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Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 4 February 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG

Shots
9 – 8
On target
1 – 6
Shots in box
4 – 3
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.97 – 0.16
Goals − xG
-0.19 – +0.54
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.30.71.01.30'15'30'45'60'75'90'Justin Kluivert 4' — goalCallum Hudson-Odoi 44' — goal
Bournemouth 1.19 xGNottingham Forest 0.46 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Ryan Christie 1' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Justin Kluivert 4' — Goal (0.81 xG, From Corner)Luis Sinisterra 4' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Justin Kluivert 9' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Taiwo Awoniyi 10' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Taiwo Awoniyi 15' — Saved Shot (0.15 xG, Open Play)Antoine Semenyo 16' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Ryan Yates 24' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Set Piece)Luis Sinisterra 30' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Ryan Yates 42' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Callum Hudson-Odoi 44' — Goal (0.03 xG, Set Piece)Nuno Tavares 46' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Justin Kluivert 51' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Direct Freekick)Luis Sinisterra 51' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Neco Williams 64' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Marcus Tavernier 72' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Morgan Gibbs-White 94' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)
Bournemouth attacking right Nottingham Forest attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
1' Bournemouth Ryan Christie 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Antoine Semenyo
4' Bournemouth Justin Kluivert 0.81 From Corner Right Foot Goal Luis Sinisterra
4' Bournemouth Luis Sinisterra 0.06 From Corner Blocked Shot Lewis Cook
9' Bournemouth Justin Kluivert 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Luis Sinisterra
10' Nottingham Forest Taiwo Awoniyi 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Morgan Gibbs-White
15' Nottingham Forest Taiwo Awoniyi 0.15 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Nicolás Domínguez
16' Bournemouth Antoine Semenyo 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
24' Nottingham Forest Ryan Yates 0.10 Set Piece Left Foot Saved Shot Murillo
30' Bournemouth Luis Sinisterra 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
42' Nottingham Forest Ryan Yates 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Anthony Elanga
44' Nottingham Forest Callum Hudson-Odoi 0.03 Set Piece Right Foot Goal
46' Nottingham Forest Nuno Tavares 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot Callum Hudson-Odoi
51' Bournemouth Justin Kluivert 0.07 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot
51' Bournemouth Luis Sinisterra 0.03 From Corner Blocked Shot Lewis Cook
64' Nottingham Forest Neco Williams 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot
72' Bournemouth Marcus Tavernier 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Dominic Solanke
94' Nottingham Forest Morgan Gibbs-White 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Andrew Omobamidele

Players

Nottingham Forest

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Taiwo Awoniyi FW 90 0 0 2 0 0.21 0.00 0.21
Ryan Yates DMC 90 0 0 2 0 0.17 0.00 0.12
Callum Hudson-Odoi AML 90 1 0 1 1 0.03 0.02 0.00
Morgan Gibbs-White AMC 90 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.05 0.08
Nuno Tavares DL 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.00
Andrew Omobamidele DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.08
Murillo DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.10 0.07
Matz Sels GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Neco Williams DR 84 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.05
Anthony Elanga AMR 84 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.07
Nicolás Domínguez DMC 78 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.15 0.15
Danilo Sub 12 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Giovanni Reyna Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gonzalo Montiel Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Rodrigo Ribeiro Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Bournemouth

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Adam Smith DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Lewis Cook DMC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.09 0.08
Neto GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Dominic Solanke FW 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.10 0.10
Illia Zabarnyi DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Marcos Senesi DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Lloyd Kelly DL 89 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Luis Sinisterra AML 77 0 1 3 2 0.11 0.85 0.05
Justin Kluivert AMC 62 1 0 3 0 0.91 0.00 0.03
Ryan Christie DMC 62 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.08
Antoine Semenyo AMR 52 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.05 0.10
Marcus Tavernier Sub 38 0 0 1 0 0.10 0.00 0.10
Alex Scott Sub 28 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Philip Billing Sub 28 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Dango Ouattara Sub 13 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Milos Kerkez Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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