Brentford v Brighton and Hove Albion — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 19 April 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 12
On target
8 – 3
Shots in box
14 – 7
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
1.44 – 0.23
Goals − xG
+1.04 – +0.76
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brentford win
38.0%
Draw
25.9%
Brighton and Hove Albion win
36.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brentford are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLWLDDWDD last 10
scored 14
from 19.1 xG
conceded 12
from 18.2 xG
Brighton and Hove Albion have scored 19 from 19.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDWLWLLWLD last 10
scored 19
from 19.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.40–1.36 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.65–1.55 | 1-1 10% | 62% | 64% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brentford 2.96 xGBrighton and Hove Albion 1.24 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brentford attacking right
Brighton and Hove Albion attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Brighton and Hove Albion |
Matt O'Riley | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 2' |
 Brentford |
Christian Nørgaard | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 2' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kevin Schade |
| 8' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Keane Lewis-Potter |
| 11' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yankuba Minteh | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | João Pedro |
| 17' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jack Hinshelwood | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Matt O'Riley |
| 18' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Matt O'Riley | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Danny Welbeck |
| 23' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 28' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Estupiñán |
| 33' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
João Pedro | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 47' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Yoane Wissa |
| 47' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Goal | Mats Wieffer |
| 53' |
Brentford |
Christian Nørgaard | 0.13 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 53' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.38 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 54' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nathan Collins |
| 55' |
Brentford |
Nathan Collins | 0.41 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 57' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 64' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.53 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 69' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kristoffer Ajer |
| 78' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mats Wieffer |
| 80' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.31 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jack Hinshelwood |
| 84' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Diego Gómez | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 85' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 94' |
Brentford |
Christian Nørgaard | 0.41 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Mathias Jensen |
| 98' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Diego Gómez | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 99' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Vitaly Janelt |
| 100' |
Brentford |
Sepp van den Berg | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
Players
Brighton and Hove Albion
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hinshelwood DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.31 | 0.51 |
| Jan Paul van Hecke DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Estupiñán DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| Lewis Dunk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Mats Wieffer DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| Bart Verbruggen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Danny Welbeck FW | 81 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.07 | 0.27 |
| Carlos Baleba DMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Matt O'Riley AMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 0.26 |
| Yankuba Minteh AMR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| João Pedro AML | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| Kaoru Mitoma Sub | 21 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Solly March Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Diego Gómez Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yasin Ayari Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Simon Adingra Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Eiran Cashin Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Brentford
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yoane Wissa FW | 90 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0.87 | 0.05 | 0.49 |
| Kevin Schade AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.59 | 0.29 | 0.88 |
| Christian Nørgaard DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Bryan Mbeumo AMR | 90 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0.47 | 1.06 | 0.69 |
| Nathan Collins DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.07 | 0.63 |
| Sepp van den Berg DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Mikkel Damsgaard AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Mark Flekken GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Yehor Yarmolyuk DMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Keane Lewis-Potter DL | 80 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.63 |
| Michael Kayode DR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Kristoffer Ajer Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Mathias Jensen Sub | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.09 |
| Rico Henry Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vitaly Janelt Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Gustavo Nunes Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yunus Konak Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |