Bournemouth v Ipswich — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 2 April 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
24 – 10
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
11 – 7
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.78 – 0.06
Goals − xG
-1.05 – +0.59
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bournemouth win
63.7%
Draw
21.6%
Ipswich win
14.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bournemouth are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WDDLDDDLLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.2 xG
conceded 15
from 13.0 xG
Ipswich have scored 13 from 12.9 expected and conceded 21 from 20.6 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLWLLWLWLD last 10
scored 13
from 12.9 xG
conceded 21
from 20.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.10–0.92 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.76–0.98 | 2-0 9% | 72% | 59% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bournemouth 2.05 xGIpswich 1.41 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bournemouth attacking right
Ipswich attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12' |
 Bournemouth |
Alex Scott | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Adam Smith |
| 12' |
Bournemouth |
Milos Kerkez | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 14' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 14' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 14' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Ryan Christie |
| 19' |
 Ipswich |
Ben Johnson | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sam Morsy |
| 22' |
Bournemouth |
Dango Ouattara | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Milos Kerkez |
| 23' |
Ipswich |
Julio Enciso | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Cameron Burgess |
| 25' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dango Ouattara |
| 28' |
Ipswich |
Julio Enciso | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jens Cajuste |
| 31' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ryan Christie |
| 32' |
Bournemouth |
Alex Scott | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ryan Christie |
| 32' |
Bournemouth |
Alex Scott | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Antoine Semenyo |
| 33' |
Ipswich |
Nathan Broadhead | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Julio Enciso |
| 37' |
Ipswich |
Ben Johnson | 0.32 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Julio Enciso |
| 41' |
Bournemouth |
Lewis Cook | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Antoine Semenyo |
| 42' |
Ipswich |
Jens Cajuste | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nathan Broadhead |
| 45' |
Bournemouth |
Alex Scott | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Antoine Semenyo |
| 48' |
Bournemouth |
Ryan Christie | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lewis Cook |
| 55' |
Bournemouth |
Dango Ouattara | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 55' |
Bournemouth |
Dango Ouattara | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 58' |
Bournemouth |
Dango Ouattara | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lewis Cook |
| 59' |
Ipswich |
Liam Delap | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Conor Townsend |
| 63' |
Bournemouth |
David Brooks | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 66' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.61 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 66' |
Bournemouth |
Lewis Cook | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 66' |
Ipswich |
Julio Enciso | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 71' |
Ipswich |
Dara O'Shea | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Ben Johnson |
| 77' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 80' |
Ipswich |
Jack Taylor | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jack Clarke |
| 85' |
Bournemouth |
Dango Ouattara | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tyler Adams |
| 87' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 89' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Tyler Adams |
| 97' |
Bournemouth |
Dango Ouattara | 0.59 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Lewis Cook |
Players
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dango Ouattara AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0.77 | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| Evanilson FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.69 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Antoine Semenyo AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| Lewis Cook DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.65 | 0.27 |
| Milos Kerkez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.08 |
| Dean Huijsen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Kepa GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Illia Zabarnyi DC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Alex Scott AMC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Ryan Christie DMC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.15 | 0.33 |
| Adam Smith DR | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| Tyler Adams Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| David Brooks Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Marcos Senesi Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Daniel Jebbison Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Ipswich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Johnson AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.05 | 0.34 |
| Jens Cajuste DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.99 |
| Dara O'Shea DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Conor Townsend DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 0.67 |
| Cameron Burgess DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.52 |
| Alex Palmer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
| Axel Tuanzebe DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sam Morsy DMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.50 |
| Julio Enciso AML | 74 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.77 | 0.85 |
| Nathan Broadhead AMC | 73 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.10 | 0.95 |
| Liam Delap FW | 73 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 1.12 |
| Jack Taylor Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| George Hirst Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jack Clarke Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Kalvin Phillips Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jaden Philogene-Bidace Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |