Braga v Estoril — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 14 September 2026 · POR-Primeira Liga · 2627

Primeira Liga results-only Prediction generated 9 Sep 2026, 09:54 UTC

Braga

19:45 UTC

Estoril

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 9 Sep, 11:32 · 128h before kick-off

Braga win

60.5%

model 62.5%

Draw

21.2%

model 20.1%

Estoril win

18.2%

model 17.5%

612118

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (248 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 10.3%
2-0 10.2%
2-1 9.9%
1-1 9.4%
3-0 7.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	58.1%	Under 2.5	41.9%
BTTS yes	53.8%	BTTS no	46.2%
Braga 1+	87.1%	Braga 2+	60.6%
Estoril 1+	62.2%	Estoril 2+	25.4%

Expected goals 2.05 – 0.97. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

86/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

100%

★ Best pick

Braga & over 1.5

1X2 & Over/Under · usually 32%

51.9% fair odds 1.93

strong signal · 3002 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Estoril (0:3)

Handicap 0:3 · usually 90%

84.4% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 2683 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Braga carry the stronger rating, 1639 Elo against 1417.
They have had 14 days' rest to Estoril's 7.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Braga have an estimated 60.5% win probability, against 21.2% for the draw and 18.2% for Estoril. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.04 for Braga and 0.97 for Estoril.

Why Braga

Braga carry the stronger rating, 1639 Elo against 1417. They have had 14 days' rest to Estoril's 7.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.2%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Estoril can win

Nothing in the data singles out Estoril.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Braga, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Estoril, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Braga: 58% possession, 10.2 shots a match, 11.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Estoril: 45% possession, 12.6 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·

Braga are the model's most likely outcome at 60.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 10.3%. Confidence 86/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	622017	2.05–0.97	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	622018	2.06–0.99	1-0 10%	59%	55%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga to win	62.5%	60.9%	42.1%	1.44×	1.64
Draw	20.1%	23.6%	26.7%	0.88×	4.23
Estoril to win	17.5%	17.9%	31.3%	0.57×	5.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga & not both score	33.2%	30.9%	26.1%	1.18×	3.24
Braga & both teams score	29.2%	26.5%	16.2%	1.63×	3.78
Draw & both teams score	15.5%	18.1%	20.4%	0.89×	5.52
Estoril & both teams score	9.1%	7.7%	11.7%	0.65×	13.07
Estoril & not both score	8.4%	7.6%	19.8%	0.39×	13.07
Draw & not both score	4.6%	4.2%	6.5%	0.65×	23.90

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga & over 1.5	52.2%	51.9%	31.5%	1.65×	1.93
Braga & over 2.5	41.9%	42.9%	24.7%	1.74×	2.33
Braga & under 3.5	37.5%	36.6%	29.2%	1.25×	2.74
Braga & over 3.5	25.0%	26.4%	13.1%	2.01×	3.79
Braga & under 2.5	20.5%	21.8%	17.6%	1.24×	4.58
Draw & over 1.5	15.5%	17.7%	20.4%	0.87×	5.64
Draw & under 2.5	14.0%	12.4%	17.3%	0.72×	8.05
Draw & under 3.5	14.0%	12.4%	17.3%	0.72×	8.05
Estoril & over 1.5	12.4%	12.4%	22.4%	0.55×	8.06
Estoril & under 3.5	12.9%	12.4%	25.5%	0.49×	8.06
Braga & under 1.5	10.3%	12.4%	10.8%	1.15×	8.06
Estoril & over 2.5	10.1%	12.4%	17.3%	0.72×	8.06
Draw & over 2.5	6.1%	7.6%	9.6%	0.79×	13.21
Draw & over 3.5	6.1%	7.6%	9.6%	0.79×	13.21
Estoril & under 2.5	7.4%	7.6%	14.2%	0.53×	13.21
Estoril & under 1.5	5.1%	7.6%	9.1%	0.83×	13.21
Draw & under 1.5	4.6%	4.4%	6.5%	0.68×	22.79
Estoril & over 3.5	4.6%	4.4%	6.0%	0.73×	22.79

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga (1UP)	74.6%	77.0%	—	—	1.30
Estoril (1UP)	35.5%	38.3%	—	—	2.61

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga (2UP)	62.5%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Estoril (2UP)	17.5%	19.7%	—	—	5.07

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga to win 2nd half	50.2%	48.6%	—	—	2.06
2nd half drawn	31.2%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
Estoril to win 2nd half	18.6%	20.2%	—	—	4.95

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril under 1.5 in 2nd half	88.4%	85.9%	—	—	1.16
Estoril under 0.5 in 2nd half	55.8%	54.8%	—	—	1.83
Estoril over 0.5 in 2nd half	44.2%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
Estoril over 1.5 in 2nd half	11.7%	14.1%	—	—	7.12

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga over 0.5 in 2nd half	68.8%	70.1%	—	—	1.43
Braga under 1.5 in 2nd half	67.5%	70.1%	—	—	1.43
Braga over 1.5 in 2nd half	32.5%	29.9%	—	—	3.34
Braga under 0.5 in 2nd half	31.2%	29.9%	—	—	3.35

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga (+0.5)	82.5%	83.2%	68.7%	1.21×	1.20
Estoril (+2.5)	80.6%	83.2%	89.7%	0.93×	1.20
Braga (-0.5)	62.5%	62.7%	42.1%	1.49×	1.60
Estoril (+1.5)	61.7%	62.7%	77.8%	0.81×	1.60
Braga (-1.5)	38.3%	37.3%	22.2%	1.68×	2.68
Estoril (+0.5)	37.5%	37.3%	57.9%	0.64×	2.68
Braga (-2.5)	19.4%	16.8%	10.3%	1.63×	5.95
Estoril (-0.5)	17.5%	16.8%	31.3%	0.54×	5.95

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril to concede	87.1%	88.1%	73.9%	1.19×	1.14
Estoril clean sheet	12.9%	11.9%	26.1%	0.46×	8.39

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril to concede in 1st half	58.5%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Estoril clean sheet in 1st half	41.5%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril to concede in 2nd half	68.8%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Estoril clean sheet in 2nd half	31.2%	32.5%	—	—	3.08

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril under 6.5 corners	93.3%	90.0%	—	—	1.11
Estoril under 5.5 corners	87.1%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Estoril under 4.5 corners	76.8%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Estoril under 3.5 corners	61.6%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Estoril over 2.5 corners	57.8%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Estoril under 2.5 corners	42.2%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Estoril over 3.5 corners	38.4%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Estoril over 4.5 corners	23.2%	24.0%	—	—	4.16
Estoril over 5.5 corners	12.9%	14.8%	—	—	6.76
Estoril over 6.5 corners	6.7%	10.0%	—	—	9.96

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril under 3.5 goals	98.3%	97.3%	96.1%	1.01×	1.03
Estoril under 2.5 goals	92.5%	92.2%	88.9%	1.04×	1.09
Estoril under 1.5 goals	74.6%	71.6%	65.4%	1.09×	1.40
Estoril over 0.5 goals	62.2%	63.6%	67.6%	0.94×	1.57
Estoril under 0.5 goals	37.8%	36.4%	32.4%	1.12×	2.75
Estoril over 1.5 goals	25.4%	28.4%	34.6%	0.82×	3.52
Estoril over 2.5 goals	7.5%	7.8%	11.1%	0.71×	12.75
Estoril over 3.5 goals	1.7%	2.7%	3.9%	0.70×	37.14

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril under 1.5 in 1st half	94.1%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
Estoril under 0.5 in 1st half	67.8%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Estoril over 0.5 in 1st half	32.2%	32.1%	—	—	3.11
Estoril over 1.5 in 1st half	5.9%	6.1%	—	—	16.30

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril scores equally in both	46.9%	45.5%	—	—	2.20
Estoril scores more in 2nd half	33.1%	33.4%	—	—	3.00
Estoril scores more in 1st half	20.0%	17.4%	—	—	5.76

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga (away no bet)	75.7%	75.6%	61.2%	1.23×	1.32
Draw (away no bet)	24.3%	24.4%	38.8%	0.63×	4.10

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril even goals	57.1%	56.4%	58.6%	0.96×	1.77
Estoril odd goals	42.9%	43.6%	41.4%	1.06×	2.29

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	81.1%	82.3%	—	—	1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals	18.9%	17.7%	—	—	5.65

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	69.3%	66.9%	—	—	1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals	30.7%	33.1%	—	—	3.02

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	63.5%	60.4%	—	—	1.66
Braga to score 2+ in a row	52.9%	51.4%	—	—	1.94
Either team to score 3+ in a row	27.9%	26.7%	—	—	3.74
Braga to score 3+ in a row	24.7%	21.8%	—	—	4.59
Estoril to score 2+ in a row	16.9%	17.0%	—	—	5.88
Estoril to score 3+ in a row	3.5%	3.1%	—	—	31.85

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga corners (+3.5)	95.9%	95.8%	—	—	1.04
Braga corners (+2.5)	92.6%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Braga corners (+1.5)	87.4%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Estoril corners (+3.5)	63.2%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Braga corners (-1.5)	59.4%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Estoril corners (+2.5)	52.2%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Braga corners (-2.5)	47.8%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Estoril corners (+1.5)	40.6%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Braga corners (-3.5)	36.8%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Estoril corners (-1.5)	12.6%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Estoril corners (-2.5)	7.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.58
Estoril corners (-3.5)	4.1%	4.2%	—	—	23.65

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	50.3%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	28.1%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	21.5%	25.6%	—	—	3.91

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	84.8%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	78.5%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	70.5%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	61.0%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	61.0%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Under 8.5 corners	50.3%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	49.7%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 7.5 corners	39.0%	36.7%	—	—	2.73
Over 9.5 corners	39.0%	36.7%	—	—	2.73
Over 10.5 corners	29.5%	27.4%	—	—	3.64
Over 11.5 corners	21.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Over 12.5 corners	15.2%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	10.3%	11.2%	10.8%	1.04×	8.91
2-0	10.2%	11.2%	6.9%	1.62×	8.91
2-1	10.0%	7.4%	7.1%	1.05×	13.45
1-1	9.4%	7.4%	11.0%	0.68×	13.45
3-0	7.0%	7.4%	4.8%	1.55×	13.45
3-1	6.8%	7.4%	4.8%	1.55×	13.45
Any other score	6.0%	7.4%	2.9%	2.54×	13.45
0-1	5.1%	7.4%	9.1%	0.82×	13.45
0-0	4.6%	1.7%	6.5%	0.26×	58.34
0-2	2.3%	1.7%	5.2%	0.33×	58.34
0-3	0.8%	1.7%	3.9%	0.44×	58.35
0-4	0.2%	1.7%	1.2%	1.39×	58.35
1-2	4.7%	1.7%	7.7%	0.22×	58.34
1-3	1.5%	1.7%	1.4%	1.23×	58.34
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.35
2-2	4.8%	1.7%	8.3%	0.21×	58.34
2-3	1.6%	1.7%	1.2%	1.39×	58.34
2-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.6%	2.78×	58.35
3-2	3.3%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.34
3-3	1.1%	1.7%	1.2%	1.39×	58.35
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	11.11×	58.35
4-0	3.6%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	58.34
4-1	3.5%	1.7%	1.4%	1.23×	58.34
4-2	1.7%	1.7%	0.6%	2.78×	58.34
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.3%	5.55×	58.35
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.55×	58.35

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga (2nd half DNB)	73.0%	70.5%	—	—	1.42
Estoril (2nd half DNB)	27.0%	29.5%	—	—	3.39

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga leading at HT (DNB)	74.5%	74.5%	—	—	1.34
Estoril leading at HT (DNB)	25.5%	25.5%	—	—	3.93

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga or draw (1X)	82.5%	82.1%	68.7%	1.20×	1.22
Braga or Estoril (12)	79.9%	76.4%	73.3%	1.04×	1.31
Estoril or draw (X2)	37.5%	39.1%	57.9%	0.68×	2.55

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga or draw at HT	84.3%	83.9%	—	—	1.19
Braga or Estoril at HT	61.5%	62.9%	—	—	1.59
Estoril or draw at HT	54.2%	54.0%	—	—	1.85

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga or draw (1UP)	82.5%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Estoril or draw (1UP)	37.5%	43.3%	—	—	2.31

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga or draw in 2nd half	81.4%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Braga or Estoril in 2nd half	68.8%	67.2%	—	—	1.49
Estoril or draw in 2nd half	49.8%	51.4%	—	—	1.95

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	58.0%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
Neither half drawn	42.0%	45.3%	—	—	2.21

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga (DNB)	78.2%	77.4%	57.4%	1.35×	1.29
Estoril (DNB)	21.8%	22.6%	42.6%	0.53×	4.42

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga to score first	64.7%	64.3%	—	—	1.56
Estoril to score first	30.7%	31.5%	—	—	3.17
No goal scored	4.6%	4.7%	—	—	21.13

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	53.8%	51.6%	48.0%	1.08×	1.94
Not both teams to score	46.2%	48.4%	52.0%	0.93×	2.07

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	44.4%	41.6%	37.2%	1.12×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	32.5%	34.0%	38.0%	0.90×	2.94
Not both score & over 2.5	13.7%	11.9%	14.2%	0.84×	8.41
Both score & under 2.5	9.4%	8.4%	11.0%	0.77×	11.85

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	84.6%	83.0%	86.0%	0.97×	1.20
Both teams to score 2+	15.4%	17.0%	14.0%	1.21×	5.90

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	69.7%	69.5%	—	—	1.44
Both teams to score in 2nd half	30.3%	30.5%	—	—	3.27

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	56.6%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Both score 2nd half only	24.6%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Both score 1st half only	13.1%	11.9%	—	—	8.41
Both score in both halves	5.7%	6.9%	—	—	14.55

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	81.2%	82.6%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	18.8%	17.4%	—	—	5.76

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	59.2%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
A half without a goal	40.8%	42.5%	—	—	2.35

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.4%	43.6%	45.7%	0.96×	2.29
4-6 goals	32.2%	31.2%	27.6%	1.13×	3.21
0-1 goals	20.0%	19.1%	26.1%	0.73×	5.24
7+ goals	3.4%	2.0%	0.9%	2.17×	49.70

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril to score exactly 0	37.8%	36.0%	32.4%	1.11×	2.78
Estoril to score exactly 1	36.8%	36.0%	33.2%	1.09×	2.78
Estoril to score exactly 2	17.9%	18.2%	23.6%	0.77×	5.49
Estoril to score 3+	7.5%	8.6%	11.1%	0.77×	11.63

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga to score 3+	33.5%	32.2%	19.1%	1.68×	3.10
Braga to score exactly 2	27.1%	26.4%	23.6%	1.12×	3.78
Braga to score exactly 1	26.5%	26.4%	31.5%	0.84×	3.78
Braga to score exactly 0	12.9%	13.3%	26.1%	0.51×	7.53

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga leading at HT	45.8%	46.0%	—	—	2.17
Draw at HT	38.5%	37.1%	—	—	2.69
Estoril leading at HT	15.7%	16.1%	—	—	6.22

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga -1: 1	38.3%	36.2%	—	—	2.76
Braga -1: 2	37.5%	36.2%	—	—	2.76
Braga -1: X	24.2%	23.3%	—	—	4.29

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga (0:1)	38.3%	36.2%	22.2%	1.63×	2.76
Estoril (0:1)	37.5%	36.2%	57.9%	0.63×	2.76
Draw (0:1)	24.2%	23.6%	20.1%	1.17×	4.24

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril (0:2)	61.7%	67.1%	77.8%	0.86×	1.49
Braga (0:2)	19.4%	15.7%	10.3%	1.52×	6.38
Draw (0:2)	18.9%	15.7%	12.0%	1.30×	6.38

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril (0:3)	80.6%	84.4%	89.7%	0.94×	1.19
Draw (0:3)	11.2%	11.6%	6.0%	1.92×	8.65
Braga (0:3)	8.1%	6.5%	4.5%	1.45×	15.39

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril (0:4)	91.9%	93.3%	95.5%	0.98×	1.07
Draw (0:4)	5.2%	6.7%	3.2%	2.07×	14.92
Braga (0:4)	2.9%	1.4%	1.4%	1.02×	70.67

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga (1:0)	82.5%	83.0%	68.7%	1.21×	1.21
Draw (1:0)	11.7%	12.5%	17.7%	0.71×	7.97
Estoril (1:0)	5.8%	7.5%	13.7%	0.54×	13.41

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga (2:0)	94.2%	92.9%	86.3%	1.08×	1.08
Draw (2:0)	4.3%	2.8%	7.1%	0.39×	35.88
Estoril (2:0)	1.5%	2.8%	6.8%	0.41×	35.93

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	49.0%	48.3%	—	—	2.07
1st half highest scoring	28.0%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
Halves equal	23.0%	23.2%	—	—	4.31

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga to concede	62.2%	65.0%	67.6%	0.96×	1.54
Braga clean sheet	37.8%	35.0%	32.4%	1.08×	2.86

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga clean sheet in 1st half	67.8%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Braga to concede in 1st half	32.2%	32.5%	—	—	3.08

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga clean sheet in 2nd half	55.8%	54.5%	—	—	1.83
Braga to concede in 2nd half	44.2%	45.5%	—	—	2.20

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga over 2.5 corners	86.4%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Braga over 3.5 corners	74.6%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Braga under 6.5 corners	65.5%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Braga over 4.5 corners	60.8%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Braga under 5.5 corners	53.0%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Braga over 5.5 corners	47.0%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Braga under 4.5 corners	39.2%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Braga over 6.5 corners	34.5%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Braga under 3.5 corners	25.4%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Braga under 2.5 corners	13.6%	13.7%	—	—	7.30

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga over 0.5 goals	87.1%	87.3%	73.9%	1.18×	1.15
Braga under 3.5 goals	84.9%	82.3%	93.5%	0.88×	1.22
Braga under 2.5 goals	66.5%	68.3%	80.9%	0.84×	1.46
Braga over 1.5 goals	60.6%	62.4%	42.6%	1.46×	1.60
Braga under 1.5 goals	39.4%	37.6%	57.4%	0.66×	2.66
Braga over 2.5 goals	33.5%	31.7%	19.1%	1.66×	3.15
Braga over 3.5 goals	15.1%	17.7%	6.5%	2.73×	5.66
Braga under 0.5 goals	12.9%	12.7%	26.1%	0.49×	7.87

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga under 1.5 in 1st half	78.0%	77.4%	—	—	1.29
Braga over 0.5 in 1st half	58.5%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Braga under 0.5 in 1st half	41.5%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Braga over 1.5 in 1st half	22.0%	22.6%	—	—	4.43

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga scores more in 2nd half	42.4%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
Braga scores equally in both	30.0%	32.1%	—	—	3.11
Braga scores more in 1st half	27.6%	27.8%	—	—	3.60

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	53.5%	52.0%	46.0%	1.13×	1.92
Estoril (home no bet)	46.5%	48.0%	54.0%	0.89×	2.08

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga even goals	50.8%	50.9%	54.6%	0.93×	1.96
Braga odd goals	49.2%	49.1%	45.4%	1.08×	2.04

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	28.1%	26.0%	—	—	3.85
HT 1-0	24.8%	22.5%	—	—	4.44
HT 0-1	11.0%	10.9%	—	—	9.16
HT 2-0	10.9%	10.9%	—	—	9.17
HT 1-1	9.6%	8.0%	—	—	12.52
Any other HT score	6.6%	8.0%	—	—	12.55
HT 2-1	4.2%	2.5%	—	—	40.39
HT 0-2	2.1%	2.5%	—	—	40.49
HT 1-2	1.9%	2.5%	—	—	40.50
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.5%	—	—	40.55

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga at HT / Braga at FT	39.9%	39.3%	—	—	2.55
Draw at HT / Braga at FT	19.5%	17.3%	—	—	5.77
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	11.7%	12.0%	—	—	8.33
Estoril at HT / Estoril at FT	8.7%	6.5%	—	—	15.44
Draw at HT / Estoril at FT	7.3%	6.5%	—	—	15.47
Braga at HT / Draw at FT	4.5%	3.6%	—	—	27.51
Estoril at HT / Draw at FT	3.9%	3.6%	—	—	27.53
Estoril at HT / Braga at FT	3.0%	3.6%	—	—	27.55
Braga at HT / Estoril at FT	1.4%	3.6%	—	—	27.60

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga to score last	64.6%	60.5%	—	—	1.65
Estoril to score last	30.8%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
No goal scored	4.6%	4.7%	—	—	21.13

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.4%	95.3%	—	—	1.05
Braga to lead by 1 at any time	74.6%	75.6%	—	—	1.32
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	55.0%	55.5%	—	—	1.80
Braga to lead by 2 at any time	45.1%	46.5%	—	—	2.15
Estoril to lead by 1 at any time	35.5%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	24.8%	21.4%	—	—	4.67
Braga to lead by 3 at any time	22.4%	21.4%	—	—	4.68
Estoril to lead by 2 at any time	10.2%	11.0%	—	—	9.09
Estoril to lead by 3 at any time	2.4%	2.6%	—	—	38.31

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga most corners	70.5%	70.5%	—	—	1.42
Estoril most corners	20.0%	25.7%	—	—	3.88
Corners level	9.5%	8.4%	—	—	11.88

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.9%	87.1%	89.8%	0.97×	1.15
1-4 goals	76.7%	77.9%	83.0%	0.94×	1.28
2-6 goals	76.6%	77.9%	73.1%	1.06×	1.28
2-5 goals	71.5%	72.2%	70.2%	1.03×	1.39
2-4 goals	61.3%	62.7%	63.4%	0.99×	1.60
1-3 goals	59.8%	58.9%	65.3%	0.90×	1.70
3-6 goals	54.7%	52.9%	50.5%	1.05×	1.89
3-5 goals	49.5%	47.4%	47.5%	1.00×	2.11
2-3 goals	44.4%	43.6%	45.7%	0.95×	2.30
3-4 goals	39.3%	39.0%	40.7%	0.96×	2.56
1-2 goals	37.3%	39.0%	42.4%	0.92×	2.56
4-6 goals	32.2%	34.7%	27.6%	1.26×	2.88
4-5 goals	27.1%	28.5%	24.7%	1.15×	3.51
5-6 goals	15.3%	18.9%	9.9%	1.91×	5.30
7+ goals	3.4%	2.3%	0.9%	2.44×	44.22

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga never behind	59.9%	61.5%	—	—	1.63
Estoril never behind	20.9%	25.7%	—	—	3.89

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	50.5%	50.1%	49.8%	1.00×	2.00
Even number of goals	49.5%	49.9%	50.2%	1.00×	2.00

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.9%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.2%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.3%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.7%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.4%	96.0%	93.5%	1.03×	1.04
Under 5.5 goals	91.5%	92.3%	96.1%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	81.2%	81.6%	89.4%	0.91×	1.23
Over 1.5 goals	80.0%	81.6%	73.9%	1.10×	1.23
Under 3.5 goals	64.3%	62.0%	71.6%	0.87×	1.61
Over 2.5 goals	58.1%	57.8%	51.2%	1.13×	1.73
Under 2.5 goals	41.9%	42.2%	48.8%	0.87×	2.37
Over 3.5 goals	35.7%	38.0%	28.4%	1.34×	2.63
Under 1.5 goals	20.0%	18.4%	26.1%	0.70×	5.44
Over 4.5 goals	18.8%	18.4%	10.6%	1.73×	5.44
Over 5.5 goals	8.6%	7.7%	3.9%	2.01×	12.91
Under 0.5 goals	4.6%	4.0%	6.5%	0.61×	25.18

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.4%	97.3%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	90.5%	92.0%	95.9%	0.96×	1.09
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	77.4%	76.0%	87.1%	0.87×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	74.4%	72.1%	66.3%	1.09×	1.39
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	54.0%	52.0%	63.2%	0.82×	1.92
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	46.0%	48.0%	36.8%	1.30×	2.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	25.6%	27.9%	33.7%	0.83×	3.59
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	22.6%	24.0%	12.9%	1.86×	4.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	9.5%	8.0%	4.1%	1.93×	12.50
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.6%	2.7%	1.0%	2.86×	36.69

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	86.4%	88.4%	—	—	1.13
Over 0.5 in 1st half	71.9%	73.8%	—	—	1.36
Under 1.5 in 1st half	63.9%	65.1%	—	—	1.54
Over 1.5 in 1st half	36.1%	34.9%	—	—	2.87
Under 0.5 in 1st half	28.1%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Over 2.5 in 1st half	13.6%	11.6%	—	—	8.58

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	82.7%	82.5%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	74.4%	75.7%	—	—	1.32
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	47.9%	50.5%	—	—	1.98
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	52.1%	49.5%	—	—	2.02
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	25.6%	24.3%	—	—	4.12
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	17.3%	17.5%	—	—	5.72

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril not to score in both halves	85.8%	85.5%	—	—	1.17
Braga not to score in both halves	59.7%	60.2%	—	—	1.66
Braga to score in both halves	40.3%	39.8%	—	—	2.51
Estoril to score in both halves	14.2%	14.5%	—	—	6.91

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	53.8%	54.3%	48.0%	1.13×	1.84
Only Braga scores	33.2%	31.4%	26.1%	1.21×	3.18
Only Estoril scores	8.4%	7.1%	19.8%	0.36×	14.09
Neither team scores	4.6%	4.1%	6.5%	0.63×	24.66

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	22.0%	22.3%	22.8%	0.97×	4.49
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.3%	23.0%	0.97×	4.49
Exactly 4 goals	16.9%	17.6%	17.9%	0.98×	5.68
Exactly 1 goals	15.4%	17.6%	19.8%	0.89×	5.68
Exactly 5 goals	10.2%	12.3%	6.9%	1.77×	8.15
6 or more goals	8.6%	7.8%	3.9%	2.01×	12.88
Exactly 0 goals	4.6%	4.0%	6.5%	0.62×	24.72

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.8%	36.9%	—	—	2.71
No goals in 1st half	28.1%	25.8%	—	—	3.88
2 goals in 1st half	22.6%	21.6%	—	—	4.63
3+ goals in 1st half	13.6%	11.4%	—	—	8.75

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	52.1%	49.5%	—	—	2.02
1 goal in 2nd half	30.6%	34.3%	—	—	2.92
No goals in 2nd half	17.3%	16.4%	—	—	6.09

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril not to win both halves	97.1%	97.3%	—	—	1.03
Braga not to win both halves	77.1%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Braga to win both halves	22.9%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
Estoril to win both halves	2.9%	2.7%	—	—	37.07

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga to win either half	73.1%	70.1%	—	—	1.43
Estoril to win neither half	68.6%	68.8%	—	—	1.45
Estoril to win either half	31.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
Braga to win neither half	26.9%	29.9%	—	—	3.35

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril not to win to nil	91.6%	92.3%	80.2%	1.15×	1.08
Braga not to win to nil	66.8%	69.5%	73.9%	0.94×	1.44
Braga to win to nil	33.2%	30.5%	26.1%	1.17×	3.28
Estoril to win to nil	8.4%	7.7%	19.8%	0.39×	13.07

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga by 1	24.2%	23.4%	20.1%	1.17×	4.27
Draw	20.1%	23.4%	26.7%	0.88×	4.27
Braga by 2	18.9%	17.2%	12.0%	1.43×	5.80
Braga by 3+	19.4%	17.2%	10.3%	1.67×	5.80
Estoril by 1	11.7%	11.8%	17.7%	0.67×	8.45
Estoril by 2	4.3%	3.0%	7.1%	0.42×	33.44
Estoril by 3+	1.5%	3.0%	6.8%	0.44×	33.47