Bournemouth v Sunderland — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 18 October 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
29 – 3
On target
6 – 0
Shots in box
20 – 2
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.03
Set-piece xG
0.51 – 0.09
Goals − xG
-2.42 – -0.09
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyBournemouth win
51.1%
model 51.5%
Draw
22.2%
model 23.4%
Sunderland win
26.7%
model 25.2%
Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (466 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 10.9%
- 2-1 9.7%
- 1-0 9.3%
- 2-0 8.3%
- 1-2 6.4%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 56.5% | Under 2.5 | 43.5% |
| BTTS yes | 57.3% | BTTS no | 42.7% |
| Bournemouth 1+ | 83.0% | Bournemouth 2+ | 52.9% |
| Sunderland 1+ | 69.0% | Sunderland 2+ | 32.7% |
Expected goals 1.77 – 1.17. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
AI confidence
98/100
Data quality
100/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Bournemouth (-0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 43%
52.1% fair odds 1.92
moderate signal · 1133 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Under 2.5 in 1st half
Over/Under 1HT · usually 87%
84.1% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 385 settled matches behind the band
Positive factors
- Bournemouth carry the stronger rating, 1625 Elo against 1549.
- Bournemouth have created 1.61 xG a match over their last five while Sunderland have allowed 1.52.
- At home Bournemouth average 1.95 xG a match.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Bournemouth have an estimated 51.1% win probability, against 26.7% for Sunderland and 22.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.77 for Bournemouth and 1.17 for Sunderland.
Why Bournemouth
Bournemouth carry the stronger rating, 1625 Elo against 1549. Bournemouth have created 1.61 xG a match over their last five while Sunderland have allowed 1.52. At home Bournemouth average 1.95 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 22.2%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why Sunderland can win
Sunderland have created 1.67 xG a match over their last five while Bournemouth have allowed 1.36. Away from home Sunderland average 1.73 xG a match.
Key players
Bournemouth's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Marcus Tavernier (0.43), Evanilson (0.42), Rayan (0.33). Sunderland's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Enzo Le Fée (0.40), Brian Brobbey (0.32), Habib Diarra (0.17).
Availability
1 of Sunderland's top three contributors did not start their last match.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Bournemouth: 51% possession, 14.4 shots a match, 10.2 faced, 0.68 xG a match from set pieces. Sunderland: 48% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.32 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-18 14:11 · team_stats 2026-10-18 06:07 · availability 2026-10-18 15:01 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Bournemouth are the model's most likely outcome at 51.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.9%. Confidence 98/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bournemouth are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WDDLDDDLLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.2 xG
conceded 15
from 13.0 xG
Sunderland are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DWWLWDLLLL last 10
scored 11
from 15.9 xG
conceded 16
from 17.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.77–1.17 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-goals | 1.53–0.89 | 1-1 13% | 44% | 47% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg | 1.87–1.18 | 1-1 10% | 59% | 59% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.87–1.18 | 1-1 10% | 59% | 59% | Home ✓ | |
| deep | 1.87–1.18 | 1-1 10% | 59% | 59% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth to win | 53.3% | 51.5% | 42.9% | 1.20× | 1.94 |
| Sunderland to win | 24.1% | 24.4% | 32.4% | 0.75× | 4.09 |
| Draw | 22.6% | 24.4% | 24.8% | 0.99× | 4.09 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth & both teams score | 27.4% | 25.2% | 22.9% | 1.10× | 3.97 |
| Bournemouth & not both score | 25.9% | 25.2% | 20.1% | 1.25× | 3.98 |
| Draw & both teams score | 17.9% | 18.0% | 19.9% | 0.90× | 5.57 |
| Sunderland & both teams score | 13.3% | 13.3% | 15.4% | 0.86× | 7.53 |
| Sunderland & not both score | 10.7% | 13.3% | 17.1% | 0.78× | 7.53 |
| Draw & not both score | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 0.98× | 20.53 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth & over 1.5 | 44.5% | 40.3% | 36.5% | 1.10× | 2.48 |
| Bournemouth & over 2.5 | 36.2% | 34.9% | 30.2% | 1.15× | 2.87 |
| Bournemouth & under 3.5 | 32.0% | 30.7% | 26.6% | 1.16× | 3.25 |
| Bournemouth & over 3.5 | 21.3% | 21.6% | 16.4% | 1.32× | 4.63 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 17.9% | 18.0% | 19.9% | 0.90× | 5.56 |
| Sunderland & over 1.5 | 18.5% | 18.0% | 25.4% | 0.71× | 5.56 |
| Bournemouth & under 2.5 | 17.1% | 18.0% | 12.8% | 1.41× | 5.56 |
| Sunderland & under 3.5 | 16.4% | 18.0% | 21.9% | 0.82× | 5.56 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 15.2% | 18.0% | 16.2% | 1.11× | 5.56 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 15.2% | 18.0% | 16.2% | 1.11× | 5.56 |
| Sunderland & over 2.5 | 15.1% | 18.0% | 19.9% | 0.90× | 5.56 |
| Bournemouth & under 1.5 | 8.8% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 1.23× | 12.62 |
| Sunderland & under 2.5 | 8.9% | 7.9% | 12.6% | 0.63× | 12.62 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 0.92× | 12.62 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 0.92× | 12.62 |
| Sunderland & over 3.5 | 7.6% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 0.75× | 12.62 |
| Sunderland & under 1.5 | 5.6% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 1.13× | 12.62 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 0.97× | 20.80 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth (1UP) | 68.3% | 70.0% | 62.1% | 1.13× | 1.43 |
| Sunderland (1UP) | 43.4% | 38.7% | 51.5% | 0.75× | 2.58 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth (2UP) | 53.3% | 55.1% | 44.7% | 1.23× | 1.82 |
| Sunderland (2UP) | 24.1% | 23.5% | 34.5% | 0.68× | 4.25 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth to win 2nd half | 43.0% | 41.8% | 36.0% | 1.16× | 2.39 |
| 2nd half drawn | 32.5% | 34.3% | 31.2% | 1.10× | 2.92 |
| Sunderland to win 2nd half | 24.6% | 24.3% | 32.8% | 0.74× | 4.12 |
2nd half away goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland under 1.5 in 2nd half | 83.8% | 84.3% | 79.8% | 1.06× | 1.19 |
| Sunderland over 0.5 in 2nd half | 51.3% | 52.5% | 57.9% | 0.91× | 1.91 |
| Sunderland under 0.5 in 2nd half | 48.7% | 47.5% | 42.1% | 1.13× | 2.10 |
| Sunderland over 1.5 in 2nd half | 16.2% | 15.7% | 20.2% | 0.78× | 6.38 |
2nd half home goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth under 1.5 in 2nd half | 71.6% | 74.0% | 75.2% | 0.98× | 1.35 |
| Bournemouth over 0.5 in 2nd half | 65.2% | 70.7% | 58.2% | 1.21× | 1.41 |
| Bournemouth under 0.5 in 2nd half | 34.8% | 29.3% | 41.8% | 0.70× | 3.41 |
| Bournemouth over 1.5 in 2nd half | 28.5% | 26.0% | 24.8% | 1.05× | 3.84 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland (+2.5) | 85.9% | 88.5% | 89.1% | 0.99× | 1.13 |
| Bournemouth (+0.5) | 75.9% | 78.5% | 67.6% | 1.16× | 1.27 |
| Sunderland (+1.5) | 69.6% | 68.7% | 76.1% | 0.90× | 1.46 |
| Bournemouth (-0.5) | 53.3% | 52.4% | 42.9% | 1.22× | 1.91 |
| Sunderland (+0.5) | 46.7% | 47.6% | 57.1% | 0.83× | 2.10 |
| Bournemouth (-1.5) | 30.4% | 31.3% | 23.9% | 1.31× | 3.19 |
| Sunderland (-0.5) | 24.1% | 21.5% | 32.4% | 0.66× | 4.65 |
| Bournemouth (-2.5) | 14.1% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 1.06× | 8.67 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland to concede | 84.5% | 81.5% | 78.0% | 1.04× | 1.23 |
| Sunderland clean sheet | 15.5% | 18.5% | 22.0% | 0.84× | 5.41 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland to concede in 1st half | 55.5% | 56.8% | 51.1% | 1.11× | 1.76 |
| Sunderland clean sheet in 1st half | 44.5% | 43.2% | 48.9% | 0.88× | 2.31 |
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland to concede in 2nd half | 65.2% | 65.9% | 58.2% | 1.13× | 1.52 |
| Sunderland clean sheet in 2nd half | 34.8% | 34.1% | 41.8% | 0.82× | 2.93 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland under 6.5 corners | 87.4% | 85.2% | — | — | 1.17 |
| Sunderland under 5.5 corners | 78.7% | 76.0% | — | — | 1.32 |
| Sunderland over 2.5 corners | 68.1% | 67.6% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Sunderland under 4.5 corners | 66.2% | 67.6% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Sunderland under 3.5 corners | 50.0% | 53.0% | — | — | 1.89 |
| Sunderland over 3.5 corners | 50.0% | 47.0% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Sunderland over 4.5 corners | 33.8% | 32.4% | — | — | 3.09 |
| Sunderland under 2.5 corners | 31.9% | 32.4% | — | — | 3.09 |
| Sunderland over 5.5 corners | 21.3% | 24.0% | — | — | 4.17 |
| Sunderland over 6.5 corners | 12.6% | 14.8% | — | — | 6.77 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland under 3.5 goals | 96.8% | 97.5% | 94.6% | 1.03× | 1.03 |
| Sunderland under 2.5 goals | 88.3% | 87.8% | 85.0% | 1.03× | 1.14 |
| Sunderland over 0.5 goals | 69.4% | 68.0% | 75.1% | 0.91× | 1.47 |
| Sunderland under 1.5 goals | 66.8% | 68.0% | 60.5% | 1.12× | 1.47 |
| Sunderland over 1.5 goals | 33.2% | 32.0% | 39.5% | 0.81× | 3.12 |
| Sunderland under 0.5 goals | 30.6% | 32.0% | 24.9% | 1.28× | 3.13 |
| Sunderland over 2.5 goals | 11.7% | 12.2% | 15.0% | 0.81× | 8.21 |
| Sunderland over 3.5 goals | 3.2% | 2.5% | 5.4% | 0.46× | 39.98 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland under 1.5 in 1st half | 92.0% | 94.0% | 89.2% | 1.05× | 1.06 |
| Sunderland under 0.5 in 1st half | 62.8% | 63.3% | 59.7% | 1.06× | 1.58 |
| Sunderland over 0.5 in 1st half | 37.2% | 36.7% | 40.3% | 0.91× | 2.73 |
| Sunderland over 1.5 in 1st half | 8.0% | 6.0% | 10.8% | 0.55× | 16.74 |
Away highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland scores equally in both | 41.7% | 43.5% | 37.5% | 1.16× | 2.30 |
| Sunderland scores more in 2nd half | 37.2% | 37.3% | 40.8% | 0.91× | 2.68 |
| Sunderland scores more in 1st half | 21.1% | 21.9% | 21.7% | 1.01× | 4.57 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth (away no bet) | 70.2% | 68.3% | 63.4% | 1.08× | 1.46 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 29.8% | 31.7% | 36.6% | 0.87× | 3.15 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland even goals | 54.7% | 52.6% | 53.5% | 0.98× | 1.90 |
| Sunderland odd goals | 45.3% | 47.4% | 46.5% | 1.02× | 2.11 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 80.7% | 82.8% | 80.0% | 1.03× | 1.21 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 19.3% | 17.2% | 20.0% | 0.86× | 5.81 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 70.1% | 67.3% | 70.3% | 0.96× | 1.49 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 29.9% | 32.7% | 29.7% | 1.10× | 3.06 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 62.3% | 60.1% | 61.6% | 0.98× | 1.66 |
| Bournemouth to score 2+ in a row | 46.7% | 45.9% | 39.1% | 1.17× | 2.18 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 25.1% | 25.1% | 26.1% | 0.96× | 3.99 |
| Sunderland to score 2+ in a row | 23.4% | 19.7% | 29.8% | 0.66× | 5.08 |
| Bournemouth to score 3+ in a row | 19.5% | 16.3% | 16.4% | 1.00× | 6.13 |
| Sunderland to score 3+ in a row | 5.9% | 5.6% | 10.1% | 0.55× | 17.96 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth corners (+3.5) | 92.8% | 89.6% | — | — | 1.12 |
| Bournemouth corners (+2.5) | 88.2% | 84.5% | — | — | 1.18 |
| Bournemouth corners (+1.5) | 81.7% | 79.8% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Sunderland corners (+3.5) | 68.7% | 65.9% | — | — | 1.52 |
| Sunderland corners (+2.5) | 58.7% | 57.1% | — | — | 1.75 |
| Bournemouth corners (-1.5) | 52.2% | 52.4% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Sunderland corners (+1.5) | 47.8% | 47.6% | — | — | 2.10 |
| Bournemouth corners (-2.5) | 41.3% | 42.9% | — | — | 2.33 |
| Bournemouth corners (-3.5) | 31.3% | 34.1% | — | — | 2.93 |
| Sunderland corners (-1.5) | 18.3% | 20.2% | — | — | 4.94 |
| Sunderland corners (-2.5) | 11.8% | 15.5% | — | — | 6.46 |
| Sunderland corners (-3.5) | 7.2% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.59 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-8 corners | 43.6% | 38.4% | — | — | 2.61 |
| 9-11 corners | 29.1% | 31.2% | — | — | 3.21 |
| 12+ corners | 27.2% | 31.2% | — | — | 3.21 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 12.5 corners | 80.0% | 76.6% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 72.8% | 72.6% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 67.1% | 67.8% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 64.1% | 63.2% | — | — | 1.58 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 56.4% | 57.9% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 54.3% | 53.2% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 45.8% | 46.8% | — | — | 2.14 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 43.6% | 42.1% | — | — | 2.37 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 35.9% | 36.8% | — | — | 2.72 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 32.9% | 32.2% | — | — | 3.11 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 27.2% | 27.5% | — | — | 3.64 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 20.1% | 23.4% | — | — | 4.27 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 50.1% | — | — | 2.00 |
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 49.9% | — | — | 2.01 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.5% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 1.01× | 8.72 |
| 1-0 | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 1.15× | 13.51 |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 0.83× | 13.50 |
| 2-0 | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 1.16× | 13.51 |
| 0-1 | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 1.05× | 13.51 |
| 1-2 | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 1.08× | 13.51 |
| 2-2 | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 0.96× | 13.51 |
| 3-0 | 5.1% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 1.46× | 13.51 |
| 3-1 | 6.1% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 1.37× | 13.51 |
| 0-0 | 4.7% | 1.7% | 5.0% | 0.35× | 58.29 |
| Any other score | 4.8% | 1.7% | 4.3% | 0.40× | 58.29 |
| 0-2 | 3.3% | 1.7% | 5.6% | 0.30× | 58.30 |
| 0-3 | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 0.67× | 58.31 |
| 0-4 | 0.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.59× | 58.32 |
| 1-3 | 2.4% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 0.54× | 58.31 |
| 1-4 | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.22× | 58.32 |
| 2-3 | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 0.69× | 58.31 |
| 2-4 | 0.7% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.59× | 58.32 |
| 3-2 | 3.6% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 0.56× | 58.30 |
| 3-3 | 1.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.30× | 58.31 |
| 3-4 | 0.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 3.45× | 58.32 |
| 4-0 | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.29× | 58.31 |
| 4-1 | 2.8% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 0.74× | 58.30 |
| 4-2 | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.29× | 58.31 |
| 4-3 | 0.7% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.88× | 58.32 |
| 4-4 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 5.18× | 58.32 |
DNB 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth (2nd half DNB) | 63.6% | 62.7% | 52.3% | 1.20× | 1.60 |
| Sunderland (2nd half DNB) | 36.4% | 37.3% | 47.7% | 0.78× | 2.68 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth leading at HT (DNB) | 67.6% | 73.3% | 59.7% | 1.23× | 1.36 |
| Sunderland leading at HT (DNB) | 32.4% | 26.7% | 40.3% | 0.66× | 3.75 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth or Sunderland (12) | 77.4% | 75.6% | 75.2% | 1.00× | 1.32 |
| Bournemouth or draw (1X) | 75.9% | 75.6% | 67.6% | 1.12× | 1.32 |
| Sunderland or draw (X2) | 46.7% | 48.5% | 57.1% | 0.85× | 2.06 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth or draw at HT | 80.4% | 83.9% | 75.7% | 1.11× | 1.19 |
| Bournemouth or Sunderland at HT | 60.5% | 61.3% | 60.1% | 1.02× | 1.63 |
| Sunderland or draw at HT | 59.1% | 57.5% | 64.0% | 0.90× | 1.74 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth or draw (1UP) | 75.9% | 83.9% | 74.2% | 1.13× | 1.19 |
| Sunderland or draw (1UP) | 46.7% | 53.3% | 65.4% | 0.82× | 1.88 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth or draw in 2nd half | 75.4% | 75.7% | 67.2% | 1.13× | 1.32 |
| Bournemouth or Sunderland in 2nd half | 67.5% | 65.7% | 68.8% | 0.96× | 1.52 |
| Sunderland or draw in 2nd half | 57.1% | 58.2% | 64.0% | 0.91× | 1.72 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 59.2% | 58.6% | 57.2% | 1.02× | 1.71 |
| Neither half drawn | 40.8% | 41.4% | 42.8% | 0.97× | 2.42 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth (DNB) | 68.9% | 67.4% | 57.0% | 1.18× | 1.48 |
| Sunderland (DNB) | 31.1% | 32.6% | 43.0% | 0.76× | 3.07 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth to score first | 58.3% | 62.1% | 51.8% | 1.20× | 1.61 |
| Sunderland to score first | 37.0% | 32.9% | 43.3% | 0.76× | 3.04 |
| No goal scored | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 0.87× | 23.11 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 58.6% | 55.0% | 58.1% | 0.95× | 1.82 |
| Not both teams to score | 41.4% | 45.0% | 41.9% | 1.07× | 2.22 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both score & over 2.5 | 48.2% | 44.4% | 46.8% | 0.95× | 2.25 |
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 30.8% | 34.5% | 30.2% | 1.14× | 2.90 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 10.6% | 12.4% | 11.8% | 1.04× | 8.10 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 10.5% | 12.4% | 11.4% | 1.09× | 8.10 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 81.6% | 82.6% | 82.0% | 1.01× | 1.21 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 18.4% | 17.4% | 18.0% | 0.97× | 5.74 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 66.6% | 67.2% | 68.5% | 0.98× | 1.49 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 33.4% | 32.8% | 31.5% | 1.04× | 3.05 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 52.8% | 54.8% | 55.8% | 0.98× | 1.83 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 26.5% | 27.4% | 24.7% | 1.11× | 3.65 |
| Both score 1st half only | 13.8% | 10.8% | 12.8% | 0.84× | 9.27 |
| Both score in both halves | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 0.99× | 14.67 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 79.3% | 81.1% | 80.4% | 1.01× | 1.23 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 20.7% | 18.9% | 19.6% | 0.96× | 5.30 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A goal in each half | 59.8% | 57.2% | 61.5% | 0.93× | 1.75 |
| A half without a goal | 40.2% | 42.8% | 38.5% | 1.11× | 2.34 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 44.4% | 42.1% | 46.3% | 0.91× | 2.37 |
| 4-6 goals | 32.8% | 30.7% | 32.7% | 0.94× | 3.25 |
| 0-1 goals | 19.2% | 20.3% | 18.3% | 1.11× | 4.93 |
| 7+ goals | 3.6% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 0.65× | 54.35 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland to score exactly 1 | 36.2% | 35.9% | 35.6% | 1.01× | 2.78 |
| Sunderland to score exactly 0 | 30.6% | 33.8% | 24.9% | 1.35× | 2.96 |
| Sunderland to score exactly 2 | 21.5% | 22.3% | 24.6% | 0.91× | 4.48 |
| Sunderland to score 3+ | 11.7% | 12.9% | 15.0% | 0.86× | 7.77 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth to score exactly 1 | 28.9% | 26.6% | 29.2% | 0.91× | 3.77 |
| Bournemouth to score 3+ | 28.7% | 26.6% | 22.9% | 1.16× | 3.77 |
| Bournemouth to score exactly 2 | 26.9% | 26.6% | 26.1% | 1.02× | 3.77 |
| Bournemouth to score exactly 0 | 15.5% | 18.8% | 22.0% | 0.85× | 5.33 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth leading at HT | 40.9% | 42.5% | 36.0% | 1.18× | 2.35 |
| Draw at HT | 39.5% | 38.7% | 39.9% | 0.97× | 2.58 |
| Sunderland leading at HT | 19.6% | 16.1% | 24.3% | 0.66× | 6.21 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth -1: 2 | 46.7% | 46.9% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Bournemouth -1: 1 | 30.4% | 30.0% | — | — | 3.33 |
| Bournemouth -1: X | 22.9% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.25 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland (0:1) | 46.7% | 46.2% | 57.1% | 0.81× | 2.17 |
| Bournemouth (0:1) | 30.4% | 30.0% | 23.9% | 1.26× | 3.33 |
| Draw (0:1) | 22.9% | 24.2% | 19.1% | 1.27× | 4.13 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland (0:2) | 69.6% | 72.3% | 76.1% | 0.95× | 1.38 |
| Draw (0:2) | 16.3% | 15.3% | 13.1% | 1.17× | 6.55 |
| Bournemouth (0:2) | 14.1% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 1.01× | 9.11 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland (0:3) | 85.9% | 90.6% | 89.1% | 1.02× | 1.10 |
| Draw (0:3) | 8.7% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 0.76× | 17.17 |
| Bournemouth (0:3) | 5.4% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 1.75× | 17.23 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland (0:4) | 94.6% | 94.6% | 96.7% | 0.98× | 1.06 |
| Draw (0:4) | 3.7% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 0.59× | 81.90 |
| Bournemouth (0:4) | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.92× | 82.11 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth (1:0) | 75.9% | 78.6% | 67.6% | 1.16× | 1.27 |
| Draw (1:0) | 14.6% | 12.7% | 16.7% | 0.76× | 7.86 |
| Sunderland (1:0) | 9.5% | 6.9% | 15.7% | 0.44× | 14.46 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth (2:0) | 90.5% | 94.0% | 84.3% | 1.12× | 1.06 |
| Draw (2:0) | 6.6% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 0.69× | 15.71 |
| Sunderland (2:0) | 3.0% | 2.3% | 6.5% | 0.35× | 43.63 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 49.1% | 48.8% | 49.6% | 0.98× | 2.05 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 27.6% | 26.3% | 25.8% | 1.02× | 3.81 |
| Halves equal | 23.3% | 24.3% | 24.6% | 0.99× | 4.12 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth to concede | 69.4% | 66.7% | 75.1% | 0.89× | 1.50 |
| Bournemouth clean sheet | 30.6% | 33.3% | 24.9% | 1.33× | 3.01 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth clean sheet in 1st half | 62.8% | 63.2% | 59.7% | 1.06× | 1.58 |
| Bournemouth to concede in 1st half | 37.2% | 36.8% | 40.3% | 0.91× | 2.72 |
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth to concede in 2nd half | 51.3% | 52.6% | 57.9% | 0.91× | 1.90 |
| Bournemouth clean sheet in 2nd half | 48.7% | 47.4% | 42.1% | 1.13× | 2.11 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth over 2.5 corners | 86.0% | 86.3% | — | — | 1.16 |
| Bournemouth over 3.5 corners | 74.2% | 71.9% | — | — | 1.39 |
| Bournemouth under 6.5 corners | 65.6% | 66.7% | — | — | 1.50 |
| Bournemouth over 4.5 corners | 60.5% | 62.3% | — | — | 1.61 |
| Bournemouth under 5.5 corners | 53.2% | 52.6% | — | — | 1.90 |
| Bournemouth over 5.5 corners | 46.8% | 47.4% | — | — | 2.11 |
| Bournemouth under 4.5 corners | 39.5% | 37.7% | — | — | 2.65 |
| Bournemouth over 6.5 corners | 34.4% | 33.3% | — | — | 3.01 |
| Bournemouth under 3.5 corners | 25.8% | 28.1% | — | — | 3.56 |
| Bournemouth under 2.5 corners | 14.0% | 13.7% | — | — | 7.29 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth under 3.5 goals | 88.1% | 87.3% | 91.5% | 0.95× | 1.15 |
| Bournemouth over 0.5 goals | 84.5% | 82.2% | 78.0% | 1.05× | 1.22 |
| Bournemouth under 2.5 goals | 71.3% | 74.2% | 77.1% | 0.96× | 1.35 |
| Bournemouth over 1.5 goals | 55.6% | 58.6% | 48.9% | 1.20× | 1.71 |
| Bournemouth under 1.5 goals | 44.4% | 41.4% | 51.1% | 0.81× | 2.42 |
| Bournemouth over 2.5 goals | 28.7% | 25.8% | 22.9% | 1.13× | 3.88 |
| Bournemouth under 0.5 goals | 15.5% | 17.8% | 22.0% | 0.81× | 5.62 |
| Bournemouth over 3.5 goals | 11.9% | 12.7% | 8.5% | 1.51× | 7.86 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth under 1.5 in 1st half | 80.5% | 83.7% | 84.4% | 0.99× | 1.19 |
| Bournemouth over 0.5 in 1st half | 55.5% | 56.5% | 51.1% | 1.11× | 1.77 |
| Bournemouth under 0.5 in 1st half | 44.5% | 43.5% | 48.9% | 0.89× | 2.30 |
| Bournemouth over 1.5 in 1st half | 19.5% | 16.3% | 15.6% | 1.05× | 6.14 |
Home highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth scores more in 2nd half | 40.7% | 42.0% | 36.0% | 1.16× | 2.38 |
| Bournemouth scores equally in both | 31.8% | 33.0% | 37.7% | 0.88× | 3.03 |
| Bournemouth scores more in 1st half | 27.5% | 27.9% | 26.3% | 1.06× | 3.58 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland (home no bet) | 51.6% | 51.4% | 56.7% | 0.91× | 1.95 |
| Draw (home no bet) | 48.4% | 48.6% | 43.3% | 1.12× | 2.06 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth even goals | 51.2% | 50.7% | 54.1% | 0.94× | 1.97 |
| Bournemouth odd goals | 48.8% | 49.3% | 45.9% | 1.07× | 2.03 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 27.9% | 28.2% | 28.2% | 1.00× | 3.54 |
| HT 1-0 | 22.6% | 24.3% | 21.5% | 1.13× | 4.11 |
| HT 0-1 | 13.0% | 11.0% | 14.7% | 0.75× | 9.06 |
| HT 1-1 | 10.5% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 1.01× | 9.08 |
| HT 2-0 | 9.2% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 0.86× | 14.46 |
| Any other HT score | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 1.28× | 14.51 |
| HT 2-1 | 4.3% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 0.64× | 41.98 |
| HT 0-2 | 3.0% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 0.54× | 42.06 |
| HT 1-2 | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 0.82× | 42.10 |
| HT 2-2 | 1.0% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 2.38× | 42.20 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth at HT / Bournemouth at FT | 33.5% | 31.7% | 26.3% | 1.21× | 3.16 |
| Draw at HT / Bournemouth at FT | 17.0% | 16.8% | 13.9% | 1.21× | 5.96 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 12.8% | 12.7% | 13.8% | 0.92× | 7.90 |
| Sunderland at HT / Sunderland at FT | 12.3% | 12.7% | 16.8% | 0.75× | 7.90 |
| Draw at HT / Sunderland at FT | 9.7% | 6.1% | 12.3% | 0.49× | 16.52 |
| Bournemouth at HT / Draw at FT | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 0.94× | 16.65 |
| Sunderland at HT / Draw at FT | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 0.74× | 28.59 |
| Sunderland at HT / Bournemouth at FT | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.20× | 28.64 |
| Bournemouth at HT / Sunderland at FT | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 1.00× | 28.67 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth to score last | 58.3% | 56.4% | 50.0% | 1.13× | 1.77 |
| Sunderland to score last | 37.0% | 38.7% | 45.2% | 0.86× | 2.58 |
| No goal scored | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 0.87× | 23.11 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 95.3% | 95.6% | 95.0% | 1.01× | 1.05 |
| Bournemouth to lead by 1 at any time | 68.3% | 69.3% | 62.1% | 1.12× | 1.44 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 52.6% | 50.8% | 50.5% | 1.01× | 1.97 |
| Sunderland to lead by 1 at any time | 43.4% | 39.1% | 51.5% | 0.76× | 2.56 |
| Bournemouth to lead by 2 at any time | 37.7% | 34.6% | 29.7% | 1.16× | 2.89 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 21.4% | 19.5% | 21.2% | 0.92× | 5.12 |
| Bournemouth to lead by 3 at any time | 17.1% | 15.0% | 13.2% | 1.14× | 6.68 |
| Sunderland to lead by 2 at any time | 15.2% | 14.9% | 21.1% | 0.71× | 6.69 |
| Sunderland to lead by 3 at any time | 4.4% | 1.7% | 8.1% | 0.20× | 60.32 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth most corners | 63.2% | 60.6% | — | — | 1.65 |
| Sunderland most corners | 26.8% | 31.1% | — | — | 3.22 |
| Corners level | 10.1% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.59 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 86.4% | 87.4% | 88.4% | 0.99× | 1.14 |
| 2-6 goals | 77.2% | 78.7% | 79.0% | 1.00× | 1.27 |
| 1-4 goals | 76.0% | 78.6% | 77.9% | 1.01× | 1.27 |
| 2-5 goals | 71.9% | 72.4% | 75.1% | 0.96× | 1.38 |
| 2-4 goals | 61.5% | 63.3% | 64.5% | 0.98× | 1.58 |
| 1-3 goals | 58.9% | 59.1% | 59.7% | 0.99× | 1.69 |
| 3-6 goals | 55.2% | 59.1% | 55.8% | 1.06× | 1.69 |
| 3-5 goals | 49.9% | 48.5% | 51.9% | 0.93× | 2.06 |
| 2-3 goals | 44.4% | 43.6% | 46.3% | 0.94× | 2.29 |
| 3-4 goals | 39.5% | 39.2% | 41.4% | 0.95× | 2.55 |
| 1-2 goals | 36.5% | 39.2% | 36.5% | 1.07× | 2.55 |
| 4-6 goals | 32.8% | 35.2% | 32.7% | 1.08× | 2.84 |
| 4-5 goals | 27.5% | 30.2% | 28.8% | 1.05× | 3.31 |
| 5-6 goals | 15.7% | 18.8% | 14.5% | 1.30× | 5.32 |
| 7+ goals | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 0.91× | 39.15 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth never behind | 51.9% | 62.3% | 48.5% | 1.29× | 1.60 |
| Sunderland never behind | 27.0% | 30.1% | 37.9% | 0.79× | 3.32 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 49.9% | 50.9% | 49.2% | 1.03× | 1.96 |
| Even number of goals | 50.1% | 49.1% | 50.8% | 0.97× | 2.04 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 53.9% | 51.6% | 53.6% | 0.96× | 1.94 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 46.1% | 48.4% | 46.4% | 1.04× | 2.07 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 51.4% | 52.0% | 52.0% | 1.00× | 1.92 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 48.6% | 48.0% | 48.0% | 1.00× | 2.09 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 95.3% | 95.4% | 95.0% | 1.00× | 1.05 |
| Under 5.5 goals | 91.1% | 92.3% | 93.3% | 0.99× | 1.08 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.8% | 82.3% | 81.7% | 1.01× | 1.22 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 80.7% | 82.3% | 82.8% | 0.99× | 1.22 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 63.6% | 61.7% | 64.5% | 0.96× | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.8% | 58.6% | 58.6% | 1.00× | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.2% | 41.4% | 41.4% | 1.00× | 2.42 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.4% | 38.3% | 35.5% | 1.08× | 2.61 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 19.3% | 17.7% | 17.2% | 1.03× | 5.64 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19.2% | 17.7% | 18.3% | 0.97× | 5.64 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 8.9% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 1.15× | 12.92 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 0.92× | 21.87 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 96.2% | 97.2% | 97.1% | 1.00× | 1.03 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 90.1% | 92.4% | 92.5% | 1.00× | 1.08 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 76.7% | 75.9% | 78.9% | 0.96× | 1.32 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 75.4% | 75.9% | 76.2% | 1.00× | 1.32 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 53.1% | 51.9% | 53.9% | 0.96× | 1.93 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 46.9% | 48.1% | 46.1% | 1.04× | 2.08 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 24.6% | 24.1% | 23.8% | 1.01× | 4.14 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 23.3% | 24.1% | 21.1% | 1.14× | 4.15 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 9.9% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 1.02× | 13.12 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 0.96× | 35.67 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 86.3% | 89.0% | 87.2% | 1.02× | 1.12 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 72.1% | 71.7% | 71.8% | 1.00× | 1.40 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 63.6% | 63.5% | 64.2% | 0.99× | 1.58 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 36.4% | 36.5% | 35.8% | 1.02× | 2.74 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 27.9% | 28.3% | 28.2% | 1.00× | 3.53 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 13.7% | 11.0% | 12.8% | 0.86× | 9.09 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 83.0% | 83.2% | 84.7% | 0.98× | 1.20 |
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 73.8% | 77.4% | 75.7% | 1.02× | 1.29 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 52.9% | 53.1% | 54.4% | 0.98× | 1.88 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 47.1% | 46.9% | 45.6% | 1.03× | 2.13 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 26.2% | 22.6% | 24.3% | 0.93× | 4.42 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 17.0% | 16.8% | 15.3% | 1.09× | 5.97 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland not to score in both halves | 80.9% | 84.1% | 76.8% | 1.10× | 1.19 |
| Bournemouth not to score in both halves | 63.8% | 64.0% | 68.7% | 0.93× | 1.56 |
| Bournemouth to score in both halves | 36.2% | 36.0% | 31.3% | 1.15× | 2.78 |
| Sunderland to score in both halves | 19.1% | 15.9% | 23.2% | 0.69× | 6.29 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 58.6% | 58.7% | 58.1% | 1.01× | 1.70 |
| Only Bournemouth scores | 25.9% | 26.0% | 20.1% | 1.30× | 3.85 |
| Only Sunderland scores | 10.7% | 11.0% | 17.1% | 0.65× | 9.06 |
| Neither team scores | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 0.93× | 21.62 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 3 goals | 22.4% | 22.6% | 23.2% | 0.97× | 4.43 |
| Exactly 2 goals | 22.0% | 22.6% | 23.2% | 0.97× | 4.43 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 17.1% | 17.5% | 18.3% | 0.95× | 5.73 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 14.5% | 12.1% | 13.4% | 0.90× | 8.25 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 10.4% | 12.1% | 10.6% | 1.14× | 8.25 |
| 6 or more goals | 8.9% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 1.14× | 13.12 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 0.90× | 22.39 |
Total goals 1st half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 goal in 1st half | 35.6% | 37.3% | 36.1% | 1.03× | 2.68 |
| No goals in 1st half | 27.9% | 28.4% | 28.2% | 1.01× | 3.53 |
| 2 goals in 1st half | 22.7% | 21.6% | 23.1% | 0.93× | 4.64 |
| 3+ goals in 1st half | 13.7% | 10.9% | 12.8% | 0.85× | 9.17 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 52.9% | 51.3% | 54.4% | 0.94× | 1.95 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 30.1% | 33.8% | 30.3% | 1.12× | 2.96 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 17.0% | 16.6% | 15.3% | 1.08× | 6.04 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland not to win both halves | 95.2% | 97.1% | 91.3% | 1.06× | 1.03 |
| Bournemouth not to win both halves | 82.4% | 84.1% | 86.6% | 0.97× | 1.19 |
| Bournemouth to win both halves | 17.6% | 15.9% | 13.4% | 1.18× | 6.29 |
| Sunderland to win both halves | 4.8% | 2.9% | 8.7% | 0.33× | 34.73 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth to win either half | 66.3% | 67.6% | 58.6% | 1.15× | 1.48 |
| Sunderland to win neither half | 60.7% | 65.0% | 51.6% | 1.26× | 1.54 |
| Sunderland to win either half | 39.3% | 35.0% | 48.4% | 0.72× | 2.86 |
| Bournemouth to win neither half | 33.7% | 32.4% | 41.4% | 0.78× | 3.09 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland not to win to nil | 89.3% | 88.1% | 82.9% | 1.06× | 1.14 |
| Bournemouth not to win to nil | 74.1% | 75.4% | 80.0% | 0.94× | 1.33 |
| Bournemouth to win to nil | 25.9% | 24.6% | 20.1% | 1.23× | 4.06 |
| Sunderland to win to nil | 10.7% | 11.9% | 17.1% | 0.70× | 8.41 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth by 1 | 22.9% | 24.1% | 19.1% | 1.26× | 4.15 |
| Draw | 22.6% | 24.1% | 24.8% | 0.97× | 4.15 |
| Bournemouth by 2 | 16.3% | 17.0% | 13.1% | 1.30× | 5.87 |
| Sunderland by 1 | 14.6% | 11.8% | 16.7% | 0.70× | 8.51 |
| Bournemouth by 3+ | 14.1% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 1.08× | 8.51 |
| Sunderland by 2 | 6.6% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 0.77× | 13.91 |
| Sunderland by 3+ | 3.0% | 2.7% | 6.5% | 0.42× | 36.78 |
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bournemouth 4.42 xGSunderland 0.09 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bournemouth attacking right
Sunderland attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lewis Cook |
| 1' |
Bournemouth |
Tyler Adams | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 5' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.34 | Open Play | — | Goal | Evanilson |
| 9' |
 Sunderland |
Kevin Danso | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Granit Xhaka |
| 19' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 21' |
Bournemouth |
James Hill | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | António Silva |
| 21' |
Bournemouth |
James Hill | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 31' |
Bournemouth |
Adam Smith | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 31' |
Bournemouth |
Rayan | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ryan Christie |
| 32' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | James Hill |
| 36' |
Bournemouth |
Rayan | 0.40 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Lewis Cook |
| 42' |
Bournemouth |
Rayan | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adam Smith |
| 45' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 45' |
Bournemouth |
Rayan | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 45' |
Bournemouth |
Rayan | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.63 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 51' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Adam Smith |
| 51' |
Bournemouth |
Ryan Christie | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Adrien Truffert |
| 52' |
Bournemouth |
Lewis Cook | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 56' |
Bournemouth |
Ryan Christie | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Evanilson |
| 60' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ryan Christie |
| 60' |
Bournemouth |
Rayan | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ryan Christie |
| 61' |
Bournemouth |
Ryan Christie | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lewis Cook |
| 68' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 71' |
Bournemouth |
Adrien Truffert | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ryan Christie |
| 72' |
Sunderland |
Enzo Le Fée | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Granit Xhaka |
| 79' |
Sunderland |
Trai Hume | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 81' |
Bournemouth |
Amine Adli | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rayan |
| 85' |
Bournemouth |
Rayan | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 89' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ben Doak |
| 90' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayan MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0.80 | 0.14 | 0.60 |
| Adam Smith DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.50 | 0.18 | 0.82 |
| Ryan Christie MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.22 | 0.62 | 1.27 |
| Tyler Adams DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.82 |
| James Hill DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 1.11 |
| Adrien Truffert DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.12 | 0.81 |
| António Silva DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.55 |
| Djordje Petrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Evanilson FW | 85 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 1.07 | 0.43 | 1.70 |
| Marcus Tavernier ML | 85 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.83 | 0.15 | 1.34 |
| Lewis Cook MC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.09 | 0.43 | 0.87 |
| Justin Kluivert Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.64 | 0.00 | 0.78 |
| Amine Adli Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Alvaro Rodríguez Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ben Doak Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| Bafode Diakite Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
Sunderland
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trai Hume AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Enzo Le Fée AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Granit Xhaka DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| Robin Roefs GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Reinildo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nordi Mukiele DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Noah Sadiki DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Chris Rigg AMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Omar Alderete DC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tymur Tutierov FW | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luke O'Nien Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Habib Diarra Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jules Ahoka Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kevin Danso DC | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |