Bournemouth v Leeds United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 22 April 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 10
On target
7 – 3
Shots in box
12 – 10
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.53 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+0.09 – +0.78
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bournemouth win
42.8%
Draw
28.6%
Leeds United win
28.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bournemouth are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDDLDD last 10
scored 16
from 17.6 xG
conceded 11
from 16.1 xG
Leeds United are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWDWLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 18.3 xG
conceded 10
from 15.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.54–1.23 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.78–1.44 | 1-1 10% | 62% | 63% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bournemouth 1.91 xGLeeds United 1.22 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bournemouth attacking right
Leeds United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9' |
 Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ryan Christie |
| 15' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | David Brooks |
| 31' |
Bournemouth |
Adrien Truffert | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 33' |
Bournemouth |
David Brooks | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 36' |
 Leeds United |
Brenden Aaronson | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ao Tanaka |
| 42' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Eli Junior Kroupi |
| 42' |
Bournemouth |
Ryan Christie | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Eli Junior Kroupi |
| 45' |
Leeds United |
Noah Okafor | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Bournemouth |
Alex Scott | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' |
Bournemouth |
David Brooks | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 53' |
Bournemouth |
Ryan Christie | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Evanilson |
| 56' |
Bournemouth |
Ryan Christie | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | James Hill |
| 59' |
Bournemouth |
Eli Junior Kroupi | 0.52 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Marcos Senesi |
| 61' |
Leeds United |
Noah Okafor | 0.23 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 65' |
Leeds United |
Lukas Nmecha | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gabriel Gudmundsson |
| 66' |
Leeds United |
Lukas Nmecha | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Brenden Aaronson |
| 67' |
Bournemouth |
James Hill | 0.00 | Open Play | Right Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 67' |
Leeds United |
Lukas Nmecha | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Brenden Aaronson |
| 67' |
Leeds United |
Wilfried Gnonto | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lukas Nmecha |
| 74' |
Bournemouth |
Rayan | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 75' |
Bournemouth |
James Hill | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Alex Scott |
| 76' |
Bournemouth |
Alex Scott | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Amine Adli |
| 84' |
Bournemouth |
Amine Adli | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Evanilson |
| 84' |
Leeds United |
Joe Rodon | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Ethan Ampadu |
| 85' |
Bournemouth |
Rayan | 0.35 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Tyler Adams |
| 87' |
Bournemouth |
Marcos Senesi | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Alex Scott |
| 92' |
Leeds United |
Lukas Nmecha | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Wilfried Gnonto |
| 96' |
Leeds United |
Sean Longstaff | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evanilson FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| Marcus Tavernier AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| Marcos Senesi DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.52 | 0.57 |
| James Hill DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| Alex Scott DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| Adrien Truffert DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Djordje Petrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alejandro Jiménez DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Eli Junior Kroupi AMC | 74 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.52 | 0.16 | 1.05 |
| Ryan Christie DMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.08 | 0.57 |
| David Brooks AMR | 68 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.04 | 0.38 |
| Rayan Sub | 22 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Amine Adli Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| Tyler Adams Sub | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 0.00 |
| Alex Tóth Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Leeds United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal Struijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Karl Darlow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| James Justin DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Gabriel Gudmundsson DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Ethan Ampadu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.28 |
| Ao Tanaka MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Brenden Aaronson AMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.16 | 0.37 |
| Noah Okafor AMC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Jaka Bijol DC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Jayden Bogle DMR | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joe Rodon Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Lukas Nmecha Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.68 | 0.08 | 0.76 |
| Wilfried Gnonto Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.46 | 0.61 |
| Sean Longstaff Sub | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Joël Piroe Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |