Brentford v Bournemouth — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 9 November 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 15
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
10 – 11
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
0.19 – 1.09
Goals − xG
+1.44 – -0.49
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brentford win
45.6%
Draw
22.6%
Bournemouth win
31.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brentford are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLWLDDWDD last 10
scored 14
from 19.1 xG
conceded 12
from 18.2 xG
Bournemouth are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDDLDD last 10
scored 16
from 17.6 xG
conceded 11
from 16.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.83–1.50 | 1-1 10% | 65% | 65% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brentford 1.56 xGBournemouth 2.49 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brentford attacking right
Bournemouth attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Bournemouth |
Lewis Cook | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tyler Adams |
| 7' |
Bournemouth |
Lewis Cook | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 10' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ryan Christie |
| 14' |
Bournemouth |
Marcos Senesi | 0.61 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ryan Christie |
| 16' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.84 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 21' |
 Brentford |
Vitaly Janelt | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 26' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.36 | Open Play | — | Goal | — |
| 28' |
Bournemouth |
Lewis Cook | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Evanilson |
| 36' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Evanilson |
| 36' |
Bournemouth |
Tyler Adams | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 38' |
Brentford |
Mikkel Damsgaard | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Keane Lewis-Potter |
| 39' |
Brentford |
Vitaly Janelt | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Bournemouth |
Ryan Christie | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Justin Kluivert |
| 48' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.35 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Lewis Cook |
| 49' |
Brentford |
Mikkel Damsgaard | 0.22 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 57' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Vitaly Janelt |
| 66' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Vitaly Janelt |
| 72' |
Brentford |
Christian Nørgaard | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Keane Lewis-Potter |
| 76' |
Brentford |
Mathias Jensen | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 79' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.07 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 81' |
Brentford |
Sepp van den Berg | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Keane Lewis-Potter |
| 84' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.15 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Nathan Collins |
| 92' |
Brentford |
Sepp van den Berg | 0.10 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ethan Pinnock |
| 93' |
Bournemouth |
Enes Ünal | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Milos Kerkez |
| 96' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kepa |
| 96' |
Bournemouth |
Dean Huijsen | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 97' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dean Huijsen |
Players
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evanilson FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.84 | 0.10 | 0.94 |
| Antoine Semenyo AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Lewis Cook DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| Milos Kerkez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.44 |
| Illia Zabarnyi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Kepa GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Adam Smith DR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Justin Kluivert AML | 78 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.35 | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| Ryan Christie AMC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.68 | 0.23 |
| Marcos Senesi DC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.61 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Tyler Adams DMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.15 |
| Dean Huijsen Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.03 | 0.21 |
| Marcus Tavernier Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| Enes Ünal Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| David Brooks Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Julián Araujo Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Brentford
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yoane Wissa FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.69 | 0.00 | 1.07 |
| Mikkel Damsgaard FWL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.06 | 0.44 |
| Sepp van den Berg DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vitaly Janelt MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.39 | 0.55 |
| Bryan Mbeumo FWR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.22 | 0.38 |
| Nathan Collins DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.58 |
| Mark Flekken GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Keane Lewis-Potter DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.56 |
| Ethan Pinnock DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.48 |
| Christian Nørgaard MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Mathias Jensen MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Yehor Yarmolyuk Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kevin Schade Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Fabio Carvalho Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yunus Konak Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |