Bournemouth v Crystal Palace — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 3 May 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 8
On target
5 – 1
Shots in box
10 – 6
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
1.00 – 0.08
Goals − xG
+0.70 – -0.68
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bournemouth win
44.1%
Draw
29.1%
Crystal Palace win
26.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bournemouth are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDDLDD last 10
scored 16
from 17.6 xG
conceded 11
from 16.1 xG
Crystal Palace are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLDLLLW last 10
scored 10
from 15.7 xG
conceded 23
from 20.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.51–1.13 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.96–1.47 | 1-1 9% | 67% | 66% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bournemouth 2.30 xGCrystal Palace 0.68 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bournemouth attacking right
Crystal Palace attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Bournemouth |
Eli Junior Kroupi | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tyler Adams |
| 8' |
Bournemouth |
Rayan | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 9' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Alex Scott |
| 9' |
 Crystal Palace |
Jefferson Lerma | 0.00 | From Corner | — | Own Goal | — |
| 12' |
Bournemouth |
Eli Junior Kroupi | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 13' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alex Scott |
| 18' |
Bournemouth |
Rayan | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Alejandro Jiménez |
| 26' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.16 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Tyler Adams |
| 31' |
Bournemouth |
Eli Junior Kroupi | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 38' |
Bournemouth |
Alex Scott | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 42' |
Bournemouth |
Rayan | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | James Hill |
| 45' |
Crystal Palace |
Jørgen Strand Larsen | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Tyrick Mitchell |
| 46' |
Bournemouth |
Rayan | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Adrien Truffert |
| 54' |
Crystal Palace |
Jørgen Strand Larsen | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ismaila Sarr |
| 58' |
Bournemouth |
Eli Junior Kroupi | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Evanilson |
| 63' |
Crystal Palace |
Brennan Johnson | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jørgen Strand Larsen |
| 76' |
Bournemouth |
Rayan | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | David Brooks |
| 78' |
Bournemouth |
David Brooks | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marcos Senesi |
| 82' |
Crystal Palace |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.08 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jefferson Lerma |
| 83' |
Crystal Palace |
Brennan Johnson | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jean-Philippe Mateta |
| 88' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Adam Wharton |
| 90' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Bournemouth |
Alejandro Jiménez | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 94' |
Bournemouth |
Enes Ünal | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayan AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.72 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Marcus Tavernier AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Alejandro Jiménez DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.22 |
| Alex Scott DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| Adrien Truffert DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Marcos Senesi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| James Hill DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.61 |
| Djordje Petrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Evanilson FW | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.14 | 0.28 |
| Eli Junior Kroupi AMC | 74 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.01 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Tyler Adams DMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| Ryan Christie Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| David Brooks Sub | 16 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.49 | 0.54 |
| Enes Ünal Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ben Doak Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Amine Adli Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Crystal Palace
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brennan Johnson FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Maxence Lacroix DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Justin Devenny DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Jefferson Lerma MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.36 |
| Dean Henderson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jaydee Canvot DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Chadi Riad DC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.09 | 0.26 |
| Daniel Muñoz DMR | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daichi Kamada MC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yeremi Pino FWL | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ismaila Sarr Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.08 | 0.58 |
| Tyrick Mitchell Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.36 |
| Adam Wharton Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.30 |
| Chris Richards Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |