Bournemouth v Manchester United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 13 April 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
20 – 8
On target
5 – 2
Shots in box
12 – 5
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.19
Set-piece xG
0.56 – 0.76
Goals − xG
-0.62 – +0.48
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bournemouth win
56.2%
Draw
20.6%
Manchester United win
23.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bournemouth are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDDLDD last 10
scored 16
from 17.6 xG
conceded 11
from 16.1 xG
Manchester United have scored 20 from 20.9 expected and conceded 13 from 14.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWWWDWWLWD last 10
scored 20
from 20.9 xG
conceded 13
from 14.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 2.16–1.33 | 2-1 9% | 68% | 65% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bournemouth 2.62 xGManchester United 1.52 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bournemouth attacking right
Manchester United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Bournemouth |
Dominic Solanke | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Adam Smith |
| 2' |
Bournemouth |
Milos Kerkez | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 15' |
Bournemouth |
Dominic Solanke | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Marcos Senesi |
| 17' |
 Manchester United |
Marcus Rashford | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Casemiro |
| 18' |
Bournemouth |
Milos Kerkez | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ryan Christie |
| 20' |
Bournemouth |
Luis Sinisterra | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ryan Christie |
| 27' |
Bournemouth |
Ryan Christie | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Luis Sinisterra |
| 28' |
Manchester United |
Alejandro Garnacho | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Diogo Dalot |
| 29' |
Bournemouth |
Ryan Christie | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Luis Sinisterra |
| 30' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.52 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 33' |
Bournemouth |
Dango Ouattara | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dominic Solanke |
| 35' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Marcos Senesi |
| 42' |
Bournemouth |
Milos Kerkez | 0.35 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Adam Smith |
| 42' |
Bournemouth |
Milos Kerkez | 0.68 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.33 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Milos Kerkez |
| 49' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.05 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lewis Cook |
| 49' |
Manchester United |
Harry Maguire | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marcus Rashford |
| 52' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Marcus Rashford |
| 55' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lloyd Kelly |
| 58' |
Bournemouth |
Dominic Solanke | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lloyd Kelly |
| 62' |
Manchester United |
Kobbie Mainoo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Aaron Wan-Bissaka |
| 64' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 66' |
Bournemouth |
Dominic Solanke | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dango Ouattara |
| 73' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dominic Solanke |
| 84' |
Bournemouth |
Max Aarons | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lewis Cook |
| 87' |
Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 93' |
Bournemouth |
Romain Faivre | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lewis Cook |
| 97' |
Bournemouth |
Enes Ünal | 0.12 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milos Kerkez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1.12 | 0.33 | 1.49 |
| Dominic Solanke FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.17 | 0.52 |
| Ryan Christie DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 0.76 |
| Neto GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Lewis Cook DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.38 |
| Marcos Senesi DC | 90 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.89 |
| Illia Zabarnyi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Justin Kluivert AMC | 85 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.79 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Dango Ouattara AMR | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 0.81 |
| Adam Smith DR | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 0.72 |
| Lloyd Kelly Sub | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| Luis Sinisterra AML | 38 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.27 |
| Romain Faivre Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Max Aarons Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Enes Ünal Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Manchester United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Fernandes AMC | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.30 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Marcus Rashford AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.17 |
| Harry Maguire DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Rasmus Højlund FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Willy Kambwala DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Diogo Dalot DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Casemiro DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.18 |
| André Onana GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kobbie Mainoo DMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Alejandro Garnacho AMR | 55 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Amad Diallo Traore Sub | 35 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Mason Mount Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |