Bournemouth v Aston Villa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 7 February 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
20 – 7
On target
8 – 4
Shots in box
12 – 4
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.28 – 0.10
Goals − xG
-0.85 – +0.35
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bournemouth win
37.0%
Draw
26.5%
Aston Villa win
36.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bournemouth are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WDDLDDDLLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.2 xG
conceded 15
from 13.0 xG
Aston Villa are conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLLDLWDWW last 10
scored 15
from 14.5 xG
conceded 15
from 18.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.59–1.58 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.87–1.36 | 1-1 10% | 63% | 63% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bournemouth 1.85 xGAston Villa 0.65 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bournemouth attacking right
Aston Villa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Bournemouth |
Alex Scott | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Amine Adli |
| 8' |
Bournemouth |
Eli Junior Kroupi | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Amine Adli |
| 11' |
Bournemouth |
Eli Junior Kroupi | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Evanilson |
| 11' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.45 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 12' |
Bournemouth |
Eli Junior Kroupi | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marcos Senesi |
| 17' |
Bournemouth |
Eli Junior Kroupi | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Evanilson |
| 21' |
 Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.24 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jadon Sancho |
| 24' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Amine Adli |
| 28' |
Bournemouth |
Alex Scott | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alejandro Jiménez |
| 33' |
Bournemouth |
Alex Scott | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Rayan |
| 33' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 33' |
Bournemouth |
Rayan | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | — |
| 34' |
Aston Villa |
Emiliano Buendía | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 46' |
Bournemouth |
Rayan | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alex Scott |
| 47' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Lewis Cook |
| 53' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Emiliano Buendía |
| 54' |
Bournemouth |
Rayan | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | James Hill |
| 58' |
Bournemouth |
Amine Adli | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Eli Junior Kroupi |
| 60' |
Aston Villa |
Jadon Sancho | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 62' |
Aston Villa |
Matthew Cash | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jadon Sancho |
| 62' |
Aston Villa |
Tyrone Mings | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Douglas Luiz |
| 65' |
Bournemouth |
Marcos Senesi | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Amine Adli |
| 78' |
Bournemouth |
Ryan Christie | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 82' |
Aston Villa |
Matthew Cash | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ross Barkley |
| 87' |
Bournemouth |
Ryan Christie | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Evanilson |
| 92' |
Bournemouth |
Ryan Christie | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 93' |
Bournemouth |
Marcos Senesi | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lewis Cook |
Players
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evanilson FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.68 | 0.17 | 1.12 |
| Marcos Senesi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.30 | 0.58 |
| Alex Scott DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.01 | 0.65 |
| Rayan AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 0.53 |
| Amine Adli AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.04 | 0.32 | 0.69 |
| James Hill DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.45 |
| Adrien Truffert DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Lewis Cook DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| Djordje Petrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Alejandro Jiménez DR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.47 |
| Eli Junior Kroupi AMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.44 | 0.04 | 0.38 |
| Ryan Christie Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| David Brooks Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Enes Ünal Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Smith Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
Aston Villa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Rogers AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.24 | 0.16 | 0.45 |
| Tyrone Mings DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Matthew Cash DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Emiliano Martinez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Ezri Konsa Ngoyo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Amadou Onana DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Ollie Watkins FW | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Lucas Digne DL | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Jadon Sancho AMR | 80 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| Douglas Luiz DMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| Emiliano Buendía AML | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| Leon Bailey Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ross Barkley Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Ian Maatsen Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tammy Abraham Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lamare Bogarde Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |