Bournemouth v West Ham United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 16 December 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
29 – 16
On target
9 – 3
Shots in box
15 – 13
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.39 – 1.03
Goals − xG
-1.06 – -0.82
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bournemouth win
65.1%
Draw
18.1%
West Ham United win
16.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bournemouth are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDDLDD last 10
scored 16
from 17.6 xG
conceded 11
from 16.1 xG
West Ham United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLWDWLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 13.5 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 2.44–1.18 | 2-1 9% | 70% | 63% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bournemouth 2.06 xGWest Ham United 1.82 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bournemouth attacking right
West Ham United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Bournemouth |
Dango Ouattara | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Evanilson |
| 3' |
 West Ham United |
Vladimir Coufal | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Konstantinos Mavropanos |
| 5' |
Bournemouth |
Ryan Christie | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Antoine Semenyo |
| 7' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Dango Ouattara |
| 10' |
West Ham United |
Lucas Paquetá | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mohammed Kudus |
| 11' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 13' |
West Ham United |
Max Kilman | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 14' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dean Huijsen |
| 14' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Mohammed Kudus |
| 18' |
West Ham United |
Max Kilman | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Jarrod Bowen |
| 23' |
Bournemouth |
Dango Ouattara | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 24' |
West Ham United |
Lucas Paquetá | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Aaron Wan-Bissaka |
| 25' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mohammed Kudus |
| 28' |
West Ham United |
Carlos Soler | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lucas Paquetá |
| 41' |
West Ham United |
Tomas Soucek | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 44' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Evanilson |
| 44' |
Bournemouth |
Dango Ouattara | 0.45 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 45' |
Bournemouth |
Ryan Christie | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Bournemouth |
Dango Ouattara | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Milos Kerkez |
| 46' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 48' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lewis Cook |
| 49' |
Bournemouth |
Ryan Christie | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Evanilson |
| 54' |
Bournemouth |
Ryan Christie | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lewis Cook |
| 55' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dango Ouattara |
| 56' |
Bournemouth |
Illia Zabarnyi | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Ryan Christie |
| 59' |
West Ham United |
Niclas Füllkrug | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Vladimir Coufal |
| 60' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lucas Paquetá |
| 69' |
West Ham United |
Edson Álvarez | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mohammed Kudus |
| 69' |
West Ham United |
Konstantinos Mavropanos | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lucas Paquetá |
| 70' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ryan Christie |
| 71' |
West Ham United |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Niclas Füllkrug |
| 72' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Ryan Christie |
| 73' |
Bournemouth |
David Brooks | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ryan Christie |
| 78' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ryan Christie |
| 80' |
Bournemouth |
Philip Billing | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Dango Ouattara |
| 80' |
Bournemouth |
Ryan Christie | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Philip Billing |
| 80' |
Bournemouth |
Ryan Christie | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 86' |
West Ham United |
Lucas Paquetá | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 89' |
Bournemouth |
Enes Ünal | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 92' |
Bournemouth |
David Brooks | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 93' |
Bournemouth |
Enes Ünal | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 95' |
Bournemouth |
Milos Kerkez | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 95' |
Bournemouth |
Tyler Adams | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Philip Billing |
| 96' |
West Ham United |
Vladimir Coufal | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Niclas Füllkrug |
| 97' |
Bournemouth |
Dango Ouattara | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Milos Kerkez |
Players
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dango Ouattara AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0.56 | 0.23 | 0.97 |
| Ryan Christie DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 0.26 | 0.32 | 0.45 |
| Illia Zabarnyi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Milos Kerkez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| Kepa GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Dean Huijsen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.21 |
| Lewis Cook DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.29 |
| Evanilson FW | 82 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 0.33 |
| Justin Kluivert AMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Antoine Semenyo AMR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.54 | 0.03 | 0.65 |
| Adam Smith DR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Tyler Adams Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| David Brooks Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Philip Billing Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 0.24 |
| Enes Ünal Sub | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
West Ham United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Paquetá MR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.88 | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| Jarrod Bowen FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| Max Kilman DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Konstantinos Mavropanos DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.18 |
| Vladimir Coufal DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| Tomas Soucek MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.29 |
| Lukasz Fabianski GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Mohammed Kudus ML | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.10 | 0.25 | 0.43 |
| Edson Álvarez DMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Carlos Soler MC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.21 |
| Niclas Füllkrug Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| Crysencio Summerville Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oliver Scarles Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kaelan Casey Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |