Bournemouth v Tottenham Hotspur — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 7 January 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 16
On target
3 – 4
Shots in box
5 – 11
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.72 – 1.16
Goals − xG
+1.81 – +0.37
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bournemouth win
46.4%
Draw
24.9%
Tottenham Hotspur win
28.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bournemouth are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WDDLDDDLLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.2 xG
conceded 15
from 13.0 xG
Tottenham Hotspur are finishing below their chances — 3.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LWLLDDLDWW last 10
scored 10
from 13.4 xG
conceded 12
from 13.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.60–1.21 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.81–1.11 | 1-1 11% | 56% | 56% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bournemouth 1.19 xGTottenham Hotspur 1.63 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bournemouth attacking right
Tottenham Hotspur attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Tottenham Hotspur |
Lucas Bergvall | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 4' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Mathys Tel | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Xavi Simons |
| 10' |
 Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Evanilson |
| 16' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pedro Porro | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Randal Kolo Muani |
| 18' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Cristian Romero | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mathys Tel |
| 20' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Eli Junior Kroupi |
| 21' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Goal | Marcus Tavernier |
| 28' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pedro Porro | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 30' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Lucas Bergvall | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Djed Spence |
| 35' |
Bournemouth |
Eli Junior Kroupi | 0.65 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Goal | Marcos Senesi |
| 58' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Xavi Simons | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Wilson Odobert |
| 64' |
Bournemouth |
Enes Ünal | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 67' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
João Palhinha | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mathys Tel |
| 68' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Richarlison | 0.46 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Cristian Romero |
| 69' |
Bournemouth |
Enes Ünal | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 77' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Cristian Romero | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Pedro Porro |
| 77' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
João Palhinha | 0.13 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 82' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Micky van de Ven | 0.41 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Cristian Romero |
| 82' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Wilson Odobert | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 83' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Cristian Romero | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mathys Tel |
| 83' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Richarlison | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 84' |
Bournemouth |
Alex Scott | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 84' |
Bournemouth |
David Brooks | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 93' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 93' |
Bournemouth |
David Brooks | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 94' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | David Brooks |
| 99' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Mathys Tel | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Cristian Romero |
Players
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Semenyo AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Alex Scott DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Marcus Tavernier AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| Adrien Truffert DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Lewis Cook DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| James Hill DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Djordje Petrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alejandro Jiménez DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Marcos Senesi DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.65 | 0.04 |
| Eli Junior Kroupi AMC | 68 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.65 | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| Evanilson FW | 68 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| Enes Ünal Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| David Brooks Sub | 22 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| Veljko Milosavljevic Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bafode Diakite Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Amine Adli Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Tottenham Hotspur
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micky van de Ven DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| João Palhinha DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Cristian Romero DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.91 | 0.13 |
| Mathys Tel AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.08 | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| Xavi Simons AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.33 |
| Pedro Porro DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| Rodrigo Bentancur DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Guglielmo Vicario GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Djed Spence DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| Randal Kolo Muani FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| Lucas Bergvall AMR | 61 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Wilson Odobert Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Richarlison Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.61 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Archie Gray Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |