Bournemouth v Chelsea — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 14 September 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 10
On target
7 – 3
Shots in box
10 – 6
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.83 – 0.07
Goals − xG
-1.54 – +0.07
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bournemouth win
41.7%
Draw
22.3%
Chelsea win
36.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bournemouth are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDDLDD last 10
scored 16
from 17.6 xG
conceded 11
from 16.1 xG
Chelsea are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLDWLWWL last 10
scored 13
from 14.4 xG
conceded 21
from 18.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.81–1.67 | 1-1 9% | 68% | 68% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bournemouth 1.54 xGChelsea 0.93 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bournemouth attacking right
Chelsea attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Lewis Cook |
| 5' |
 Chelsea |
Noni Madueke | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 7' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 12' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ryan Christie |
| 15' |
Chelsea |
Renato Veiga | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pedro Neto |
| 16' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Justin Kluivert |
| 16' |
Chelsea |
Noni Madueke | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Levi Colwill |
| 19' |
Chelsea |
Noni Madueke | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Wesley Fofana |
| 22' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Evanilson |
| 23' |
Bournemouth |
Lewis Cook | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marcos Senesi |
| 33' |
Chelsea |
Nicolas Jackson | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Noni Madueke |
| 37' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.76 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 38' |
Bournemouth |
Milos Kerkez | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 43' |
Bournemouth |
Lewis Cook | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
Bournemouth |
Lewis Cook | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ryan Christie |
| 49' |
Bournemouth |
Milos Kerkez | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marcos Senesi |
| 55' |
Chelsea |
Nicolas Jackson | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jadon Sancho |
| 57' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 58' |
Bournemouth |
Ryan Christie | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 63' |
Chelsea |
Moisés Caicedo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Cole Palmer |
| 65' |
Chelsea |
Nicolas Jackson | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 77' |
Chelsea |
Renato Veiga | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Tosin Adarabioyo |
| 83' |
Bournemouth |
Luis Sinisterra | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Illia Zabarnyi |
| 85' |
Chelsea |
Christopher Nkunku | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jadon Sancho |
| 88' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Enes Ünal |
| 94' |
Bournemouth |
Enes Ünal | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Luis Sinisterra |
| 94' |
Bournemouth |
Enes Ünal | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Luis Sinisterra |
Players
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Semenyo AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Lewis Cook DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.51 |
| Milos Kerkez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Marcos Senesi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.32 |
| Mark Travers GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Illia Zabarnyi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| Marcus Tavernier AML | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.31 |
| Justin Kluivert AMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.07 | 0.36 |
| Adam Smith DR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Evanilson FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.86 | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| Ryan Christie DMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.32 |
| Luis Sinisterra Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| Alex Scott Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Julián Araujo Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Philip Billing Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Enes Ünal Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.11 |
Chelsea
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renato Veiga DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Moisés Caicedo DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Marc Cucurella DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Robert Sánchez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Levi Colwill DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.54 |
| Wesley Fofana DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.55 |
| Cole Palmer AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Nicolas Jackson FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Noni Madueke AMR | 63 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0.19 |
| Axel Disasi DR | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pedro Neto AML | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| Jadon Sancho Sub | 43 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.52 | 0.52 |
| Tosin Adarabioyo Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.49 |
| João Félix Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Christopher Nkunku Sub | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 |