Bournemouth v Brighton and Hove Albion — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 13 September 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 6
On target
5 – 2
Shots in box
7 – 5
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.96 – 0.12
Goals − xG
+0.56 – +0.38
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bournemouth win
42.6%
Draw
25.9%
Brighton and Hove Albion win
31.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bournemouth are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDDLDD last 10
scored 16
from 17.6 xG
conceded 11
from 16.1 xG
Brighton and Hove Albion have scored 19 from 19.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDWLWLLWLD last 10
scored 19
from 19.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.45–1.21 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.83–1.49 | 1-1 10% | 64% | 65% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bournemouth 1.44 xGBrighton and Hove Albion 0.63 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bournemouth attacking right
Brighton and Hove Albion attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17' |
 Bournemouth |
Alex Scott | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Antoine Semenyo |
| 25' |
Bournemouth |
David Brooks | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Veljko Milosavljevic |
| 25' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Adrien Truffert |
| 35' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 39' |
 Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yankuba Minteh | 0.26 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Georginio Rutter |
| 47' |
Bournemouth |
David Brooks | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Adrien Truffert |
| 47' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.17 | Open Play | — | Goal | Yankuba Minteh |
| 53' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yankuba Minteh | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Joël Veltman |
| 54' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.09 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 60' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 65' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alex Scott |
| 74' |
Bournemouth |
Amine Adli | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 77' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Antoine Semenyo |
| 79' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yankuba Minteh | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lewis Dunk |
| 80' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tyler Adams |
| 84' |
Bournemouth |
James Hill | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Justin Kluivert |
| 85' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Carlos Baleba | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Semenyo AMR | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.84 | 0.12 | 0.27 |
| Evanilson FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| James Hill DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Marcus Tavernier AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.20 |
| Adrien Truffert DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Djordje Petrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Marcos Senesi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Tyler Adams DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Veljko Milosavljevic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| David Brooks AML | 71 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Alex Scott DMC | 71 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| Justin Kluivert Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| Amine Adli Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lewis Cook Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Julio Soler Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alejandro Jiménez Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Brighton and Hove Albion
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankuba Minteh AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.35 | 0.17 | 0.49 |
| Kaoru Mitoma AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Lewis Dunk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.26 |
| Joël Veltman DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.32 |
| Jan Paul van Hecke DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Bart Verbruggen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Yasin Ayari Sub | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Danny Welbeck FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Georginio Rutter AMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 0.49 |
| James Milner DMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Ferdi Kadioglu Sub | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Maxim De Cuyper DL | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlos Baleba Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Brajan Gruda Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stefanos Tzimas Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jack Hinshelwood DMC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |