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Brentford v Bournemouth — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 2 September 2023 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG

2–2
3.07 – 2.11 xG
Shots
21 – 12
On target
7 – 5
Shots in box
16 – 8
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.68 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-1.07 – -0.11
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.91.72.63.40'15'30'45'60'75'90'Mathias Jensen 6' — goalDominic Solanke 29' — goalDavid Brooks 76' — goalBryan Mbeumo 92' — goal
Brentford 3.07 xGBournemouth 2.11 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Mathias Jensen 6' — Goal (0.06 xG, Direct Freekick)Vitaly Janelt 10' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Dominic Solanke 18' — Saved Shot (0.38 xG, Open Play)Antoine Semenyo 19' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Ryan Christie 19' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Kevin Schade 21' — Saved Shot (0.32 xG, Open Play)Yoane Wissa 23' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Ryan Christie 27' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Dominic Solanke 29' — Goal (0.11 xG, Open Play)Justin Kluivert 29' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Ethan Pinnock 33' — Missed Shot (0.42 xG, Set Piece)Aaron Hickey 39' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Antoine Semenyo 44' — Saved Shot (0.27 xG, Open Play)Bryan Mbeumo 46' — Missed Shot (0.45 xG, Open Play)Vitaly Janelt 47' — Saved Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Ryan Christie 48' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Christian Nørgaard 54' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Kevin Schade 54' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Set Piece)Philip Billing 56' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Philip Billing 57' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Yoane Wissa 58' — Shot On Post (0.14 xG, Open Play)Rico Henry 63' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Christian Nørgaard 73' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, From Corner)Frank Onyeka 73' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Keane Lewis-Potter 75' — Shot On Post (0.50 xG, Open Play)David Brooks 76' — Goal (0.97 xG, Open Play)David Brooks 80' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Kristoffer Ajer 82' — Saved Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Michael Olakigbe 84' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Keane Lewis-Potter 90' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Bryan Mbeumo 92' — Goal (0.30 xG, Open Play)Frank Onyeka 96' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Yoane Wissa 96' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)
Brentford attacking right Bournemouth attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
6' Brentford Mathias Jensen 0.06 Direct Freekick Right Foot Goal
10' Brentford Vitaly Janelt 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
18' Bournemouth Dominic Solanke 0.38 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Ryan Christie
19' Bournemouth Antoine Semenyo 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Dominic Solanke
19' Bournemouth Ryan Christie 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
21' Brentford Kevin Schade 0.32 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Christian Nørgaard
23' Brentford Yoane Wissa 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Kevin Schade
27' Bournemouth Ryan Christie 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Philip Billing
29' Bournemouth Dominic Solanke 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Goal Marcos Senesi
29' Bournemouth Justin Kluivert 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
33' Brentford Ethan Pinnock 0.42 Set Piece Missed Shot Mathias Jensen
39' Brentford Aaron Hickey 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
44' Bournemouth Antoine Semenyo 0.27 Open Play Saved Shot
46' Brentford Bryan Mbeumo 0.45 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
47' Brentford Vitaly Janelt 0.13 Open Play Saved Shot Kevin Schade
48' Bournemouth Ryan Christie 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
54' Brentford Christian Nørgaard 0.03 From Corner Missed Shot Mathias Jensen
54' Brentford Kevin Schade 0.07 Set Piece Missed Shot Ben Mee
56' Bournemouth Philip Billing 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Justin Kluivert
57' Bournemouth Philip Billing 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Milos Kerkez
58' Brentford Yoane Wissa 0.14 Open Play Left Foot Shot On Post Rico Henry
63' Brentford Rico Henry 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
73' Brentford Christian Nørgaard 0.09 From Corner Saved Shot Bryan Mbeumo
73' Brentford Frank Onyeka 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot
75' Brentford Keane Lewis-Potter 0.50 Open Play Left Foot Shot On Post Frank Onyeka
76' Bournemouth David Brooks 0.97 Open Play Left Foot Goal Marcus Tavernier
80' Bournemouth David Brooks 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Philip Billing
82' Brentford Kristoffer Ajer 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Bryan Mbeumo
84' Brentford Michael Olakigbe 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Christian Nørgaard
90' Brentford Keane Lewis-Potter 0.03 Open Play Missed Shot Frank Onyeka
92' Brentford Bryan Mbeumo 0.30 Open Play Left Foot Goal Nathan Collins
96' Brentford Frank Onyeka 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
96' Brentford Yoane Wissa 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Frank Onyeka

Players

Bournemouth

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Dominic Solanke FW 90 1 0 2 1 0.49 0.06 0.64
Ryan Christie DMC 90 0 0 3 1 0.12 0.38 0.59
Philip Billing AMC 90 0 0 2 2 0.09 0.10 0.19
Neto GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.38
Milos Kerkez DL 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.58
Max Aarons DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Marcos Senesi DC 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.11 0.25
Lewis Cook DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.16
Illia Zabarnyi DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Justin Kluivert AML 74 0 0 1 1 0.05 0.07 0.54
Antoine Semenyo AMR 63 0 0 2 0 0.32 0.00 0.73
David Brooks Sub 27 1 0 2 0 1.04 0.00 1.04
Marcus Tavernier Sub 16 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.97 0.97
Chris Mepham Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Brentford

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Bryan Mbeumo FWR 90 1 0 2 2 0.75 0.21 1.81
Ethan Pinnock DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.42 0.00 0.40
Yoane Wissa FW 90 0 0 3 0 0.35 0.00 1.30
Christian Nørgaard MC 90 0 0 2 2 0.12 0.37 1.26
Rico Henry DL 90 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.14 0.18
Mark Flekken GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.37
Aaron Hickey DR 85 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.34
Mathias Jensen MC 84 1 0 1 2 0.06 0.45 0.82
Ben Mee DC 84 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.59
Kevin Schade FWL 74 0 0 2 2 0.39 0.22 0.68
Vitaly Janelt MC 74 0 0 2 0 0.19 0.00 0.33
Keane Lewis-Potter Sub 16 0 0 2 0 0.53 0.00 0.53
Frank Onyeka Sub 16 0 0 2 3 0.07 0.65 0.71
Kristoffer Ajer Sub 6 0 0 1 0 0.12 0.00 0.24
Nathan Collins Sub 6 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.30 0.30
Michael Olakigbe Sub 5 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.05
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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