Bournemouth v Brentford — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 15 March 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 11
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
12 – 7
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.04 – 0.51
Goals − xG
-1.03 – +0.40
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bournemouth win
51.7%
Draw
24.6%
Brentford win
23.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bournemouth are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDDLDD last 10
scored 16
from 17.6 xG
conceded 11
from 16.1 xG
Brentford are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLWLDDWDD last 10
scored 14
from 19.1 xG
conceded 12
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.84–1.19 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.15–1.42 | 2-1 9% | 69% | 67% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bournemouth 2.03 xGBrentford 1.60 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bournemouth attacking right
Brentford attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Bournemouth |
Milos Kerkez | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Justin Kluivert |
| 5' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Antoine Semenyo |
| 5' |
Bournemouth |
Ryan Christie | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 8' |
Bournemouth |
Dean Huijsen | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tyler Adams |
| 16' |
 Brentford |
Vitaly Janelt | 0.00 | Open Play | — | Own Goal | — |
| 19' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Christian Nørgaard |
| 29' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.34 | From Corner | — | Goal | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 30' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Christian Nørgaard |
| 31' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.11 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kristoffer Ajer |
| 34' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Justin Kluivert |
| 35' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dean Huijsen |
| 35' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Evanilson |
| 36' |
Brentford |
Vitaly Janelt | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kristoffer Ajer |
| 42' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 43' |
Bournemouth |
Ryan Christie | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Antoine Semenyo |
| 45' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ryan Christie |
| 46' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.36 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Justin Kluivert |
| 57' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Yoane Wissa |
| 64' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Evanilson |
| 70' |
Brentford |
Christian Nørgaard | 0.56 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 77' |
Brentford |
Mikkel Damsgaard | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 80' |
Bournemouth |
David Brooks | 0.53 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Luis Sinisterra |
| 81' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | David Brooks |
| 86' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lewis Cook |
| 88' |
Bournemouth |
James Hill | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Milos Kerkez |
| 89' |
Brentford |
Christian Nørgaard | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 90' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Evanilson |
| 93' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evanilson FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.66 | 0.16 | 1.19 |
| Antoine Semenyo AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.54 | 0.09 | 0.69 |
| Marcus Tavernier AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 1.26 |
| Milos Kerkez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 1.12 |
| Dean Huijsen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.50 | 1.19 |
| Lewis Cook DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.87 |
| Kepa GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Illia Zabarnyi DC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.22 |
| Tyler Adams DMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1.11 |
| Justin Kluivert AMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.52 | 0.70 |
| Ryan Christie DMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.26 |
| Luis Sinisterra Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 0.54 |
| David Brooks Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.53 | 0.02 | 0.61 |
| James Hill Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Dango Ouattara Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Daniel Jebbison Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Brentford
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Nørgaard DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.58 | 0.06 | 0.99 |
| Yoane Wissa FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.04 | 0.41 |
| Bryan Mbeumo AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| Nathan Collins DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Mark Flekken GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Keane Lewis-Potter DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Ethan Pinnock DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Kevin Schade AML | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Mikkel Damsgaard AMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Vitaly Janelt DMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Kristoffer Ajer DR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 0.37 |
| Yehor Yarmolyuk Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sepp van den Berg Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ben Mee Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yunus Konak Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |