Bournemouth v Chelsea — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 6 December 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 11
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
8 – 6
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.08 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-1.48 – -0.67
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bournemouth win
31.1%
Draw
25.0%
Chelsea win
43.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bournemouth are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDDLDD last 10
scored 16
from 17.6 xG
conceded 11
from 16.1 xG
Chelsea are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLDWLWWL last 10
scored 13
from 14.4 xG
conceded 21
from 18.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.28–1.57 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.54–1.52 | 1-1 11% | 59% | 61% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bournemouth 1.48 xGChelsea 0.67 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bournemouth attacking right
Chelsea attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marcos Senesi |
| 13' |
Bournemouth |
Alejandro Jiménez | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Antoine Semenyo |
| 14' |
Bournemouth |
Alejandro Jiménez | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 20' |
 Chelsea |
Marc Cucurella | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Pedro Neto |
| 23' |
Chelsea |
Liam Delap | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pedro Neto |
| 34' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Justin Kluivert |
| 34' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.88 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 40' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 41' |
Chelsea |
Pedro Neto | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 43' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marcos Senesi |
| 46' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Antoine Semenyo |
| 48' |
Bournemouth |
Alex Scott | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 48' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Adrien Truffert |
| 48' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Chelsea |
Pedro Neto | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Cole Palmer |
| 50' |
Chelsea |
Alejandro Garnacho | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Pedro Neto |
| 50' |
Chelsea |
Enzo Fernández | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marc Guiu |
| 51' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pedro Neto |
| 56' |
Bournemouth |
Adrien Truffert | 0.08 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Antoine Semenyo |
| 60' |
Chelsea |
Marc Guiu | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alejandro Garnacho |
| 65' |
Chelsea |
Marc Guiu | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 70' |
Chelsea |
Alejandro Garnacho | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marc Cucurella |
| 79' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Adrien Truffert |
| 88' |
Chelsea |
Enzo Fernández | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marc Guiu |
Players
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evanilson FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.88 | 0.00 | 0.96 |
| Antoine Semenyo AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0.24 | 0.21 | 0.43 |
| Marcus Tavernier DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Adrien Truffert DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 0.23 |
| Alex Scott DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Adam Smith DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Djordje Petrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bafode Diakite DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Alejandro Jiménez AMR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Justin Kluivert AMC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.27 |
| Marcos Senesi DC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| James Hill Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| David Brooks Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Amine Adli Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Enes Ünal Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Chelsea
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enzo Fernández DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Pedro Neto AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.05 | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| Marc Cucurella DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.14 |
| Trevoh Chalobah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Robert Sánchez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Reece James DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Malo Gusto DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Wesley Fofana DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Alejandro Garnacho AML | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.29 |
| Cole Palmer AMC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.32 |
| Marc Guiu Sub | 59 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.16 | 0.34 |
| Liam Delap FW | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| João Pedro Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Estêvão Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |