Bournemouth v Brighton and Hove Albion — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 2 December 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627

Premier League xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Bournemouth

20:00 UTC

Brighton and Hove Albion

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 945h before kick-off

Bournemouth win

48.2%

model 46.3%

Draw

22.6%

model 23.2%

Brighton and Hove Albion win

29.2%

model 30.5%

482329

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.4%
2-1 9.2%
1-0 7.5%
1-2 7.3%
2-0 6.6%

Goals

Over 2.5	61.2%	Under 2.5	38.8%
BTTS yes	62.3%	BTTS no	37.7%
Bournemouth 1+	82.9%	Bournemouth 2+	52.6%
Brighton and Hove Albion 1+	75.2%	Brighton and Hove Albion 2+	40.7%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.40. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

94/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Bournemouth scores more in 1st half

Home highest scoring half · usually 26%

51.3% fair odds 1.95

strong signal · 433 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Over 0.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 72%

83.8% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 388 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Bournemouth have created 1.82 xG a match over their last five while Brighton and Hove Albion have allowed 1.37.
At home Bournemouth average 2.37 xG a match.

Risk factors

Brighton and Hove Albion have scored 3.20 a match from 2.19 xG over five matches, which usually corrects.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Bournemouth have an estimated 48.2% win probability, against 29.2% for Brighton and Hove Albion and 22.6% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.76 for Bournemouth and 1.40 for Brighton and Hove Albion.

Why Bournemouth

Bournemouth have created 1.82 xG a match over their last five while Brighton and Hove Albion have allowed 1.37. At home Bournemouth average 2.37 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.6%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Brighton and Hove Albion can win

Brighton and Hove Albion carry the stronger rating, 1715 Elo against 1638. Brighton and Hove Albion have created 2.19 xG a match over their last five while Bournemouth have allowed 1.30. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five. Away from home Brighton and Hove Albion average 2.06 xG a match.

Key players

Bournemouth's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Evanilson (0.45), Marcus Tavernier (0.45), Rayan (0.35). Brighton and Hove Albion's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Danny Welbeck (0.38), Pascal Groß (0.36), Jack Hinshelwood (0.32).

Availability

2 of Brighton and Hove Albion's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Bournemouth: 52% possession, 16.8 shots a match, 8.2 faced, 0.61 xG a match from set pieces. Brighton and Hove Albion: 54% possession, 17.8 shots a match, 10.4 faced, 0.75 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Bournemouth are the model's most likely outcome at 48.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.4%. Confidence 94/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Bournemouth are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

WDDLDDDLLW last 10 scored 12 from 18.2 xG conceded 15 from 13.0 xG

Brighton and Hove Albion are finishing sharply above their chances — 4.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WLLWLDWWWW last 10 scored 26 from 21.9 xG conceded 9 from 13.7 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	462331	1.76–1.40	0%	0%	0%
dc-goals	432730	1.58–1.28	1-1 13%	54%	58%
dc-xg	462331	1.79–1.44	1-1 10%	63%	64%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth to win	46.8%	47.4%	43.0%	1.10×	2.11
Brighton and Hove Albion to win	30.7%	30.4%	32.3%	0.94×	3.29
Draw	22.5%	24.4%	24.8%	0.99×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth & both teams score	27.3%	25.2%	22.9%	1.10×	3.97
Bournemouth & not both score	19.4%	18.0%	20.1%	0.89×	5.56
Draw & both teams score	18.9%	18.0%	20.0%	0.90×	5.56
Brighton and Hove Albion & both teams score	18.6%	18.0%	15.3%	1.17×	5.56
Brighton and Hove Albion & not both score	12.1%	13.3%	17.1%	0.78×	7.54
Draw & not both score	3.6%	4.9%	4.9%	0.98×	20.59

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth & over 1.5	40.1%	40.2%	36.6%	1.10×	2.49
Bournemouth & over 2.5	33.9%	30.8%	30.3%	1.02×	3.25
Bournemouth & under 3.5	25.8%	26.1%	26.5%	0.98×	3.84
Brighton and Hove Albion & over 1.5	25.4%	26.1%	25.3%	1.03×	3.84
Brighton and Hove Albion & over 2.5	21.5%	21.6%	19.8%	1.09×	4.63
Bournemouth & over 3.5	20.9%	21.6%	16.5%	1.31×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	18.9%	18.0%	20.0%	0.90×	5.56
Brighton and Hove Albion & under 3.5	18.3%	18.0%	21.8%	0.82×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	13.4%	12.8%	16.3%	0.79×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	13.4%	12.8%	16.3%	0.79×	7.79
Bournemouth & under 2.5	12.9%	12.8%	12.8%	1.00×	7.79
Brighton and Hove Albion & over 3.5	12.4%	12.8%	10.6%	1.22×	7.79
Draw & over 2.5	9.1%	7.9%	8.6%	0.92×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	9.1%	7.9%	8.6%	0.92×	12.63
Brighton and Hove Albion & under 2.5	9.2%	7.9%	12.6%	0.63×	12.63
Bournemouth & under 1.5	6.7%	7.9%	6.4%	1.23×	12.63
Brighton and Hove Albion & under 1.5	5.3%	7.9%	7.1%	1.12×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	3.6%	4.8%	4.9%	0.97×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth (1UP)	64.5%	63.0%	62.0%	1.02×	1.59
Brighton and Hove Albion (1UP)	51.1%	52.5%	51.5%	1.02×	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth (2UP)	46.8%	50.0%	44.7%	1.12×	2.00
Brighton and Hove Albion (2UP)	30.7%	30.4%	34.5%	0.88×	3.29

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion to win 2nd half	35.9%	36.0%	32.7%	1.10×	2.78
2nd half drawn	35.5%	35.9%	31.2%	1.15×	2.78
Bournemouth to win 2nd half	28.6%	25.9%	36.2%	0.72×	3.86

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion under 1.5 in 2nd half	78.9%	79.1%	79.9%	0.99×	1.27
Brighton and Hove Albion over 0.5 in 2nd half	57.4%	54.6%	57.8%	0.94×	1.83
Brighton and Hove Albion under 0.5 in 2nd half	42.6%	45.4%	42.2%	1.08×	2.20
Brighton and Hove Albion over 1.5 in 2nd half	21.1%	20.9%	20.1%	1.04×	4.77

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth under 1.5 in 2nd half	83.5%	82.6%	75.2%	1.10×	1.21
Bournemouth over 0.5 in 2nd half	51.6%	55.1%	58.3%	0.94×	1.82
Bournemouth under 0.5 in 2nd half	48.4%	45.0%	41.7%	1.08×	2.23
Bournemouth over 1.5 in 2nd half	16.5%	17.4%	24.8%	0.70×	5.73

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion (+2.5)	88.4%	88.5%	89.1%	0.99×	1.13
Brighton and Hove Albion (+1.5)	74.2%	73.7%	76.0%	0.97×	1.36
Bournemouth (+0.5)	69.3%	68.7%	67.7%	1.01×	1.46
Brighton and Hove Albion (+0.5)	53.2%	52.4%	57.0%	0.92×	1.91
Bournemouth (-0.5)	46.8%	47.6%	43.0%	1.11×	2.10
Brighton and Hove Albion (-0.5)	30.7%	31.3%	32.3%	0.97×	3.19
Bournemouth (-1.5)	25.8%	26.3%	24.0%	1.10×	3.80
Bournemouth (-2.5)	11.6%	11.5%	10.9%	1.06×	8.67

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion to concede	84.3%	81.6%	78.1%	1.04×	1.23
Brighton and Hove Albion clean sheet	15.7%	18.4%	21.9%	0.84×	5.42

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion to concede in 1st half	67.6%	70.8%	51.2%	1.38×	1.41
Brighton and Hove Albion clean sheet in 1st half	32.4%	29.2%	48.8%	0.60×	3.43

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion to concede in 2nd half	51.6%	54.9%	58.3%	0.94×	1.82
Brighton and Hove Albion clean sheet in 2nd half	48.4%	45.1%	41.7%	1.08×	2.22

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion under 6.5 corners	78.5%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Brighton and Hove Albion over 2.5 corners	77.7%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Brighton and Hove Albion under 5.5 corners	67.6%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Brighton and Hove Albion over 3.5 corners	62.1%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Brighton and Hove Albion under 4.5 corners	53.7%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Brighton and Hove Albion over 4.5 corners	46.3%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Brighton and Hove Albion under 3.5 corners	37.9%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Brighton and Hove Albion over 5.5 corners	32.4%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Brighton and Hove Albion under 2.5 corners	22.3%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Brighton and Hove Albion over 6.5 corners	21.5%	24.0%	—	—	4.17

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion under 3.5 goals	93.8%	92.3%	94.6%	0.98×	1.08
Brighton and Hove Albion under 2.5 goals	81.7%	81.5%	85.1%	0.96×	1.23
Brighton and Hove Albion over 0.5 goals	77.0%	76.3%	75.0%	1.02×	1.31
Brighton and Hove Albion under 1.5 goals	56.9%	59.4%	60.7%	0.98×	1.68
Brighton and Hove Albion over 1.5 goals	43.1%	40.6%	39.3%	1.03×	2.46
Brighton and Hove Albion under 0.5 goals	23.0%	23.7%	25.0%	0.95×	4.21
Brighton and Hove Albion over 2.5 goals	18.3%	18.5%	14.9%	1.24×	5.39
Brighton and Hove Albion over 3.5 goals	6.2%	7.7%	5.4%	1.43×	13.07

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion under 1.5 in 1st half	87.3%	89.2%	89.3%	1.00×	1.12
Brighton and Hove Albion under 0.5 in 1st half	54.1%	55.7%	59.7%	0.93×	1.79
Brighton and Hove Albion over 0.5 in 1st half	45.9%	44.3%	40.3%	1.10×	2.26
Brighton and Hove Albion over 1.5 in 1st half	12.7%	10.8%	10.7%	1.01×	9.23

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion scores more in 2nd half	38.7%	37.4%	40.8%	0.92×	2.67
Brighton and Hove Albion scores equally in both	36.8%	37.3%	37.5%	1.00×	2.68
Brighton and Hove Albion scores more in 1st half	24.5%	22.2%	21.8%	1.02×	4.51

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth (away no bet)	67.5%	66.4%	63.4%	1.05×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	32.5%	33.6%	36.6%	0.92×	2.98

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion even goals	52.7%	52.6%	53.4%	0.98×	1.90
Brighton and Hove Albion odd goals	47.3%	47.4%	46.6%	1.02×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	75.7%	81.1%	80.0%	1.01×	1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals	24.3%	18.9%	20.0%	0.95×	5.28

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	74.5%	67.5%	70.2%	0.96×	1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals	25.5%	32.5%	29.8%	1.09×	3.08

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	65.9%	62.3%	61.5%	1.01×	1.61
Bournemouth to score 2+ in a row	44.6%	38.8%	39.2%	0.99×	2.58
Brighton and Hove Albion to score 2+ in a row	31.7%	29.2%	29.7%	0.98×	3.43
Either team to score 3+ in a row	26.8%	25.2%	26.1%	0.97×	3.97
Bournemouth to score 3+ in a row	17.7%	16.3%	16.4%	0.99×	6.15
Brighton and Hove Albion to score 3+ in a row	9.7%	5.6%	10.1%	0.56×	17.78

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth corners (+3.5)	88.3%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Bournemouth corners (+2.5)	82.4%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Bournemouth corners (+1.5)	74.9%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Brighton and Hove Albion corners (+3.5)	73.5%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Brighton and Hove Albion corners (+2.5)	64.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Brighton and Hove Albion corners (+1.5)	54.7%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Bournemouth corners (-1.5)	45.3%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Bournemouth corners (-2.5)	35.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Bournemouth corners (-3.5)	26.5%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Brighton and Hove Albion corners (-1.5)	25.1%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Brighton and Hove Albion corners (-2.5)	17.6%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Brighton and Hove Albion corners (-3.5)	11.7%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	35.4%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
0-8 corners	35.2%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
9-11 corners	29.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	74.5%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 12.5 corners	72.8%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 8.5 corners	64.8%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 11.5 corners	64.6%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	55.3%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	54.7%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	45.3%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	44.7%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 11.5 corners	35.4%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 8.5 corners	35.2%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 12.5 corners	27.2%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	25.5%	27.5%	—	—	3.64

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	9.8%	7.4%	11.5%	0.65×	13.50
2-1	9.1%	7.4%	8.9%	0.83×	13.51
1-0	6.7%	7.4%	6.4%	1.15×	13.51
1-2	7.2%	7.4%	6.8%	1.08×	13.51
2-2	6.7%	7.4%	7.7%	0.97×	13.51
0-1	5.3%	7.4%	7.1%	1.04×	13.51
2-0	6.2%	7.4%	6.4%	1.15×	13.51
3-1	5.6%	7.4%	5.4%	1.36×	13.51
Any other score	5.7%	7.4%	4.4%	1.69×	13.51
0-0	3.6%	1.7%	4.9%	0.35×	58.30
0-2	3.9%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.30
0-3	1.9%	1.7%	2.6%	0.67×	58.31
0-4	0.7%	1.7%	1.1%	1.60×	58.32
1-3	3.5%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.30
1-4	1.3%	1.7%	1.4%	1.22×	58.31
2-3	3.3%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.30
2-4	1.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.60×	58.31
3-0	3.8%	1.7%	5.0%	0.34×	58.30
3-2	4.1%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.30
3-3	2.0%	1.7%	0.7%	2.31×	58.31
3-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.5%	3.47×	58.32
4-0	1.8%	1.7%	1.3%	1.30×	58.31
4-1	2.6%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.30
4-2	1.9%	1.7%	1.3%	1.30×	58.31
4-3	0.9%	1.7%	0.9%	1.89×	58.31
4-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	5.20×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion (2nd half DNB)	55.7%	59.6%	47.5%	1.25×	1.68
Bournemouth (2nd half DNB)	44.3%	40.4%	52.5%	0.77×	2.48

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth leading at HT (DNB)	70.6%	73.5%	59.8%	1.23×	1.36
Brighton and Hove Albion leading at HT (DNB)	29.4%	26.5%	40.2%	0.66×	3.77

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth or Brighton and Hove Albion (12)	77.5%	75.6%	75.2%	1.00×	1.32
Bournemouth or draw (1X)	69.3%	69.6%	67.7%	1.03×	1.44
Brighton and Hove Albion or draw (X2)	53.2%	52.6%	57.0%	0.92×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth or draw at HT	80.0%	79.4%	75.8%	1.05×	1.26
Bournemouth or Brighton and Hove Albion at HT	68.1%	67.2%	60.2%	1.12×	1.49
Brighton and Hove Albion or draw at HT	52.0%	47.8%	64.0%	0.75×	2.09

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth or draw (1UP)	69.3%	76.4%	74.3%	1.03×	1.31
Brighton and Hove Albion or draw (1UP)	53.2%	58.7%	65.3%	0.90×	1.70

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion or draw in 2nd half	71.4%	74.1%	63.8%	1.16×	1.35
Bournemouth or Brighton and Hove Albion in 2nd half	64.5%	64.1%	68.8%	0.93×	1.56
Bournemouth or draw in 2nd half	64.1%	64.0%	67.3%	0.95×	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	56.1%	58.4%	57.1%	1.02×	1.71
Neither half drawn	43.9%	41.6%	42.9%	0.97×	2.40

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth (DNB)	60.4%	62.7%	57.1%	1.10×	1.60
Brighton and Hove Albion (DNB)	39.6%	37.3%	42.9%	0.87×	2.68

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth to score first	53.8%	53.4%	51.8%	1.03×	1.87
Brighton and Hove Albion to score first	42.6%	41.7%	43.4%	0.96×	2.40
No goal scored	3.6%	4.3%	4.9%	0.87×	23.37

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	64.9%	56.7%	58.0%	0.98×	1.76
Not both teams to score	35.1%	43.3%	42.0%	1.03×	2.31

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	55.1%	47.5%	46.7%	1.02×	2.10
Not both score & under 2.5	25.7%	33.3%	30.2%	1.10×	3.00
Both score & under 2.5	9.8%	8.3%	11.5%	0.72×	12.06
Not both score & over 2.5	9.4%	8.3%	11.9%	0.70×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	76.2%	79.6%	82.1%	0.97×	1.26
Both teams to score 2+	23.8%	20.4%	17.9%	1.14×	4.91

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	70.4%	73.6%	68.6%	1.07×	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	29.6%	26.4%	31.4%	0.84×	3.78

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	48.5%	53.0%	55.8%	0.95×	1.89
Both score 1st half only	21.8%	21.3%	12.9%	1.65×	4.70
Both score 2nd half only	20.4%	21.2%	24.7%	0.86×	4.71
Both score in both halves	9.2%	6.8%	6.8%	1.00×	14.60

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	69.0%	72.8%	80.4%	0.91×	1.37
Both teams to score by HT	31.0%	27.2%	19.6%	1.39×	3.67

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	65.5%	65.9%	61.5%	1.07×	1.52
A half without a goal	34.5%	34.1%	38.5%	0.88×	2.94

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	42.0%	42.1%	46.3%	0.91×	2.37
4-6 goals	37.2%	35.1%	32.7%	1.07×	2.85
0-1 goals	15.6%	20.2%	18.3%	1.10×	4.95
7+ goals	5.2%	7.6%	2.8%	2.71×	13.18

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion to score exactly 1	33.8%	33.8%	35.8%	0.95×	2.96
Brighton and Hove Albion to score exactly 2	24.8%	22.3%	24.5%	0.91×	4.48
Brighton and Hove Albion to score exactly 0	23.0%	22.3%	25.0%	0.89×	4.48
Brighton and Hove Albion to score 3+	18.3%	19.6%	14.9%	1.31×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth to score exactly 1	29.1%	26.6%	29.3%	0.91×	3.77
Bournemouth to score 3+	28.3%	26.6%	22.9%	1.16×	3.77
Bournemouth to score exactly 2	26.9%	26.5%	26.1%	1.02×	3.77
Bournemouth to score exactly 0	15.7%	18.8%	21.9%	0.86×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth leading at HT	48.0%	52.2%	36.0%	1.45×	1.92
Draw at HT	31.9%	32.8%	39.8%	0.82×	3.05
Brighton and Hove Albion leading at HT	20.0%	20.6%	24.2%	0.85×	4.85

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth -1: 2	53.2%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Bournemouth -1: 1	25.8%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Bournemouth -1: X	21.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion (0:1)	53.2%	51.3%	57.0%	0.90×	1.95
Bournemouth (0:1)	25.8%	27.0%	24.0%	1.13×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	21.0%	24.2%	19.0%	1.27×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion (0:2)	74.2%	75.7%	76.0%	1.00×	1.32
Draw (0:2)	14.1%	11.0%	13.2%	0.83×	9.09
Bournemouth (0:2)	11.6%	11.0%	10.9%	1.01×	9.10

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion (0:3)	88.4%	90.7%	89.1%	1.02×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	7.3%	5.8%	7.6%	0.77×	17.21
Bournemouth (0:3)	4.4%	2.4%	3.4%	0.70×	42.02

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion (0:4)	95.6%	98.1%	96.6%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	3.0%	1.2%	2.1%	0.59×	81.77
Bournemouth (0:4)	1.4%	1.2%	1.4%	0.87×	81.95

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth (1:0)	69.3%	70.2%	67.7%	1.04×	1.43
Draw (1:0)	16.6%	17.1%	16.7%	1.02×	5.85
Brighton and Hove Albion (1:0)	14.1%	12.7%	15.7%	0.81×	7.87

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth (2:0)	85.9%	88.5%	84.3%	1.05×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	8.9%	6.4%	9.2%	0.69×	15.67
Brighton and Hove Albion (2:0)	5.2%	6.4%	6.5%	0.98×	15.71

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1st half highest scoring	42.0%	44.2%	25.9%	1.71×	2.26
2nd half highest scoring	35.2%	35.2%	49.5%	0.71×	2.84
Halves equal	22.9%	24.5%	24.7%	0.99×	4.09

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth to concede	77.0%	76.1%	75.0%	1.01×	1.32
Bournemouth clean sheet	23.0%	23.9%	25.0%	0.96×	4.18

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth clean sheet in 1st half	54.1%	55.7%	59.7%	0.93×	1.79
Bournemouth to concede in 1st half	45.9%	44.3%	40.3%	1.10×	2.26

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth to concede in 2nd half	57.4%	55.0%	57.8%	0.95×	1.82
Bournemouth clean sheet in 2nd half	42.6%	45.0%	42.2%	1.07×	2.22

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth over 2.5 corners	86.6%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Bournemouth over 3.5 corners	75.1%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Bournemouth under 6.5 corners	64.5%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Bournemouth over 4.5 corners	61.6%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Bournemouth under 5.5 corners	52.1%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Bournemouth over 5.5 corners	47.9%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Bournemouth under 4.5 corners	38.4%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Bournemouth over 6.5 corners	35.5%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Bournemouth under 3.5 corners	24.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Bournemouth under 2.5 corners	13.4%	13.8%	—	—	7.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth under 3.5 goals	88.3%	87.3%	91.5%	0.95×	1.15
Bournemouth over 0.5 goals	84.3%	82.2%	78.1%	1.05×	1.22
Bournemouth under 2.5 goals	71.7%	74.2%	77.1%	0.96×	1.35
Bournemouth over 1.5 goals	55.3%	58.6%	48.9%	1.20×	1.71
Bournemouth under 1.5 goals	44.7%	41.4%	51.1%	0.81×	2.41
Bournemouth over 2.5 goals	28.3%	25.8%	22.9%	1.12×	3.88
Bournemouth under 0.5 goals	15.7%	17.8%	21.9%	0.81×	5.62
Bournemouth over 3.5 goals	11.7%	12.7%	8.5%	1.50×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth under 1.5 in 1st half	68.9%	69.2%	84.4%	0.82×	1.44
Bournemouth over 0.5 in 1st half	67.6%	69.1%	51.2%	1.35×	1.45
Bournemouth under 0.5 in 1st half	32.4%	30.9%	48.8%	0.63×	3.24
Bournemouth over 1.5 in 1st half	31.1%	30.8%	15.6%	1.97×	3.25

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth scores more in 1st half	45.1%	46.9%	26.4%	1.78×	2.13
Bournemouth scores equally in both	31.4%	33.1%	37.7%	0.88×	3.02
Bournemouth scores more in 2nd half	23.6%	21.3%	36.0%	0.59×	4.70

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion (home no bet)	57.7%	56.4%	56.6%	1.00×	1.77
Draw (home no bet)	42.3%	43.6%	43.4%	1.00×	2.30

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth even goals	51.2%	50.7%	54.0%	0.94×	1.97
Bournemouth odd goals	48.8%	49.3%	46.0%	1.07×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 1-0	19.8%	18.7%	21.5%	0.87×	5.36
HT 0-0	17.5%	18.6%	28.1%	0.66×	5.37
Any other HT score	12.7%	11.0%	5.4%	2.02×	9.11
HT 1-1	12.1%	11.0%	10.9%	1.01×	9.11
HT 2-0	11.1%	11.0%	8.0%	1.37×	9.12
HT 0-1	10.8%	11.0%	14.8%	0.74×	9.13
HT 2-1	6.8%	6.9%	3.7%	1.86×	14.48
HT 1-2	3.7%	2.4%	2.9%	0.82×	42.05
HT 0-2	3.3%	2.4%	4.4%	0.54×	42.08
HT 2-2	2.1%	2.4%	1.0%	2.40×	42.16

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth at HT / Bournemouth at FT	36.3%	41.3%	26.4%	1.57×	2.42
Brighton and Hove Albion at HT / Brighton and Hove Albion at FT	15.4%	16.7%	16.7%	1.00×	5.98
Draw at HT / Brighton and Hove Albion at FT	11.5%	12.6%	12.3%	1.03×	7.91
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	11.3%	12.6%	13.9%	0.91×	7.91
Draw at HT / Bournemouth at FT	9.1%	6.0%	13.9%	0.44×	16.56
Bournemouth at HT / Draw at FT	7.9%	6.0%	6.3%	0.95×	16.60
Bournemouth at HT / Brighton and Hove Albion at FT	3.8%	3.5%	3.5%	1.01×	28.65
Brighton and Hove Albion at HT / Draw at FT	3.3%	3.5%	4.8%	0.73×	28.67
Brighton and Hove Albion at HT / Bournemouth at FT	1.3%	3.5%	2.9%	1.21×	28.74

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth to score last	53.8%	52.2%	50.1%	1.04×	1.92
Brighton and Hove Albion to score last	42.6%	40.0%	45.0%	0.89×	2.50
No goal scored	3.6%	4.3%	4.9%	0.87×	23.37

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.4%	95.7%	95.1%	1.01×	1.05
Bournemouth to lead by 1 at any time	64.5%	61.5%	62.0%	0.99×	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	55.0%	50.9%	50.5%	1.01×	1.97
Brighton and Hove Albion to lead by 1 at any time	51.1%	50.8%	51.5%	0.99×	1.97
Bournemouth to lead by 2 at any time	34.1%	29.9%	29.8%	1.00×	3.35
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	22.2%	19.6%	21.2%	0.93×	5.09
Brighton and Hove Albion to lead by 2 at any time	21.4%	19.6%	21.0%	0.93×	5.10
Bournemouth to lead by 3 at any time	14.8%	10.5%	13.2%	0.80×	9.52
Brighton and Hove Albion to lead by 3 at any time	7.4%	6.7%	8.1%	0.83×	14.91

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth most corners	55.7%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
Brighton and Hove Albion most corners	34.2%	34.3%	—	—	2.91
Corners level	10.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	84.4%	83.4%	88.5%	0.94×	1.20
2-6 goals	79.2%	78.7%	79.0%	1.00×	1.27
1-4 goals	72.3%	72.4%	77.9%	0.93×	1.38
2-5 goals	72.4%	72.4%	75.1%	0.96×	1.38
2-4 goals	60.3%	63.3%	64.6%	0.98×	1.58
3-6 goals	59.3%	59.1%	55.7%	1.06×	1.69
1-3 goals	54.0%	53.2%	59.7%	0.89×	1.88
3-5 goals	52.5%	53.2%	51.9%	1.03×	1.88
2-3 goals	42.0%	43.6%	46.3%	0.94×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.4%	43.6%	41.3%	1.06×	2.30
4-6 goals	37.2%	39.2%	32.7%	1.20×	2.55
1-2 goals	31.9%	35.2%	36.7%	0.96×	2.84
4-5 goals	30.5%	35.2%	28.9%	1.22×	2.84
5-6 goals	18.9%	18.8%	14.5%	1.30×	5.31
7+ goals	5.2%	8.9%	2.8%	3.16×	11.28

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth never behind	45.3%	56.5%	48.5%	1.17×	1.77
Brighton and Hove Albion never behind	31.9%	36.2%	38.0%	0.95×	2.76

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	49.1%	1.04×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	50.9%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	51.5%	51.5%	53.5%	0.96×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	48.5%	48.5%	46.5%	1.04×	2.06

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.1%	51.9%	51.9%	1.00×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.9%	48.1%	48.1%	1.00×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.4%	95.4%	95.1%	1.00×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	88.1%	87.6%	93.3%	0.94×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	84.4%	82.3%	81.7%	1.01×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	75.9%	77.3%	82.8%	0.93×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	64.5%	61.8%	58.5%	1.06×	1.62
Under 3.5 goals	57.6%	58.6%	64.6%	0.91×	1.71
Over 3.5 goals	42.4%	41.4%	35.4%	1.17×	2.42
Under 2.5 goals	35.5%	38.2%	41.6%	0.92×	2.62
Over 4.5 goals	24.1%	22.7%	17.2%	1.32×	4.40
Under 1.5 goals	15.6%	17.7%	18.3%	0.97×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	11.9%	12.4%	6.7%	1.86×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	3.6%	4.6%	4.9%	0.92×	21.86

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	94.4%	92.4%	97.1%	0.95×	1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	86.4%	86.7%	92.5%	0.94×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	80.5%	81.1%	76.2%	1.06×	1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	70.5%	72.4%	78.9%	0.92×	1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	54.4%	51.9%	46.0%	1.13×	1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	45.6%	48.1%	54.0%	0.89×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	29.5%	27.6%	21.1%	1.31×	3.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	19.5%	18.9%	23.8%	0.79×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	13.6%	13.3%	7.5%	1.78×	7.53
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	5.6%	7.6%	2.9%	2.60×	13.17

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half	82.5%	85.8%	71.9%	1.19×	1.17
Under 2.5 in 1st half	74.6%	71.7%	87.2%	0.82×	1.40
Over 1.5 in 1st half	52.0%	54.6%	35.8%	1.53×	1.83
Under 1.5 in 1st half	48.0%	45.4%	64.2%	0.71×	2.20
Over 2.5 in 1st half	25.4%	28.3%	12.8%	2.22×	3.53
Under 0.5 in 1st half	17.5%	14.2%	28.1%	0.51×	7.03

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	79.4%	79.2%	84.7%	0.94×	1.26
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	78.9%	79.2%	75.8%	1.05×	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	53.2%	53.0%	45.7%	1.16×	1.89
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	46.8%	47.0%	54.3%	0.86×	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	21.1%	20.8%	24.2%	0.86×	4.80
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	20.6%	20.8%	15.3%	1.36×	4.80

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion not to score in both halves	73.6%	73.9%	76.9%	0.96×	1.35
Bournemouth not to score in both halves	65.1%	69.8%	68.6%	1.02×	1.43
Bournemouth to score in both halves	34.9%	30.2%	31.4%	0.96×	3.31
Brighton and Hove Albion to score in both halves	26.4%	26.1%	23.1%	1.13×	3.84

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	64.9%	60.4%	58.0%	1.04×	1.66
Only Bournemouth scores	19.4%	16.0%	20.1%	0.80×	6.24
Only Brighton and Hove Albion scores	12.1%	11.0%	17.1%	0.65×	9.06
Neither team scores	3.6%	4.6%	4.9%	0.93×	21.70

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.1%	22.6%	23.1%	0.98×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	19.9%	17.5%	23.3%	0.75×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	18.3%	17.5%	18.3%	0.95×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	12.0%	12.1%	13.4%	0.90×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	12.2%	12.1%	10.6%	1.14×	8.25
6 or more goals	11.9%	12.1%	6.7%	1.82×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	3.6%	4.5%	4.9%	0.90×	22.38

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	30.5%	35.8%	36.2%	0.99×	2.80
2 goals in 1st half	26.6%	28.4%	23.1%	1.23×	3.52
3+ goals in 1st half	25.4%	28.4%	12.8%	2.22×	3.52
No goals in 1st half	17.5%	15.7%	28.1%	0.56×	6.39

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	46.8%	45.2%	54.3%	0.83×	2.21
1 goal in 2nd half	32.6%	33.9%	30.4%	1.11×	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	20.6%	22.9%	15.3%	1.49×	4.37

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion not to win both halves	92.8%	94.1%	91.3%	1.03×	1.06
Bournemouth not to win both halves	86.3%	87.9%	86.4%	1.02×	1.14
Bournemouth to win both halves	13.7%	12.1%	13.6%	0.89×	8.27
Brighton and Hove Albion to win both halves	7.2%	5.9%	8.7%	0.68×	17.00

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth to win either half	62.9%	65.1%	58.6%	1.11×	1.54
Brighton and Hove Albion to win neither half	51.2%	54.2%	51.7%	1.05×	1.85
Brighton and Hove Albion to win either half	48.8%	45.8%	48.3%	0.95×	2.18
Bournemouth to win neither half	37.1%	34.9%	41.4%	0.84×	2.87

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion not to win to nil	87.9%	88.1%	82.9%	1.06×	1.14
Bournemouth not to win to nil	80.6%	83.1%	79.9%	1.04×	1.20
Bournemouth to win to nil	19.4%	16.9%	20.1%	0.84×	5.91
Brighton and Hove Albion to win to nil	12.1%	11.9%	17.1%	0.70×	8.42

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	22.5%	24.1%	24.8%	0.97×	4.15
Bournemouth by 1	21.0%	24.1%	19.0%	1.27×	4.15
Brighton and Hove Albion by 1	16.6%	17.0%	16.7%	1.02×	5.87
Bournemouth by 2	14.1%	11.8%	13.2%	0.89×	8.50
Bournemouth by 3+	11.6%	11.8%	10.9%	1.08×	8.51
Brighton and Hove Albion by 2	8.9%	7.2%	9.2%	0.78×	13.90
Brighton and Hove Albion by 3+	5.2%	7.2%	6.5%	1.10×	13.92