Bournemouth v Everton — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Tuesday 2 December 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
5 – 13
On target
2 – 3
Shots in box
5 – 9
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.43 – 0.13
Goals − xG
-0.64 – -0.20
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bournemouth win
49.7%
Draw
25.8%
Everton win
24.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bournemouth are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.4 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DDLDDDLLWW last 10
scored 14
from 19.8 xG
conceded 15
from 12.6 xG
Everton are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLWDDDWDLL last 10
scored 9
from 14.0 xG
conceded 13
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.54–1.00 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.71–1.17 | 1-1 11% | 55% | 56% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bournemouth 0.64 xGEverton 1.20 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bournemouth attacking right
Everton attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Everton |
Jack Grealish | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 6' |
Everton |
Thierno Barry | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jake O'Brien |
| 12' |
Everton |
Jake O'Brien | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Thierno Barry |
| 18' |
Everton |
Tim Iroegbunam | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | James Garner |
| 22' |
 Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.07 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 42' |
Everton |
Thierno Barry | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | — |
| 44' |
Everton |
James Garner | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Everton |
Carlos Alcaraz | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jake O'Brien |
| 55' |
Everton |
Thierno Barry | 0.44 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Carlos Alcaraz |
| 61' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Evanilson |
| 61' |
Everton |
Carlos Alcaraz | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Thierno Barry |
| 64' |
Bournemouth |
Veljko Milosavljevic | 0.36 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Justin Kluivert |
| 65' |
Everton |
Thierno Barry | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | James Garner |
| 68' |
Everton |
Carlos Alcaraz | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | James Tarkowski |
| 77' |
Everton |
Jack Grealish | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Carlos Alcaraz |
| 82' |
Everton |
Iliman Ndiaye | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jack Grealish |
| 83' |
Bournemouth |
Alejandro Jiménez | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Evanilson |
| 93' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Veljko Milosavljevic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Antoine Semenyo AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Alejandro Jiménez DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Adrien Truffert DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Tyler Adams DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Djordje Petrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Bafode Diakite DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Alex Scott DMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Justin Kluivert AMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 0.10 |
| Eli Junior Kroupi FW | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Amine Adli AMR | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marcus Tavernier Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Evanilson Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| Julio Soler Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Enes Ünal Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Everton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iliman Ndiaye AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Jake O'Brien DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 0.29 |
| Jack Grealish AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.26 |
| Tim Iroegbunam DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| James Garner DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| Jordan Pickford GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| James Tarkowski DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| Vitalii Mykolenko DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Thierno Barry FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.69 | 0.17 | 0.78 |
| Carlos Alcaraz AMC | 83 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| Beto Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dwight McNeil Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |