Bournemouth v Southampton — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 30 September 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 9
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
9 – 6
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.50 – 0.43
Goals − xG
+1.56 – +0.30
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bournemouth win
72.0%
Draw
15.3%
Southampton win
12.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bournemouth are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDDLDD last 10
scored 16
from 17.6 xG
conceded 11
from 16.1 xG
Southampton have scored 6 from 7.4 expected and conceded 18 from 18.4 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LDLLDLLDLL last 10
scored 6
from 7.4 xG
conceded 18
from 18.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 2.79–1.13 | 2-1 9% | 75% | 63% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bournemouth 1.44 xGSouthampton 0.70 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bournemouth attacking right
Southampton attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Southampton |
Tyler Dibling | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Flynn Downes |
| 3' |
Southampton |
Maxwel Cornet | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Chimuanya Ugochukwu |
| 7' |
Southampton |
Ryan Fraser | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 16' |
 Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.47 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | Marcus Tavernier |
| 26' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ryan Christie |
| 31' |
Bournemouth |
Dango Ouattara | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Lewis Cook |
| 31' |
Bournemouth |
Lewis Cook | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Antoine Semenyo |
| 38' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Lewis Cook |
| 46' |
Bournemouth |
Ryan Christie | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 49' |
Southampton |
Taylor Harwood-Bellis | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Tyler Dibling |
| 50' |
Southampton |
Taylor Harwood-Bellis | 0.34 | Set Piece | — | Goal | — |
| 53' |
Southampton |
Ross Stewart | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Charlie Taylor |
| 56' |
Southampton |
Ben Brereton Díaz | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mateus Fernandes |
| 60' |
Bournemouth |
Milos Kerkez | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 62' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Justin Kluivert |
| 64' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 66' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Antoine Semenyo |
| 67' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lewis Cook |
| 74' |
Southampton |
Adam Lallana | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Yukinari Sugawara |
| 79' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lewis Cook |
| 81' |
Bournemouth |
Ryan Christie | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 83' |
Southampton |
Joe Ayodele-Aribo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Flynn Downes |
| 90' |
Bournemouth |
Luis Sinisterra | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Enes Ünal |
Players
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Semenyo AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.19 | 0.49 |
| Lewis Cook DMC | 90 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0.09 | 0.42 | 0.51 |
| Ryan Christie DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.33 |
| Milos Kerkez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Marcos Senesi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Adam Smith DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Kepa GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Illia Zabarnyi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Evanilson FW | 79 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Marcus Tavernier AMC | 79 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.60 | 0.34 |
| Dango Ouattara AML | 64 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Justin Kluivert Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.26 |
| Enes Ünal Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Alex Scott Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Luis Sinisterra Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
Southampton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Harwood-Bellis DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Jan Bednarek DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Flynn Downes DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| Charlie Taylor DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| Yukinari Sugawara DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| Aaron Ramsdale GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Tyler Dibling FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Mateus Fernandes AMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| Maxwel Cornet AMR | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Ryan Fraser AML | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Chimuanya Ugochukwu DMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Ross Stewart Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Ben Brereton Díaz Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Joe Ayodele-Aribo Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Adam Lallana Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cameron Archer Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |