Bournemouth v Newcastle United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 25 August 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 14
On target
4 – 5
Shots in box
11 – 12
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.21 – 0.64
Goals − xG
-1.54 – -0.89
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bournemouth win
42.2%
Draw
21.2%
Newcastle United win
36.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bournemouth are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDDLDD last 10
scored 16
from 17.6 xG
conceded 11
from 16.1 xG
Newcastle United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLWDWLDWD last 10
scored 15
from 14.3 xG
conceded 14
from 19.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.97–1.83 | 1-1 8% | 73% | 72% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bournemouth 2.54 xGNewcastle United 1.89 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bournemouth attacking right
Newcastle United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Newcastle United |
Anthony Gordon | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sean Longstaff |
| 10' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bruno Guimarães |
| 11' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Emil Krafth |
| 18' |
 Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ryan Christie |
| 26' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 32' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 33' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 36' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.84 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Antoine Semenyo |
| 47' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jacob Murphy |
| 48' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Anthony Gordon |
| 48' |
Newcastle United |
Dan Burn | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Anthony Gordon |
| 49' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Justin Kluivert |
| 51' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ryan Christie |
| 52' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ryan Christie |
| 56' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 58' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Justin Kluivert |
| 63' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.82 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Antoine Semenyo |
| 66' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alexander Isak |
| 69' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Lewis Hall |
| 69' |
Newcastle United |
Joelinton | 0.32 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Harvey Barnes |
| 72' |
Newcastle United |
Joe Willock | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bruno Guimarães |
| 75' |
Newcastle United |
Anthony Gordon | 0.51 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Harvey Barnes |
| 77' |
Bournemouth |
Alex Scott | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 78' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 78' |
Bournemouth |
Dango Ouattara | 0.14 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lewis Cook |
| 81' |
Newcastle United |
Dan Burn | 0.35 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Anthony Gordon |
| 82' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Anthony Gordon |
| 90' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Joelinton |
| 91' |
Bournemouth |
Luis Sinisterra | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Antoine Semenyo |
| 97' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Luis Sinisterra |
Players
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Semenyo AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 0.40 | 1.74 | 2.15 |
| Lewis Cook DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| Milos Kerkez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Marcos Senesi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.87 |
| Neto GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Illia Zabarnyi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Julián Araujo DR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.82 |
| Marcus Tavernier AML | 88 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.89 | 0.17 | 1.90 |
| Evanilson FW | 75 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.99 | 0.00 | 0.99 |
| Justin Kluivert AMC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| Ryan Christie DMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.42 |
| Alex Scott Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Dango Ouattara Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Luis Sinisterra Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| Daniel Jebbison Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Smith Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Newcastle United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Gordon FWL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.53 | 0.56 | 0.51 |
| Dan Burn DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Joelinton MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.04 | 1.03 |
| Alexander Isak FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.12 | 0.29 |
| Bruno Guimarães MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.14 | 0.26 |
| Emil Krafth DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.68 |
| Nick Pope GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Sean Longstaff MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Lloyd Kelly DL | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Valentino Livramento DR | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Jacob Murphy FWR | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Harvey Barnes Sub | 29 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.83 | 1.11 |
| Kieran Trippier Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Lewis Hall Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.67 |
| Joe Willock Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Miguel Almirón Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |