Bournemouth v Arsenal — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 3 January 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 12
On target
3 – 5
Shots in box
5 – 7
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.12 – 0.53
Goals − xG
+1.05 – +1.68
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bournemouth win
21.7%
Draw
25.0%
Arsenal win
53.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bournemouth are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WDDLDDDLLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.2 xG
conceded 15
from 13.0 xG
Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWWWWLWWW last 10
scored 16
from 20.1 xG
conceded 6
from 9.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.94–1.63 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.12–1.71 | 1-1 11% | 54% | 55% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bournemouth 0.95 xGArsenal 1.32 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bournemouth attacking right
Arsenal attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Arsenal |
Martin Odegaard | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Martín Zubimendi |
| 7' |
Arsenal |
Noni Madueke | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jurriën Timber |
| 9' |
 Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 12' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 15' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel | 0.41 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 15' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Martinelli | 0.10 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Piero Hincapié |
| 17' |
Arsenal |
Viktor Gyokeres | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Noni Madueke |
| 22' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | James Hill |
| 24' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 29' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Antoine Semenyo |
| 30' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Justin Kluivert |
| 34' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Justin Kluivert |
| 40' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Evanilson |
| 52' |
Bournemouth |
David Brooks | 0.05 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Justin Kluivert |
| 53' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Martin Odegaard |
| 57' |
Bournemouth |
Alejandro Jiménez | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 57' |
Bournemouth |
David Brooks | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 58' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 70' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Bukayo Saka |
| 75' |
Bournemouth |
Eli Junior Kroupi | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | Lewis Cook |
| 77' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lewis Cook |
| 85' |
Arsenal |
Mikel Merino | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 86' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Declan Rice |
| 87' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jurriën Timber |
| 87' |
Arsenal |
Mikel Merino | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 91' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Jesus | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 95' |
Bournemouth |
Amine Adli | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Arsenal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Declan Rice MC | 90 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.08 | 0.68 |
| Gabriel DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| William Saliba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Piero Hincapié DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| Martín Zubimendi MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.21 |
| Jurriën Timber DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.68 |
| David Raya GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Martin Odegaard MC | 82 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.50 |
| Gabriel Martinelli FWL | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Noni Madueke FWR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| Viktor Gyokeres FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Gabriel Jesus Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Leandro Trossard Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Bukayo Saka Sub | 21 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.47 | 0.56 |
| Mikel Merino Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Tavernier DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.02 | 0.27 |
| Antoine Semenyo AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Alejandro Jiménez DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Marcos Senesi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| James Hill DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Adrien Truffert DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Djordje Petrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Evanilson FW | 76 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.04 | 0.42 |
| Justin Kluivert AMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| Alex Scott DMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| David Brooks AML | 69 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Amine Adli Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Eli Junior Kroupi Sub | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lewis Cook Sub | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| Enes Ünal Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |