Bournemouth v Burnley — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 20 December 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 4
On target
1 – 1
Shots in box
11 – 1
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.68 – 0.45
Goals − xG
-0.82 – +0.52
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bournemouth win
63.6%
Draw
19.6%
Burnley win
16.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bournemouth are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WDDLDDDLLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.2 xG
conceded 15
from 13.0 xG
Burnley are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDLLLLLDLD last 10
scored 6
from 10.4 xG
conceded 19
from 20.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.22–1.06 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.48–0.91 | 2-0 10% | 66% | 55% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bournemouth 1.82 xGBurnley 0.48 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bournemouth attacking right
Burnley attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Bournemouth |
David Brooks | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Antoine Semenyo |
| 9' |
Bournemouth |
David Brooks | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Evanilson |
| 12' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Justin Kluivert |
| 18' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Antoine Semenyo |
| 26' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Justin Kluivert |
| 34' |
Bournemouth |
Alejandro Jiménez | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | David Brooks |
| 50' |
Bournemouth |
David Brooks | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Alejandro Jiménez |
| 53' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 55' |
Bournemouth |
David Brooks | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Marcos Senesi |
| 56' |
Bournemouth |
David Brooks | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Evanilson |
| 60' |
Bournemouth |
David Brooks | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marcos Senesi |
| 66' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 70' |
Bournemouth |
Eli Junior Kroupi | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marcos Senesi |
| 75' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Eli Junior Kroupi |
| 85' |
 Burnley |
Lucas Pires | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Josh Cullen |
| 86' |
Burnley |
Josh Cullen | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 86' |
Burnley |
Lucas Pires | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 89' |
Burnley |
Armando Broja | 0.42 | From Corner | — | Goal | Marcus Edwards |
| 91' |
Bournemouth |
Marcos Senesi | 0.61 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Antoine Semenyo |
| 93' |
Bournemouth |
Amine Adli | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Lewis Cook |
Players
Burnley
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Pires DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Josh Cullen MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Joe Worrall DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Josh Laurent DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Martin Dubravka GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hjalmar Ekdal DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Chimuanya Ugochukwu MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kyle Walker MR | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jaidon Anthony ML | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jacob Bruun Larsen FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Zian Flemming FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Armando Broja Sub | 23 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Loum Tchaouna Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oliver Sonne Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marcus Edwards Sub | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.00 |
| Mike Trésor Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcos Senesi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.61 | 0.62 | 0.85 |
| Antoine Semenyo AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.70 | 0.41 |
| Marcus Tavernier DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.27 |
| Alejandro Jiménez DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.22 |
| Lewis Cook DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.12 |
| Bafode Diakite DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Adrien Truffert DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Djordje Petrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| David Brooks AMR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0.82 | 0.03 | 0.82 |
| Justin Kluivert AMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.23 |
| Evanilson FW | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.22 |
| Enes Ünal Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Eli Junior Kroupi Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| Ryan Christie Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Amine Adli Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Alex Scott Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |