Bournemouth v Brighton and Hove Albion — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 28 April 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 13
On target
6 – 1
Shots in box
12 – 9
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.92 – 0.18
Goals − xG
+0.41 – -1.36
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bournemouth win
52.6%
Draw
22.4%
Brighton and Hove Albion win
25.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bournemouth are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDDLDD last 10
scored 16
from 17.6 xG
conceded 11
from 16.1 xG
Brighton and Hove Albion have scored 19 from 19.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDWLWLLWLD last 10
scored 19
from 19.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.90–1.25 | 1-1 10% | 61% | 61% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bournemouth 2.59 xGBrighton and Hove Albion 1.36 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bournemouth attacking right
Brighton and Hove Albion attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Brighton and Hove Albion |
Igor Julio | 0.08 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 10' |
 Bournemouth |
Dominic Solanke | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 12' |
Bournemouth |
Enes Ünal | 0.15 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Lewis Cook |
| 12' |
Bournemouth |
Marcos Senesi | 0.72 | From Corner | — | Goal | Enes Ünal |
| 25' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Mark O’Mahony | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | João Pedro |
| 26' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Facundo Buonanotte | 0.75 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | João Pedro |
| 27' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
João Pedro | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Billy Gilmour |
| 31' |
Bournemouth |
Enes Ünal | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alex Scott |
| 33' |
Bournemouth |
Alex Scott | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 39' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Simon Adingra | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 45' |
Bournemouth |
Dominic Solanke | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lewis Cook |
| 46' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dominic Solanke |
| 50' |
Bournemouth |
Enes Ünal | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 51' |
Bournemouth |
Enes Ünal | 0.14 | Open Play | — | Goal | Dango Ouattara |
| 57' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Antoine Semenyo |
| 58' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
João Pedro | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Billy Gilmour |
| 59' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Valentín Barco | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | João Pedro |
| 60' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
João Pedro | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 67' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alex Scott |
| 68' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Facundo Buonanotte | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Julio Enciso |
| 69' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Julio Enciso | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 71' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Billy Gilmour | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | João Pedro |
| 71' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Julio Enciso | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Danny Welbeck |
| 72' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
João Pedro | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Valentín Barco |
| 75' |
Bournemouth |
Adam Smith | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ryan Christie |
| 75' |
Bournemouth |
Dominic Solanke | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dango Ouattara |
| 83' |
Bournemouth |
Dominic Solanke | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Antoine Semenyo |
| 86' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Ryan Christie |
Players
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcos Senesi DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.72 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Justin Kluivert ML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.61 | 0.00 | 0.83 |
| Dominic Solanke FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.35 | 0.97 |
| Antoine Semenyo MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| Adam Smith DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Mark Travers GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lloyd Kelly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Lewis Cook MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.41 |
| Dango Ouattara DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| Alex Scott MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.41 | 0.50 |
| Enes Ünal FW | 72 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0.68 | 0.72 | 0.83 |
| Ryan Christie Sub | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.34 |
| Max Aarons Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| James Hill Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dominic Sadi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Brighton and Hove Albion
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Facundo Buonanotte AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.79 | 0.00 | 0.79 |
| João Pedro AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.24 | 0.88 | 1.03 |
| Billy Gilmour DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.96 |
| Valentín Barco DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.23 |
| Lewis Dunk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Bart Verbruggen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Pascal Groß DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.27 |
| Igor Julio DC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Odeluga Offiah DR | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Simon Adingra AML | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Mark O’Mahony FW | 51 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Danny Welbeck Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Julio Enciso Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| Adam Webster Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joël Veltman Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlos Baleba Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |