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Bournemouth v Luton — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 13 March 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG

4–3
2.84 – 2.79 xG
Shots
24 – 8
On target
9 – 4
Shots in box
18 – 8
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.35
Set-piece xG
1.20 – 0.96
Goals − xG
+1.13 – +0.21
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.81.62.43.20'15'30'45'60'75'90'Tahith Chong 8' — goalChiedozie Ogbene 30' — goalRoss Barkley 45' — goalDominic Solanke 49' — goalIllia Zabarnyi 61' — goalAntoine Semenyo 63' — goalAntoine Semenyo 82' — goal
Bournemouth 2.87 xGLuton 2.79 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Dominic Solanke 3' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Ryan Christie 8' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Tahith Chong 8' — Goal (0.60 xG, Open Play)Carlton Morris 12' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Dango Ouattara 15' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Luis Sinisterra 15' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Luis Sinisterra 23' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Ryan Christie 26' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Chiedozie Ogbene 30' — Goal (0.66 xG, Open Play)Luis Sinisterra 33' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Antoine Semenyo 37' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Luis Sinisterra 37' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Lewis Cook 38' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Antoine Semenyo 39' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Ross Barkley 45' — Goal (0.49 xG, Open Play)Dominic Solanke 49' — Goal (0.44 xG, From Corner)Marcus Tavernier 49' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Antoine Semenyo 51' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Carlton Morris 53' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Dominic Solanke 60' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Enes Ünal 60' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Illia Zabarnyi 61' — Goal (0.61 xG, From Corner)Antoine Semenyo 63' — Goal (0.05 xG, Open Play)Carlton Morris 70' — Missed Shot (0.34 xG, Set Piece)Ross Barkley 70' — Missed Shot (0.53 xG, Set Piece)Ryan Christie 75' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Enes Ünal 78' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Marcus Tavernier 79' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Antoine Semenyo 82' — Goal (0.31 xG, Open Play)Reece Burke 87' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Set Piece)Enes Ünal 91' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Enes Ünal 97' — Saved Shot (0.50 xG, Open Play)
Bournemouth attacking right Luton attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
3' Bournemouth Dominic Solanke 0.05 Open Play Missed Shot Antoine Semenyo
8' Bournemouth Ryan Christie 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
8' Luton Tahith Chong 0.60 Open Play Goal Jordan Clark
12' Luton Carlton Morris 0.08 Open Play Blocked Shot Issa Kabore
15' Bournemouth Dango Ouattara 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Ryan Christie
15' Bournemouth Luis Sinisterra 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Dominic Solanke
23' Bournemouth Luis Sinisterra 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Alex Scott
26' Bournemouth Ryan Christie 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Adam Smith
30' Luton Chiedozie Ogbene 0.66 Open Play Right Foot Goal Alfie Doughty
33' Bournemouth Luis Sinisterra 0.05 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Lewis Cook
37' Bournemouth Antoine Semenyo 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Chris Mepham
37' Bournemouth Luis Sinisterra 0.04 Open Play Blocked Shot Lewis Cook
38' Bournemouth Lewis Cook 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot Alex Scott
39' Bournemouth Antoine Semenyo 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Dominic Solanke
45' Luton Ross Barkley 0.49 Open Play Right Foot Goal Issa Kabore
49' Bournemouth Dominic Solanke 0.44 From Corner Right Foot Goal Chris Mepham
49' Bournemouth Marcus Tavernier 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot Ryan Christie
51' Bournemouth Antoine Semenyo 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Marcus Tavernier
53' Luton Carlton Morris 0.04 From Corner Saved Shot Alfie Doughty
60' Bournemouth Dominic Solanke 0.04 Open Play Missed Shot Adam Smith
60' Bournemouth Enes Ünal 0.05 From Corner Blocked Shot Lewis Cook
61' Bournemouth Illia Zabarnyi 0.61 From Corner Goal
63' Bournemouth Antoine Semenyo 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Goal Ryan Christie
70' Luton Carlton Morris 0.34 Set Piece Missed Shot Alfie Doughty
70' Luton Ross Barkley 0.53 Set Piece Left Foot Missed Shot Carlton Morris
75' Bournemouth Ryan Christie 0.01 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot Antoine Semenyo
78' Bournemouth Enes Ünal 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Dominic Solanke
79' Bournemouth Marcus Tavernier 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Dominic Solanke
82' Bournemouth Antoine Semenyo 0.31 Open Play Right Foot Goal Enes Ünal
87' Luton Reece Burke 0.06 Set Piece Missed Shot Ross Barkley
91' Bournemouth Enes Ünal 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Antoine Semenyo
97' Bournemouth Enes Ünal 0.50 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Philip Billing

Players

Bournemouth

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Illia Zabarnyi DC 90 1 0 1 0 0.61 0.00 0.49
Antoine Semenyo AMR 90 2 0 5 3 0.56 0.12 0.85
Dominic Solanke FW 90 1 0 3 4 0.53 0.24 0.48
Ryan Christie DMC 90 0 1 3 3 0.15 0.12 0.54
Dango Ouattara DL 90 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.50
Lewis Cook DMC 90 0 0 1 3 0.02 0.13 0.54
Chris Mepham DC 90 0 1 0 2 0.00 0.46 0.42
Neto GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.55
Adam Smith DR 74 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.10 0.27
Luis Sinisterra AML 49 0 0 4 0 0.23 0.00 0.23
Alex Scott AMC 49 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.10 0.14
Enes Ünal Sub 41 0 1 4 1 0.68 0.31 0.94
Marcus Tavernier Sub 41 0 0 2 1 0.05 0.11 0.64
Tyler Adams Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.40
Philip Billing Sub 1 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.50 0.50
James Hill Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Luton

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Ross Barkley MC 90 1 0 2 1 1.02 0.06 1.23
Chiedozie Ogbene AMC 90 1 0 1 0 0.66 0.00 1.34
Carlton Morris FW 90 0 0 3 1 0.46 0.53 1.17
Reece Burke DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.74
Teden Mengi DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 1.26
Jordan Clark MC 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.60 0.69
Issa Kabore DMR 90 0 1 0 2 0.00 0.57 1.83
Alfie Doughty DML 90 0 1 0 3 0.00 1.04 1.26
Thomas Kaminski GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.66
Tahith Chong AMC 76 1 0 1 0 0.60 0.00 1.34
Daiki Hashioka DC 71 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 1.26
Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu Sub 19 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cauley Woodrow Sub 14 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Luke Berry Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andros Townsend Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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