—	2.07
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	26.6%	23.8%	—	—	4.21
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	17.1%	18.0%	—	—	5.56

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama not to score in both halves	82.2%	81.6%	—	—	1.23
Botafogo not to score in both halves	62.0%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Botafogo to score in both halves	38.0%	37.6%	—	—	2.66
Vasco da Gama to score in both halves	17.8%	18.4%	—	—	5.44

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	58.9%	57.9%	51.7%	1.12×	1.73
Only Botafogo scores	26.9%	25.5%	28.1%	0.90×	3.93
Only Vasco da Gama scores	8.7%	6.6%	13.8%	0.48×	15.06
Neither team scores	5.6%	6.6%	6.7%	0.99×	15.17

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	22.8%	21.6%	26.9%	0.80×	4.63
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	21.6%	23.1%	0.94×	4.63
Exactly 4 goals	17.2%	18.6%	13.2%	1.41×	5.39
Exactly 1 goals	12.3%	12.3%	19.2%	0.64×	8.11
Exactly 5 goals	10.6%	12.3%	7.2%	1.72×	8.12
6 or more goals	9.1%	7.6%	4.6%	1.65×	13.11
Exactly 0 goals	5.6%	7.6%	6.7%	1.14×	13.16

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.2%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	27.7%	27.5%	—	—	3.63
2 goals in 1st half	23.0%	21.6%	—	—	4.62
3+ goals in 1st half	14.0%	12.0%	—	—	8.37

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	53.6%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
1 goal in 2nd half	29.3%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
No goals in 2nd half	17.1%	18.3%	—	—	5.46

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama not to win both halves	95.9%	96.6%	—	—	1.04
Botafogo not to win both halves	80.6%	82.7%	—	—	1.21
Botafogo to win both halves	19.4%	17.3%	—	—	5.79
Vasco da Gama to win both halves	4.1%	3.4%	—	—	29.17

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Botafogo to win either half	68.3%	67.2%	—	—	1.49
Vasco da Gama to win neither half	63.8%	63.8%	—	—	1.57
Vasco da Gama to win either half	36.2%	36.2%	—	—	2.76
Botafogo to win neither half	31.7%	32.8%	—	—	3.05

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama not to win to nil	91.3%	92.5%	86.2%	1.07×	1.08
Botafogo not to win to nil	73.1%	74.5%	71.9%	1.04×	1.34
Botafogo to win to nil	26.9%	25.5%	28.1%	0.90×	3.93
Vasco da Gama to win to nil	8.7%	7.5%	13.8%	0.54×	13.32

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	23.8%	23.9%	27.2%	0.88×	4.19
Botafogo by 1	22.3%	23.9%	25.9%	0.92×	4.19
Botafogo by 2	17.2%	17.1%	14.1%	1.21×	5.86
Botafogo by 3+	16.0%	17.0%	9.2%	1.85×	5.87
Vasco da Gama by 1	12.5%	11.7%	14.6%	0.80×	8.53
Vasco da Gama by 2	5.8%	7.0%	6.2%	1.13×	14.26
Vasco da Gama by 3+	2.4%	2.8%	3.5%	0.81×	35.37