Brentford v Brighton and Hove Albion — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 21 February 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 11
On target
3 – 7
Shots in box
9 – 6
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
1.01 – 0.07
Goals − xG
-1.69 – +0.63
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brentford win
53.5%
Draw
24.8%
Brighton and Hove Albion win
21.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brentford are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLWLDDWDD last 10
scored 14
from 19.1 xG
conceded 12
from 18.2 xG
Brighton and Hove Albion have scored 19 from 19.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDWLWLLWLD last 10
scored 19
from 19.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.94–1.19 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.00–1.32 | 2-1 10% | 65% | 63% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brentford 1.69 xGBrighton and Hove Albion 1.37 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brentford attacking right
Brighton and Hove Albion attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Brighton and Hove Albion |
Lewis Dunk | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 6' |
 Brentford |
Mathias Jensen | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 12' |
Brentford |
Keane Lewis-Potter | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 15' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jack Hinshelwood | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kaoru Mitoma |
| 19' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jack Hinshelwood |
| 23' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
James Milner | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 24' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jordan Henderson |
| 24' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 26' |
Brentford |
Vitaly Janelt | 0.04 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 29' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Diego Gómez | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 29' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Ferdi Kadioglu | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Kaoru Mitoma |
| 32' |
Brentford |
Sepp van den Berg | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 35' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jack Hinshelwood | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Danny Welbeck |
| 38' |
Brentford |
Vitaly Janelt | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jordan Henderson |
| 45' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Yehor Yarmolyuk |
| 45' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.62 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 54' |
Brentford |
Nathan Collins | 0.08 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Mathias Jensen |
| 57' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Pascal Groß | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ferdi Kadioglu |
| 70' |
Brentford |
Mathias Jensen | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Nathan Collins |
| 73' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jack Hinshelwood | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 75' |
Brentford |
Dango Ouattara | 0.60 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Thiago |
| 77' |
Brentford |
Kristoffer Ajer | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Dango Ouattara |
| 78' |
Brentford |
Sepp van den Berg | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 86' |
Brentford |
Mikkel Damsgaard | 0.27 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dango Ouattara |
Players
Brighton and Hove Albion
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Welbeck FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.62 | 0.04 | 0.68 |
| Kaoru Mitoma FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.42 | 0.04 | 0.55 |
| Pascal Groß MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.58 |
| Jack Hinshelwood MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.33 | 1.21 |
| Lewis Dunk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| James Milner MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Ferdi Kadioglu DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.55 |
| Bart Verbruggen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Jan Paul van Hecke DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Diego Gómez FWR | 83 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Mats Wieffer DR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Joël Veltman Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Maxim De Cuyper Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlos Baleba Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Brentford
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dango Ouattara AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.60 | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| Thiago FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.60 | 0.37 |
| Sepp van den Berg DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Mathias Jensen AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| Caoimhin Kelleher GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Rico Henry DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Kristoffer Ajer DC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jordan Henderson DMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| Vitaly Janelt DMC | 53 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Keane Lewis-Potter AMR | 53 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Nathan Collins Sub | 46 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.28 |
| Aaron Hickey DR | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Kevin Schade Sub | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yehor Yarmolyuk Sub | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.29 |
| Mikkel Damsgaard Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Romelle Donovan Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |